Polling Expert: How the 2024 Election Will Play Out - Nate Silver (Video)
In this 3 October 2024 Modern Wisdom video, host Chris Williamson talks with Nate Silver, a statistician, a writer and Founder of FiveThirtyEight.
No one truly knows who will win an election, but if anyone does, it’s Nate. He is the man behind the most accurate, sophisticated polling data assessments in America and has an insight into modern culture like no one else.
Expect to learn why this election cycle differs from other ones, just how complex election prediction models are, what the most important topics of this election are, whether there is ever a chance for a 3rd party option to become president, the role of the media in determining who wins and more.
https://youtu.be/fRCrZSS1fek
00:00 How Nate Mastered Sports Betting
04:01 Models Used to Predict Elections
08:03 The Way People Vote Today
11:02 Why Kamala Harris Isn’t Appearing on Podcasts
14:54 Do Debates Change People’s Minds?
17:22 The Impact of Running Mates
23:53 Have the Assassination Attempts Impacted the Election?
30:16 The States That Decide the Election
32:50 Likelihood of a Third-Party Candidate Being Elected
37:39 The Power of ‘the Village & the River’
44:48 Nate’s Experiences With Sam Bankman-Fried
49:24 Why Crypto Investors Are More Likely to Be Scammed
56:29 Psychology of High Risk-Takers
1:01:54 The Price You Pay to Be Nate Silver
1:04:30 Nate’s Core Values
1:10:13 Where to Find Nate
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