Rising gasoline prices lead inflation surge in March

San José, CA – On Friday, April 9 the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their report on consumer prices for March. The Consumer Price Index, or CPI surged 0.9% in March, three times as high as the price increase in February. The increase in consumer prices over the past year shot up from 2.4% in February to 3.3% in March. This year-over-year inflation rate is up by a whole percentage point from 2.3% last March, just before Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.

The rise in prices was led by gasoline, up 21.2% in March. While the prices for consumer goods and services other than food and energy, or the so-called “core inflation rate” only ticked up 0.2% in March, the rise in fuel prices started to spill over into other goods and services. Airline fares, where jet fuel is a major cost, rose 2.7% in the month of March, and 14.9% from a year earlier.

This increase in prices and the rate of inflation follows the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, launched in the last days of February. In response to the massive U.S.-Israeli bombings, with well over 10,000 targets, Iran has retaliated against U.S. bases and businesses in the Persian Gulf and Israel itself. In addition, Iran has taken control of the Straits of Hormuz, through which flowed about 30% of the world’s exported oil, and large amounts of natural gas, urea (used to make fertilizer), and helium, used in chip manufacturing and other high-tech goods like MRI machines.

With a relative ceasefire, Trump administration negotiators led by Vice President Vance are meeting with Iranian representatives for talks hosted by Pakistan. The flow of oil, fuels and chemicals is still just a trickle, mainly ships holding Iranian oil, which now fetch almost twice as much as before the war started because of the rise in the price of oil and the fact that the Trump administration lifted sanctions on their oil. Even though oil futures have dropped back down below $100 a barrel, this is still 50% higher than their pre-war prices. The purchase price of actual, or physical oil, is another $30 a barrel higher. Even worse, with the last shiploads of oil that made it out of the Persian Gulf unloading their oil at their destinations, the soaring price of oil will soon become a physical shortage of oil in more countries.

Not surprisingly, this surge in prices weighed on consumers’ confidence. The University of Michigan’s Sentiment Index fell to a record low of 47.6. This is the lowest in the survey’s 74-year history, lower than the 2008 financial crisis and the oil-price shock of 1979 after the revolution in Iran that ended the reign of the U.S.-backed Shah of Iran and the beginning of today’s Islamic Republic.

With prices soaring, more and more Americans who were living paycheck to paycheck are falling behind. One of the businesses benefitting from hard times are pawn shops, which reported more business in March. There are now corporate chains of pawn shops, whose stocks are at multi-year highs, in effect profiting from economic problems.

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