The Missile Gap

China is currently the largest global military power stocked fully with advanced missile capabilities. The US, NATO, Russia, and their allies have been burning though their advanced and semi-advanced missiles over Ukraine and in the Middle East, using up their Cold War stocks and their more modern reserves. Drones, while a low cost and simple weapon, have been most effective in tricking advanced militaries into depleting their high tech and expensive partially AI based weapons. By targeting the swarms of drones early on in Ukraine with the most advanced of weapons, Western allies of Ukraine burned through their best defenses, leaving no protection against more advance hypersonic missile systems. Even older Cold War SS-21 and SS-23 systems were able to defeat many modern systems, with the older HIMARS piercing the majority of Russian air defense networks. The solution was always to counter drones with older Cold War anti-air systems like the Gepard, ZSU-23-4 and well stocked ZSU-23-2 systems, now they seem to be the only systems left in reasonable quantities as drone killers.

With Russia and Iran on the downturn, Venezuela now preoccupied, and Cuba on the verge of collapse, the leverage the US and the West has over traditional adversaries is large, save Russia’s intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities. North Korea as a threat could be controlled by China most likely, with constant demonstrations of their ballistic missile systems in flight, reminding Japan and South Korea of their nuclear prowess in the region and abroad. China’s growing missile forces will need to be over matched by the US in short time, with all types of missiles needed to counter a possible future conflict. Concentrating the support for defense of Ukraine on European allies and their abilities to produce their own missile systems was likely the only best option, as the US is the only major Western power that could put up a naval and missile deterrent in China’s region. To stop a future war, the US and their allies need to show strength and resolve, with the close support of AUKUS allies like Australia, and regional powers like Japan and perhaps India needed to deter further conflict until they can reduce the missile gap with China. Until the US can build itself up back to full strength, it must reduce other global security issues so that small wars will not lead to a massive conflict in Asia.

The US policy of picking off China’s allies while putting in economic and policy pressure is a gamble that could accelerate a conflict, or could possibly eliminate it entirely. Focusing on the control of oil and gas to China from first Venezuela, and now possibly Iran, is a passive deterrent towards China. While no one would wish to see a lack of energy in China leading to a lack of heat and utilities for their population, control of their oil imports by using US allies as the supplier could tie their economy further with the West and disincentivise a future conflict. Environmental policies in places like the EU and Canada should not stop the sale of energy to allies, or to China if it could lead to a reduction in a hot conflict or future war. For this reason, actions and negotiations with China tied regimes should focus on a rapid solution, as long term negotiations will lead to more innocents being killed in Ukraine, more free Iranians losing their freedoms and lives, more tensions in the border region between Pakistan, India, and China. Suspicions of issues inside of China may allow with time an unravelling of Xi’s hold on power with an unpredictable result. Allowing negotiated delays could lead to one of Iran’s allies passing more ballistic or even nuclear capabilities towards their regime, as was achieved by North Korea when a famine was less of a priority than gaining a deterrent for their regime. Policy, power and actual military strength must come with all of the above approaches, with the first step being to do their homework before engaging in a security discussion.