Trump's Home District Elects a Democratic Representative in Florida Special Election

A Democrat will now represent President Donald Trump’s backyard in the state House of Representatives after a high-profile Florida special election.

Earlier this week, the Associated Press reported that Democratic candidate Emily Gregory won Florida’s 87th State House District, which is home to Mar-a-Lago, by approximately 2.4 percentage points, or 797 votes. The seat was left open when Republican Mike Caruso, the incumbent since 2022, stepped down to become Palm Beach County clerk of the Circuit Court and comptroller. Caruso won his 2024 election in the district by 19 percentage points, and the district went for Trump by 11 points in the 2024 presidential election.

Gregory, a first-time candidate, beat Republican Jon Maples, who had received Trump’s endorsement in the race back in January and again the day before the election. (He also voted for Maples by mail after calling for restrictions on mail-in voting.)

Gregory’s win was not the only Democratic victory in Florida. Brian Nathan, also a first-time candidate, won his special election against Republican state Rep. Josie Tomkow for a Hillsborough County Senate seat, which includes Tampa, by 408 votes, the Florida Phoenix reported.

Some Democrats quickly began reading the tea leaves after Gregory’s win, including state Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried, who said, “This victory reiterates an undeniable trend in Florida: with year round organizing and infrastructure investment, Democrats can run and win anywhere—including Donald Trump’s backyard.”

Indeed, Democrats have been winning almost everywhere in recent weeks. As The New York Times noted, Democrats have “flipped more than two dozen seats in Republican or battleground states, including ones in Arkansas and New Hampshire earlier this month, while the Republicans have not captured any Democratic seats.” But Democrats may be touting their midterm gains prematurely.

State-level races are not necessarily predictors of midterm success, and Gregory’s win is not completely unprecedented. Her district is not exactly “deep-red“ territory as described by CNN; from 2012 to 2022, Democrats held the state House seat. Gregory’s district is also located in Palm Beach County, which Kamala Harris narrowly won in 2024.

If Democrats want to replicate these special election results during the midterms, a feat that might not be hard to do given Trump’s record-low approval ratings, they would have to appeal to independents, who make up nearly half of the country. While independents are no monolith, a majority say that “lowering prices” should be a top priority, according to a January 2026 NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. With only 25 percent of Americans saying they approve of Trump’s policies to ease the cost of living (a crisis that has been exacerbated by his unpopular and illegal trade policies and his war of choice in Iran that has made energy more expensive), Democrats could have an upper hand on the issue.

Still, there are several reasons to be skeptical that Democrats will, in fact, seize the issue come November. As the Trump administration has enacted policies that expand the size of government and increase the cost of living, Democrats in Congress and state governments have proposed their own set of big-government policies that stifle economic growth and make everyone poorer.

For now, it’s clear that voters are growing sick of Trump’s foreign policy and economic plans. Democrats could seize on this and have remarkable success in the midterms, but maintaining popularity after the election will require them to come up with ideas that meaningfully tackle affordability, instead of repackaging Trump’s big-government policies.

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