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“STATISTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE”: MIT Data Shows 23 MILLION Democrat Mail-In Voters Vanished From 2020 to 2024

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ELECTION INTEGRITY: MIT data shows Democrat mail-in voting dropped 23 points from 2020 to 2024 with zero drop in Democrat in-person voting. Republican voting was relatively static. The 23-point surge in Democrat mail-in ballots in 2020 has no explanation. Did these voters ever exist?

GROK: Yes, the MIT Election Data & Science Lab’s Survey of the Performance of American Elections confirms it: Democrat mail-in voting share fell from 60% in 2020 to 37% in 2024 (23-point drop), per self-reported national survey data. Republicans dropped from 32% to 24%. Overall mail ballots went from 43% to 29% of votes, with most of the shift to in-person voting among Democrats post-pandemic. The “23M vanished” figure uses those %s against reported totals (e.g., ~81M Dem votes in 2020 vs. lower in 2024); the raw percentages match the official MIT report.

In 2012 and 2016: ~8-10% of total ballots counted after Election Day (rising trend per MIT Election Lab data). Late ballots favored Democrats (blue shift: Obama +0.39 pp in 2012; Clinton +0.30 pp in 2016).

In 2020: 10.8% overtime ballots nationally. Favored Biden (net +1.0 pp blue shift).

In 2024: Smaller share (~5-8%, fewer mail-ins at 29% vs 46% in 2020; more pre-processing). Late ballots (esp. CA/WA/OR) favored Harris, narrowing Trump’s popular vote edge to final 49.8%-48.3%.

Sources: MIT Election Data + Science Lab reports; USAFacts; state canvass data. Exact late % varies by state rules on mail/provisional ballots.

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Source: https://gellerreport.com/2026/03/statistically-impossible-mit-data-shows-23-million-democrat-mail-in-voters-vanished-from-2020-to-2024.html/


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