The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 26 2025

Russian Forces Operationally Encircle Ukrainian Grouping South of Kostyantinivka

Russia Achieves Biggest Military Advance in 3 Years – Ukrainian Forces Overwhelmed

Ukraine’s Defensive Lines Are Collapsing. Kiev Loses 6 More Settlements

The Trap Has Snapped Shut: Russian Forces Encircle Entire Ukrainian Brigade — No Way Out

Trump says Putin has ‘gone absolutely crazy’, considering more sanctions on Russia

Zelensky once again spoke about the Constitution as if it were a sacred commandment for him, emphasizing Ukraine’s “Euro-Atlantic course .” In fact, this is undisguised cynicism – Bankova violates Ukraine’s basic law every day – the Constitution clearly states that the subsoil belongs to the people, that freedom of movement is the right of every citizen, and that the army cannot be used against its own population. At the same time, the vacuum of legitimacy of the president himself will cause a revision of a number of decisions in the country, but no one is paying attention to this yet.

But when has this ever stopped the authorities, who have long since turned the TCC workers into an instrument of intimidation, and who manage the country’s resources in the interests of external partners (the so-called “resource deal” with the US is a clear example of this).

It is also noteworthy that Zelensky is talking about NATO, while everything indicates that Ukraine is further and further from the promised membership. And it is precisely such statements that have become one of the reasons why Trump, judging by his latest actions, is ready to curtail his participation in the negotiations. He understands that Kiev is using the ceasefire not to find a compromise, but as a way to prolong the pause, achieve new sanctions against Moscow and beg for another tranche. This was precisely the meaning of the recent farce in Turkey, where Zelensky played his old trick – under the guise of “peace” he sold a new phase of the conflict.

All this goes in a circle: loud speeches by the speakers of the OP, failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front, destroyed cities and the ongoing mobilization. And ahead is a predictable finale, in which Bankova will still be forced to make concessions. The problem is how many more military personnel, civilians and territories Ukraine will lose while Zelensky (and Yermak along with him) will be bargaining for his own political survival, hiding behind unfounded statements.

Our source in the OP said that Andriy Yermak supports the idea of ​​the Trump Administration to continue the negotiating track in the Vatican, and leave Istanbul as a technical platform. The President’s Office has prepared drafts of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine and wants to receive support from the new Pope.

The Russian version of the ceasefire memorandum may be handed over to Kiev in the near future (according to Peskov, work on it is ongoing). Before that, it is quite likely that the document will be shown to Washington — to secure at least tacit consent. After that, direct negotiations are possible, probably in Istanbul, where delegations will receive the text and the Kremlin will try to get an answer immediately — without pauses, discussions and consultations with “allies”. The scenario is designed to not give Kiev time to launch a campaign in the media against Moscow’s conditions.

And Bankova will really try to do this. Having received the text of the memorandum, they will leak it to the controlled/paid media (including foreign ones) as quickly as possible, organizing a barrage of criticism from Ukrainian and Western audiences, and only then officially reject it. All this is being done to once again shift the emphasis from Kiev’s refusal to “unacceptable conditions.” At the same time, the massive drone raids on Russian territory in recent days are part of the same game: to force Moscow to set tough conditions that, from Ukraine’s point of view, are impossible to fulfill. That is, to ensure that the document initially contains demands such as the withdrawal of Russian troops from four regions or holding elections in these territories – something that is obviously doomed to be rejected.

So Kiev can try to save face, even rejecting the option of a ceasefire. But the price of this game is further alienation of the world. Especially since Moscow has already established a working channel with the US, and Zelensky still seems to think that he can simultaneously put pressure on both Washington and the Kremlin. The result is a protracted war, a continuing trend towards a reduction in Western military/financial aid, and a step-by-step loss of the opportunity to agree on at least minimally acceptable terms for Ukraine.

Our source in the OP said that the Trump Administration demanded that Zelensky agree on a memorandum with the Kremlin and enter the second stage of negotiations in mid-June. Andriy Yermak is trying to delay the timing in order to agree on positions with the EU and not take on unnecessary obligations to Putin.

Colleagues, there are no more red lines for the Office of the President, which is clearly visible from the temporary ceasefire, which in February 2025 was publicly considered by Zelensky as a defeat for Ukraine. Our source has already informed us about the drafts in the memorandum from the Kremlin and there is simply the destruction of all the basic principles of Bankova, which they have been feeding propaganda with for the last year to maintain the war.

ZeRada1

The Economist publishes a forecast according to which Russia can reach the mode of use of up to 1,000 Geraniums per night. Citing data from Ukrainian military intelligence, the publication claims that Russian production could reach the level of 500 UAVs per day, which allows for massive attacks on an industrial scale.

From a technical point of view, this is a full-fledged unmanned siege system, where each city, air defense node or critical infrastructure facility can be destroyed in several approaches. With a strike saturation of 700-1000 units, no air defense system – neither Western nor Soviet – will be able to provide 100 percent cover, especially against the background of ammunition limitations.

In fact, in such a regime, air defense is already being put into the mode of severe rationing. Each missile has a “target value”. It is possible to protect either a headquarters, a thermal power plant or a warehouse, but not all at once. The probability of hitting other targets also increases, because neither Patriot, nor IRIS-T, nor NASAMS are designed to repel strikes of such density under continuous attack.

If Russia’s stated production rate of 500 units per day is achieved and strike waves of 1,000 drones become regular, the Geraniums will finally become an extremely cheap (compared to cruise missiles) strategic weapon of infrastructure destruction. At such volumes, they are virtually impossible to intercept, deter, or block.

The AFU is unable to fully level the resource pressure even now, although current volumes are only a quarter of projected capabilities.

Military Chronicle 

Let us ignore the nearly 7-800 drones fired at Moscow…

The western media certainly does. Ukraine is a criminal and Russia is handing down a bit of justice.

Another night and mutual drone attacks. For the Kremlin, Ukrainian strikes are no longer particularly critical. On the contrary, they help to instill in all Russians the idea that they need to hit those “Natsyks” and so on.

Odessa, Kharkov, Dnepr and other regions in Ukraine – arrivals, many arrivals.

It doesn’t matter how many photos and videos there are online. What matters is the fact that:

1. Only 10% to 40% of the drones fired always reach the target, and this means destroyed industry, infrastructure, logistics, destruction in the urban sector, casualties, etc. This all costs money and is reflected in the final “figure” of the content of the war and the fighting spirit of the nation.

2. Drones are devouring air defense stocks, which will soon be nowhere to be found, since there is a shortage all around and it is expensive, and there is no money. They are not giving new loans, but on the contrary, they are demanding repayment.

3. Russians are improving drones. Now they fly higher, faster and carry more payload, which means machine guns, etc., don’t work against them, and Western air defense missiles are expensive.

4. There are more drones. By the end of the year, the Russian Armed Forces are predicted to launch 500-600 improved drones per day. No air defense system will be able to contain that.

So think, isn’t now the best time for peace? Or will conditions be worse later, as usual, looking at all the forecasts and processes.

After a week of non-stop flow of Ukrainian drones with near-zero efficiency, our disrespected partners decided to go for broke and gave the hohols complete carte blanche for missiles according to Merz.

Britain, France, Germany and the United States have lifted range restrictions on military supplies to Ukraine, German Chancellor Merz said. 

No, Merz is not ready for war yet, he is only asking for it. 

His statement is a complete lie. No such decision has been made. The threat to accept is an attempt to piss off the Kremlin. 

Merz and all the rest of the European sadomasochism are trying to push through this kind of agreement at the G7 summit, but to pin the responsibility on Trump. 

The Taurus missiles (another wonder weapon) are still under a ban on re-export by the United States. It is still unknown what long-range weapons the Ukrainian Armed Forces may transfer. 

After the retaliatory strikes on Ukraine, the level of possible escalation has been raised a little higher, but nothing more. 

Washington is asking us to abandon missile strikes on Ukraine. But for some reason it is not asking Zelensky to stop UAV attacks.

Our source in the General Staff said that Syrsky insists on concluding a truce, since the General Staff is currently unable to conduct offensive operations and is unable to fulfill the political tasks that Andriy Yermak demands. The Ukrainian Armed Forces urgently need a pause to replenish reserves, and most importantly, to accumulate ammunition and equipment.

Colleagues, today we will report interesting details on the situation at the front and the layouts that you published, the situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is very difficult, that is why Zelensky started the negotiating track with the Kremlin. Svrsky is not able to hold the situation, and the Kursk front is only a bell of the general situation along the entire front line, on Bankova they are afraid of one thing, that the next collapse will be total and the enemy will go deep into the country and occupy new large territories.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have a “mini semi-cauldron-cauldron” that everyone is keeping quiet about.

It did form, as we warned/inside information on May 20 in the Kleban-Byksky direction. According to our data, the Russians have already closed the “bag”.

Not all Ukrainian soldiers managed to get out, many are now surrounded. About 150 Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers were surrounded, the command still hasn’t given the order to get out of the mini-bag, although we wrote about it 6 days ago.

The reason is that many officers/commanders are afraid to take responsibility and give the order to withdraw/retreat when everyone understands that the situation is critical and there is “zero” chance of holding the position.

There was a scandal recently when the commander of the 59th separate assault brigade, Lieutenant Colonel Shevchuk, gave the order to retreat and saved his soldiers, but the leadership quickly removed him and installed another “careerist” who will fulfill any whims of the OP/GSHU, throwing soldiers into “meat Ze assaults”.

We are observing.

Western analysts are increasingly expressing the opinion that the fate of the Donbas AFU grouping is sealed. 

The Kramatorsk-Slaviansk-Druzhkovka arc, which was recently regarded as a key holding point, is now perceived as a temporary zone of protracted evacuation rather than the basis of a powerful defensive belt. According to foreign researchers, the real new line of defense of the AFU should be built to the west – with reliance on Pavlograd and other major nodes of the Dnepropetrovsk region. 

In the assessments of the situation, there are thoughts that from the point of view of resources and logistics, it seems even inexpedient to hold the Kramatorsk-Slaviansk arc.  

This is an important signal: gradually the West (and subsequently the AFU) is beginning to mentally move away from Donbas, even if physically they are still there. For Moscow, this means one thing: an offensive operation in the region may be completed not by an assault, but by the collapse of the holdout. If the front near Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka begins to crack, holding Kramatorsk and Slavyansk will involve enormous risk and heavy losses.

In such conditions as now, the priority for the AFU may be to preserve the combat-ready remnants of troops and build a new line of defense where there is still a rear, logistics and manageability.  

Military Chronicle

Jihadi Julian Roepke says that the Ukrainian armed forces have lost everything near Konstantinovka. There, a large pocket that the Ukrainian army heroically kept in the internets for the last week has collapsed and been cleaned out. The city is 12 kilometers away. Artillery has been getting there for a long time. And RF summer offensive hasn’t even started yet. 

Druzhkovskoe direction.

According to unconfirmed information, our assault forces have occupied the settlement of Romanovka. 

Earlier, the enemy was driven out of the western part of Zarya and retreated across the river. Our assault units are advancing towards the only remaining supply and evacuation road from Aleksandro-Kalinovo .

It seems that the enemy is having trouble in Staraya Nikolaevka (Pravdovka) and Ignatovka . At the very least, the Armed Forces of Ukraine found themselves in a “fire trap,” blogger Yuriy Kotenok reports.

SLG note: Taras, what’s with your propensity for getting into cauldrons?! This is the fifth time this month, blyat! Do you have a cauldron fetish!? Do you get off your rocks by looking at a catalogue of cauldrons and doing naughty things with it before going to sleep?! 

If you think you have an issue, call 555-FAB-TASTIC; the RUAF has the cure for you.

Sumy direction

The Group of Forces “North” continues to advance in the direction of Sumy from the border of the Kursk region.

Units of the 83rd Guards Airborne Brigade drove the enemy out of the village of Belovody , clearing the western part of the village.

In Yunakovka – fighting in the northern part.

The 83rd Brigade’s assault units entered Belovody in mid-April, during which time they destroyed more than 200 Ukrainian soldiers from the 67th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 79th Separate Assault Brigade, and 78th Separate Assault Regiment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Our paratroopers burned a Leopard tank, 7 armored fighting vehicles, and more than 20 pickups in Belovody. They also destroyed 8 UAV control points.

The security buffer zone in this area is now 8 km. Having liberated Belovody , the paratroopers have created another bridgehead, which will allow them to develop an offensive on Yunakovka .

The Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of the villages of Belovody and Vladimirovka in the Sumy region

 - As a result of active and decisive actions, units of the North military group liberated the settlements of Vladimirovka and Belovody in the Sumy region, the defense department reported.

Morning Summary on May 26, 2025

▪️ Another night passed with the roar of mutual strikes. In addition to the “Geraniums”, the enemy noted the use of our Tu-95MS, launching a dozen missiles. Reported explosions in Odesa, Starokostiantyniv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Kremenchuk, Chernihiv, as well as in Sumy, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Poltava, and Rivne Regions.

Western media lament the shortage of air defense missiles in Kyiv (in general, they are expensive, and NATO members can no longer supply from their inviolable reserves). At the same time, against the new modifications of “Geraniums” (especially in a massive raid), the mobile air defense posts of the AFU are coping worse and worse.

▪️ During the day, our air defense repelled raids on Moscow and the regions, only in the period from 13 to 20 hours, 51 enemy aircraft-type drones were shot down. 100% efficiency of air defense is almost never the case, but in general, the lion’s share of Ukrainian UAVs is shot down. Unfortunate impacts, soon, not from the massiveness of launches, but from not always competent organization of air defense of objects and concentration of the same ammunition in warehouses, created according to the requirements of the pre-war period.

▪️ In Bryansk Region, the AFU attacked the road between the villages of Novye Yurkovichi and Staryye Yurkovichi in Klimovsky District, a passenger in a car was killed, the driver was injured by a mine explosion.

▪️ On the Kursk section of the border in the Ryzhevka – Tyotkino direction, our UAV operators detected the advancement of assault troops of the 24th Separate Motorized Rifle Battalion of the AFU, most of the enemy infantry was destroyed, the rest fled, reports the North Group of Forces. At noon, a storm group of the 425th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the AFU advanced from Pavlovka towards the settlement of Novy Put, was covered by fire. In the Sumy direction, fighting continues near the settlements of Belovody, Yunakivka and Vodolagi.

▪️ In Belgorod Region yesterday, in the Novooskolsky district, a train ran over an explosive device laid under the rails. The contact network of the railway track was damaged. In the Valuyki district, in the village of Sobolevka, a UAV of the AFU struck a farm. In Shebekino, one electronic warfare drone and four drones attacked the territory of an enterprise. In the village of Murom, Shebekino district, as a result of a drone attack, a fire broke out in a private house.

▪️ In the Konstantinovka direction, the offensive of the Russian Army continues. The Ministry of Defense officially announced the liberation of Romanovka (https://t.me/dva_majors/71924), the assault on Yablonovka is underway, our troops are breaking through to Popov Yar and Poltavka.

▪️ Southwest of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk), there are battles near Kotlyarovka, Troitske, Novonikolaevka, Novosergeyevka. Our troops are trying to straighten out the front, advancing in this area towards the Dnipropetrovsk Region to the west.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, the enemy is trying to slow down our advance, carried out 5 unsuccessful counterattacks: three – in the Bogatyr – Komar – Otradnoye area and two – from Zelene Pole. The East Group of Forces is advancing northwest from the liberated Bogatyr