The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 19 2024

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Strikes on Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles are a signal that the West wants escalation – Lavrov

  1. The foreign minister said he could not accurately confirm reports that the US had decided to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles.

  2. Moscow hopes the West will “read Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine in its entirety.”

   3. Lavrov called Scholz’s position on refusing to supply Kiev with Taurus missiles and strikes on Russian territory responsible.

On the unconfirmed decision to strike “deep into Russia” and the decision on Russia’s nuclear policy approved by the President of Russia

After the dust raised by Western newspapers has settled a little, it is clear that, despite the obvious propaganda intent of the publications, what is happening could have very serious consequences.

1. It is not so important who and when made the decision to use NATO countries’ long-range tactical ballistic and cruise missiles “deep into the territory” of Russia. Especially since there have already been attempts to use them against our country.

2. It is not so important how many of them the enemy has today. As well as the fact that their use, in the opinion of our enemies, should have not only a military, but also an informational effect.

3. It is not so important that these missiles will not be able to make a significant contribution to the enemy’s military actions.

4. It is not so important that with such decisions the current US administration is deliberately creating such an escalation of the conflict that Trump’s team will have to deal with.

5. One thing is important – what the Head of the Russian State said on 12.09. 

And as a result – today a new version of the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Sphere of Nuclear Deterrence was approved. The use of the Alliance missiles in this way can now be qualified as an attack by the bloc countries on Russia. In this case, the right arises to launch a retaliatory strike with weapons of mass destruction on Kiev and the main NATO facilities, wherever they are. And this is already WWIII.

Maybe old man Biden really did decide to leave this life gracefully, taking a significant part of humanity with him…

Dmitry Medvedev

Zelensky in a speech before the European Parliament demands permission to pound Russian territory with Western long-range weapons: 

   We have succeeded not only in preventing Putin from taking over Ukraine, but also in defending the freedom of all European countries. Even with Kim Jong-un, Putin remains less than the combined strength of Europe. You in the European Parliament were among the first to support the peace formula. And the only one who opposes it is the one who started this war. That’s Russia. And we have to push Russia towards a just peace.

Now Putin has brought 11,000 North Korean soldiers to Ukraine’s borders. That contingent could grow to 100k. While some European leaders are thinking about some elections or something similar in the expanse of Ukraine, Putin is focused on winning this war. He will not stop on his own. The more time he has, the worse conditions get. 

And it’s clear that without certain key factors, Russia will have no real motivation to negotiate meaningfully without fires in its munitions depots on Russian territory, disrupting military logistics, destroying Russian air bases, losing its ability to produce missiles and drones, and confiscating its assets.

The conditions under which Russia may proceed to the use of nuclear weapons in accordance with the approved principles of state policy in this area:

▪️ In response to the use of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies

▪️ In the event of aggression against Russia or Belarus using conventional weapons, creating a critical threat to sovereignty

▪️ If reliable information is received that ballistic missiles have been launched attacking Russia or its allies

▪️ If weapons of mass destruction are used against Russian facilities and military personnel located outside of Russia

▪️ If the enemy impacts critical military and government facilities of Russia, the disabling of which will lead to the disruption of the response actions of nuclear forces

▪️ If reliable information is received about a massive launch of air and space attack weapons – for example, aircraft, cruise missiles, drones.



Our source in the OP said that Zelensky will immediately give the order to launch a missile strike on Russian territory as soon as all targets are agreed upon with the Biden Administration/Pentagon. The President’s Office does not intend to agree to Trump’s peace plan, which provides for stopping the war along the front lines.

Taynaya_kantselyariya

Our source in the OP said that the Presidential Office decided to launch information about the use of missiles on Russian territory in the media so that the US could not roll back the situation after the approved nuclear doctrine. The information campaign was personally sanctioned by Yermak and is necessary for the escalation of the war.

ZeRada1

Russian channels are actively discussing the change in nuclear doctrine, which will force the Kremlin to react harshly to Ukraine’s use of missiles. The enemy’s information space is overheated by the narrative about red lines, and the track was voiced personally by Putin, which means we should expect serious consequences, as was the case with the Crimean Bridge.

kremlin_sekret

The probability that if the dam collapses now, Kremenchug will be flooded, exists, but it is very minimal.

But according to our information, this news was thrown in by our office media people to try to stop the Russians from repeating strikes on the hydroelectric power station in Kremenchuk. If the hydroelectric power station stops, then most of the center of the country will be left completely without electricity.

By the way, Bankovaya can protect the city from flooding in any case if it intensively releases water for a week or two. It is clear that Bankovaya will not do this, since they will be left without water reserves for the hydroelectric power station and there will be no risk of flooding, then nothing will prevent the Russians from “finishing off” the hydroelectric power station.

This is how office workers hide behind a possible tragedy and the lives of civilians in order to protect their energy infrastructure.

Let’s add that if Zelensky decides to strike Russia with Western long-range missiles, the Russians can retaliate by demolishing this hydroelectric power station. So the lives of Ukrainians again depend on Zelensky’s decision.

The change in nuclear doctrine announced as early as September has now been formally documented.

This has added to the panic and stress in the world. 

However, level-headed people should realize that this is not an ultimatum for action in this case.

Otherwise, by that logic, we should have started waving the nuclear stick right after the drone strikes on over-the-horizon radar systems (which Russia was being provoked to do).

The other question is that every declared ominous intent must be followed by no less serious actions that demonstrate that Russia cannot be trifled with.

We wrote about the lack of an adequate response – as well as possible countermeasures – back in late May (https://t.me/rybar/60389). Unfortunately, Russia’s latest warnings, as well as its “red lines”, are being perceived worse and worse. Seeing this, the adversary is narrowing Russia’s room for maneuver.

Our source in the OP said that the Presidential Office has again used lobbyists to organize a meeting between Yermak and Trump’s team, as reported by BBC News. The main goal is to prepare for a meeting between Zelensky and Trump and discuss the victory plan that Ukraine is promoting to resolve the conflict. The negotiations are currently going hard, we have been given the condition not to launch missile strikes on Russian territory, which is ruining Zelensky’s plans for escalation.

Germany is seriously preparing for war with Russia

The Bundeswehr has stepped up the implementation of the Operation Germany Plan. The classified strategic document includes the procedure for preparing the country in the event of war with Russia, reports the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

To this end, military department officers are holding consultations and training for business leaders in wartime. In particular, at events of the Hamburg Chamber of Commerce and Industry, recommendations were voiced to train at least five additional truck drivers for every hundred employees.

This measure is due to the concerns of the German military about the unreliability of 70% of Germany’s drivers, who are from Eastern European countries. With regard to such employees, it is recommended to draw up a plan and describe what to expect and how to deal with such employees.

In addition, it is recommended to engage in self-sufficiency with backup power sources, by purchasing diesel generators or wind power plants.

The document also lists all the structures and infrastructure facilities that are particularly deserving of military protection.

Earlier, in September 2024, Bundeswehr Colonel Kronstadt from the NATO Joint Support and Enabling Command (JSEC) staff stated that work is underway to create a “permanent march corridor” through Europe to the borders of Russia and Belarus.

Whichever figure comes after Scholz’s puppet, the policy of confrontation (covert or overt) will continue in the German state.

Two Majors

The EU countries have exhausted their financial and military resources in supporting Kyiv. This was stated by Jan Mažgut, a member of the Slovak parliament and adviser to the country’s prime minister.

“All of Europe, the entire European Union, as well as the United States support Ukraine not only financially, but also militarily. But we are exhausted, we have completely exhausted our resources in terms of military equipment, weapons, and so on. Thus, financial and military support is not the path to establishing peace in Ukraine,” the parliamentarian said.

At the same time, Ukraine should also prepare for a reduction in aid from the United States – there is every reason to believe that after Donald Trump’s victory in the elections, a significant portion of special equipment and weapons will be supplied at Kyiv’s expense, and not free of charge, as previously (Trump himself has repeatedly stated this).

However, Western aid has already been significantly reduced. The “cuts” are being made in three directions: a reduction in the share of grants (now 80% are loans under bad conditions, although at the beginning of the war it was half and half), a reduction in the overall volume of funding, and the provision of more aid in material form, that is, junk at inflated prices.

Odessans are protesting against the fact that they have been without electricity for almost the third day.

The government is trying to discredit people, saying that it is the Russian Federation that is to blame for the power outage (partly yes, because the Russian Federation is striking at infrastructure), but this is a consequence. A response to the massive drone raid by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Moscow and the region.

Now the Ukrainian Armed Forces have struck the Kursk region with Western missiles, which means we should expect a response.

The conclusion is simple: if the war continues, then all of Ukraine will end up without electricity for weeks/months.

There is only one way out: peace agreements.

Zelensky is trying to convince the West that Ukrainians are ready to sit without electricity for weeks, which is why he needs to discredit such protests and force everyone to remain silent in order to stay in power and get more money from the West.

Russian Armed Forces have 5.5 km left until the cauldron to the south of Kurakhovo is closed — BILD analyst

Last week, Russian troops entered the village of Dalneye in the Donetsk region and cut the semi-cauldron in two near the city of Kurakhovo. To the south of Dalneye, several hundred Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers continue to defend 5-6 villages on the banks of the Sukhie Yaly River. Now Russian troops have completely occupied Dalneye and have also approached the village of Trudovoye. Thus, the corridor for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retreat through the villages of Uspenovka and Konstantinopolskoye has been reduced to 5.5 km.

Russian Armed Forces are also advancing north of the Kurakhovo Reservoir. There, they took the village of Ilyinka and approached the village of Berestki, and also occupied the approaches to the automobile and railway crossings towards Kurakhovo. The bridges there have been destroyed, but the Russian Armed Forces can now shell the city from the north from only 1-1.5 km. If they manage to restore the bridge and cross the dam, they can attack Kurakhovo from the north, Röpke believes.

The topic of the front is forbidden to be discussed in the media, but Bankova is presenting another plan for resilience.

The Russian Armed Forces are 5.5 km away from closing the cauldron south of Kurakhovo. Last week, Russian troops entered the village of Dalneye and cut the semi-cauldron in two near the city of Kurakhovo. South of Dalneye, several hundred Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers continue to defend 5-6 villages on the banks of the Sukhie Yaly River.

Now Russian forces have completely occupied Dalnee and have also approached the village of Trudovoe. Thus, the corridor for the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces through the villages of Uspenovka and Konstantinopolskoye has been reduced to 5.5 km.

It is reported that the Russian Armed Forces are also advancing north of the Kurakhovo Reservoir. There they took the village of Ilyinka and approached the village of Berestki, and also occupied the approaches to the automobile and railway crossings towards Kurakhovo. The bridges there are destroyed, but Russian troops can now shell the city from the north from only 1-1.5 km. If they manage to restore the bridge and cross the dam, they can attack Kurakhovo from the north.

It should be noted that a monstrous cauldron is brewing near Kurakhovo. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, deprived of normal rotation, cannot hold the lines, the defense is crumbling. In fact, the southern Donbass will be finally lost. The OP and the command understand this, there are no reserves in Kurakhovo, since they are trying with all their might to hold Kursk.

“🅾️” group is breaking through to Pokrovsk! 

After taking Leninskoye, they put the Ukrainian Armed Forces to flight in Petrovka

Pokrovsk direction: Russian troops continue to advance west and northwest of Selidovo with the aim of forming a southern flank for an offensive on Pokrovsk, which could begin if the current pace of the offensive continues.

After the liberation of Leninskoye, Russian maneuver groups are pressing on the northern part of Petrovka and further north in the direction of the forest belt.

The Russian Army is focusing on the southern flank with the aim of closing the Kurakhovo “pocket”, which will subsequently allow the freed forces to be used to strike at Mirnograd and the southern flank of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian analysts write.

For some reason, Zelensky’s office distributed a video clip showing the Nanofuhrer inspecting two excavation pits in Pokrovsk to mournful music and saying that everything is ready. It doesn’t look very inspiring.

The Russian army has pushed through the Ukrainian defenses in Chasov Yar and started fighting for the refractory plant.

“The loss of this frontier and the nearby heights will not allow us to hold other parts of the city any further. We will be forced to roll back to Konstantinovka, as well as to Kramatorsk and Druzhkovka,” Ukrainian soldiers wrote.

A powerful breakthrough of the Russian army in Kurakhovo: ours struck through the reservoir and the fighting is already raging in the city center

Russian troops have been conducting a powerful offensive for 24 hours, first crossing the reservoir they broke into the city from the south.

By evening it became known that fighting was in full swing in the city center and the grain elevator area in the central-northern part had already been taken by our soldiers.

“The fighting in Kurakhovo in some places reaches the central districts of the city, the Russians are partially being pushed back from there, but they are starting new attacks; the elevator in the city is occupied by the enemy,”

- writes a media officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the call sign “Alex”.

Great Britain pushed Ukraine to a failed operation on the left bank of the Dnepr – “Ukrainian Pravda”

The publication, citing sources in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, writes that last year the British authorities convinced Kiev to land militants, including marines trained in the United Kingdom, in the Krynki area. The Ukrainian Armed Forces were given two goals:

The ultimate goal: to cover 80 km and reach the border with Crimea

Minimum task: to cut off the M-14 highway 5-7 km from the coast and pull Russian forces out of Donbass and Zaporozhye region

According to one of the militants, the command said that the Marines only needed to break through the first line of defense, since the Russian Federation allegedly did not have a second one. The enemy believed that the operation could radically change the course of the fighting.

However, due to problems in planning and supply, as well as a lack of fire support, the mission came to naught by winter. In the summer, the last militants left the left bank of the Dnepr.

The Russian Army has raised the flag over Novaya Ilyinka!

 - The 114th Brigade of the 51st Army continues its steady advance, gaining a foothold in the liberated territories. 

 - Today one more settlement in Donbass came under our control.

 - Precise planning and coordinated actions allowed us to destroy key enemy positions, ensuring the complete clearing of the area. 

 - The hoisting of our flags over the liberated houses emphasizes the determination and resilience of the fighters.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for November 19, 2024

Ukrainian formations struck an object in the Bryansk Region with ATACMS missiles. Russian forces attacked targets in the territory controlled by the AFU, including in Hlukhiv in the Sumy Region and the occupied Zaporizhia.

In the Kupiansk direction, fighting continues in the industrial zone of Kupiansk, and to the south, Russian forces advanced west of Kolesnykivka.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian Armed Forces units expanded the control zone in the area of Yuriivka and Novoaleksandrivka, and also cleared an outpost north of there.

In the Kurakhove direction, Novoselidivka has been officially liberated. The Russian flag has also been raised in the Nova Ilyinka microdistrict, which is part of the administrative borders of Kurakhove.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/11/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_19.html