Your Fault: Hotcoldwetdry Could Maybe Possibly Triple The Price Of Wheat

It’s your fault if only cake is left

Climate change could triple the price of wheat

Bread, pasta and breakfast cereals may seem far removed from dry fields in North America, Europe or Asia. Yet when water shortages hit several of the world’s most important wheat-growing regions simultaneously, the consequences can be felt all the way to supermarket shelves and bakery aisles.

This is the conclusion of a new international study published in the journal Earth’s Future. Researchers combined climate data, crop production areas and global commodity prices to investigate how drought affects wheat markets worldwide. The findings are striking: The extent of severe water scarcity alone can explain around 74% of annual fluctuations in global wheat prices between 2000 and 2021.

Among the co-authors is Jørgen E. Olesen, professor and head of the Department of Agroecology at Aarhus University.

“We already know that climate change affects agricultural production. What is new here is that we can document a clear link between widespread drought across the globe and the prices faced by consumers and food markets,” he says.

They’re literally looking for things to scaremonger over. Wheat was down in 2025 in the US mostly because more are growing soybeans and corn (like to use as biofuels). Other areas of the world had fantastic crops.

At around 2 degrees of global warming, the model estimates an average wheat price of approximately USD 273 per tonne. At 3 degrees of warming, that figure rises to about USD 364 per tonne, roughly three times the inflation-adjusted global wheat price recorded in 2010.

So, sometime way in the future.

The researchers emphasize that drought is not the only factor influencing wheat prices. Energy and fertilizer costs, grain stocks, trade policies and geopolitical conflicts also play important roles. However, the study identifies a climate-driven factor that has previously been difficult to quantify and that already appears to be influencing global markets. That makes the findings relevant far beyond agriculture.

In other words, the other things are very important and the weather changes.