The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on July 30 2025

Russian Forces Storm Main Defenses of Ukraine In Zaporizhzhia Region

Russian Forces Storm Behind 50,000 AFU Troops – Collapse Incoming?

Russian Army Flank Ukraine Soldiers in Intense Frontline Combat Battle

The fall of Pokrovsk, “Death Sentence” for Ukr. RUS missile strikes training unit. Ukr wants Patriot

Colleagues, right now the Office of the President is at a standstill and they are just generating narratives to shift the focus away from the public mood. Zelensky’s entire rating is an illusion, which is why the protests had such an impact on the authorities.

The situation at Bankova is currently stuck because Yermak’s policy of creating an authoritarian vertical has collapsed like a house of cards, and now everyone understands that the President is weak and incapable of resolving political crises within the country.

Zelensky was reset and it was done beautifully, but there is still hope at Bankova to turn the situation around and continue building an authoritarian vertical. The President’s inner circle is not just attacked by Western clients, it has been destroyed and shown to everyone that Zelensky/Yermak are just avatars and everyone will have to answer.

First — the handing of suspicion to the Vice Prime Minister, Minister of National Unity Oleksiy Chernyshov, whose return from a business trip was watched by the whole country.

Then — searches at the house of the Deputy Head of the President’s Office Rostyslav Shurma in Germany. Not in Ukraine, not in a conditional office or on a work computer, but in a private house abroad.

And finally, information appeared that another figure is preparing to receive suspicion. This is about Timur Mindich, a close friend of Zelensky.

These three episodes together became the culmination of accumulated tension for the president.

“Zelensky was furious,” recalls one member of his inner circle.

He literally shouted:

“Why do I need you all here if you can’t solve one task — the Chernyshov case?”

In the West, Zelensky continues to be harshly criticized and the policy of the President’s Office is called a bunker mentality!

Martial law is often used as a justification for temporarily restricting freedoms, but the line between “temporary” and “systematic” can be erased unnoticed. When the political vertical begins to perceive institutions of independent accountability as a threat, a reverse transformation begins: from reform to maintaining power. This is no longer just inertia; it is what the Financial Times calls a “bunker mentality.”

The FT editorial harshly states: the attack on NABU was not a reaction to the costs of war, but a deliberate attempt to neutralize the risks of exposure within the president’s circle. Even supporters of Kyiv in Western structures admit: Ukraine has crossed the line of acceptable centralization. Support for Ukraine in the EU and the US may weaken not due to fatigue, but because of unmet expectations — a state with weakened institutions and suppressed dissent cannot be called an EU candidate without reservations.

The essence of this story is not about Zelensky, but about the logic of the system: an environment is forming around power that is incapable of criticism and adaptation, but ready for isolation and purges. The term “bunker mentality” in this context is not a metaphor, but a diagnosis. When the solution to any problem is seen as blocking an alternative center of influence, it is not about governance but about the fear of losing monopoly.

The shift from a balance of institutions to a closed vertical in Ukraine is not an accident, but the logic of elite survival in conditions of uncertainty. But it is precisely this logic that can destroy not only anti-corruption bodies but also the very architecture of trust between Kyiv and the West.

Yermak may negotiate with Russia and abandon joining the EU in order to stay in power together with Zelensky

 - This was stated by D. Kalenyuk, head of the “Center for Countering Corruption,” which operates on Western grants.

 - “The greatest threat to Yermak is Zelensky losing his position as president. Therefore, for Andriy Borysovych, it is vital in the event of elections, which are inevitable after a possible war freeze: a) to convince the president to run for a second term, b) to organize these elections so that Zelensky definitely wins,” writes Kalenyuk.

 - “The easiest way to do this is to turn Ukraine from a democracy into an autocracy.”

 - “Therefore, as long as Yermak maintains absolute influence over Zelensky, attempts will continue from him to sacrifice the entire country just to stay in power. If the price is the failure of European integration and aid from the West – so be it. I would not be surprised if Yermak agrees to an unfavorable compromise with the Russians for us to achieve this. Note that last week the negotiation track with the Russians in Istanbul was completely under the control of Yermak and his loyal henchman Umerov. What they are discussing with the Russians under Erdogan’s close watch is a big question,” writes Kalenyuk.

The provided image shows that Russian forces have advanced along a wide section of the front east of Seversk.

The green zone indicates the loss of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ ability to hold the defense where the front line was previously held for months.

This means that the Russian army has begun to break through the front in this area in large sections, forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retreat without the possibility of stabilizing the line.

If the pace continues, Syrsky will have to either urgently redeploy reserves or fall back to deeper lines beyond Seversk to prevent Russian troops from reaching key supply roads in this direction.

Several Ukrainian sources have been reporting for the second day that Russian drone operators and aviation are actively forming the northeastern “jaws” of the future encirclement near Pokrovsk, cutting through the Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves in the Dobropillia and Sviatogorovka area, preventing them from regrouping and moving towards Vodyanske, in order to then attempt a counterattack near Rodynske. 

Other groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (including units of the 38th Marine Brigade) are pressed by strikes against the mines between Novoekonomichne and Myrnohrad and deprived of maneuvering capability. The fire pocket formed by Russian troops near Pokrovsk cannot be shifted or even weakened by the Ukrainian army: neither local counterattacks nor reserve redeployments yield results.

Russian artillery and strike UAVs methodically suppress all resistance points, maintaining key supply routes under constant fire control, which accelerates the destruction of the entire Ukrainian defensive configuration in this direction.

Battle for Pokrovsk: Frontline Updates

RUAF Bogatyrs push from the North and threaten the E-50 supply route.

War correspondent Timofey Ermakov writes that RUAF soldiers are already conducting assault operations inside the village of Belitskoe, advancing from liberated Nikanorovka.

Soon the enemy may finally forget the northern logistics on the Rodinskoe-Krasnoarmeisk-Dimitrov line entirely.

Don’t worry though, Steiner’s Zaluzhny’s counterattack will bring the situation back in order.

On strikes on training grounds

Yesterday, the Russian Armed Forces struck the training ground of the 169th Training Center of the AFU near Honcharivske in Chernihiv Region. The enemy’s resources reported the death of three and the wounding of 18 members of Ukrainian formations, although in reality the losses are clearly higher.

This is by no means the first such attack – since the beginning of the year, at least 12 such incidents confirmed by objective control footage are known. Eight of them occurred over the past 2 months, and since the end of May, such strikes have been happening almost every week.

Most of the targets were hit by “Iskander”, another part – by Geran-2 kamikaze drones. It is noteworthy that in June-July the number of strikes on training centers also increased, (https://t.me/rybar/72070) which are precisely what provide the influx of manpower to these training grounds.

ðŸ–It is obvious that there is a systematic approach to destroying the enemy’s mobilization infrastructure. In this case, the targets are not only the “busified”, but also instructors, the loss of which is painful for the AFU.

🚩In addition to disrupting the process of training the enemy’s manpower, the attacks have a demoralizing effect, especially for the newly arrived reinforcements. They develop a persistent feeling that there is no rear, and even on the training ground they will not be safe.

❗️In fact, we can speak of a targeted campaign to disrupt the AFU’s ability to replenish their losses. If the current intensity of strikes is maintained, an even greater shortage of trained company and platoon units will become a systemic problem for the AFU in the foreseeable future.

Powerful night strike on enemy targets: targets hit in Pavlograd, Kharkov, Ochakov, Honcharivske

 - Last night, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out a series of combined attacks on targets in enemy territory.

 - Pavlograd (Dnipropetrovsk region): Reports are coming in about Russian “Geran” strikes near the railway branch. At least four hits are known, which caused fires. The fire strike was inflicted on military echelons that arrived in Pavlograd for unloading – to send cargo to the Pokrovske direction.

 - Kharkov: Several strikes were recorded at one of the industrial enterprises. A fire is reported at this facility as well.

 - Ochakov (Nikolaev region): A missile strike was carried out on a target in Ochakov. According to the latest data, three missile hits occurred near the Ochakov port.

 - Goncharovskoe (Chernigov region): Russian UAVs attacked a training ground where Ukrainian servicemen are undergoing training.

Morning Summary for July 30, 2025

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces carried out strikes on enemy targets in the Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv Regions during the night.

▪️ In the Tula Region, three Ukrainian UAVs were neutralized at night, and two more in the Kursk Region.

▪️ In the Kursk Region, the enemy continues to terrorize civilians with constant strikes. A FPV drone attacked the village of Karyzh in the Hlushkovo District, killing a 19-year-old employee of the Alabuga communications company. Near the village of Shchekino in the Rylsk District, a Ukrainian drone attacked a tractor during field work, injuring a 26-year-old man nearby. Yesterday morning, a Ukrainian FPV drone attacked a private house in the settlement of Kultprosvet in the Khomutovo District, injuring two civilians.

▪️ In the Sumy direction, the North Grouping of Forces reports battles already on the southern outskirts of Yunakivka: our paratroopers continue the assault. Over the past day, the enemy made three unsuccessful counterattacks in the vicinity of Andriyivka, the village of Sadky, and in Yunakivka. The front line section near Kondratovka remains the main direction of the enemy’s active actions. The AFU are digging in the village and bringing in reinforcements.

▪️ In the Kharkiv direction, protracted battles are ongoing in the Volchansk and Melove areas, the enemy has brought in reinforcements. The line of contact remains unchanged.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, a man was injured as a result of a drone strike on a car in the village of Rzhevka. In Voznesenivka, a civilian car was attacked by an AFU FPV drone, injuring two people. In the village of Nezhegol, a Ukrainian drone struck a cargo truck, injuring three. In the village of Borki in the Valuyki district, a Ukrainian drone attacked an official vehicle, injuring the head of the territorial administration Ryabikina Tatyana and the driver. The city of Shebekino came under AFU fire, injuring three. Belyanка, Urazovo, Borki, Dvuluchnoye, Leonovka, Grafovka, and Zozuli were also hit.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeisk) direction, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that units of the Center Grouping of Forces captured the settlement of Novoukrainka in the DPR, with the Russian Armed Forces advancing towards the city.

▪️ At the junction of the South Donetsk direction and the Zaporizhia Region, the East Grouping of Forces liberated the settlement of Temyrivka.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, our paratroopers are storming the floodplains, with fierce battles ongoing for Stepnohirsk and its surroundings. The enemy has brought in numerous reinforcements, hindering the advance of the Russian Armed Forces towards the city of Zaporizhia.

▪️ In the Kherson direction, there are mutual shelling between the sides. The enemy shelled Oleshky, Kakhovka, Nova Kakhovka, Abrykosivka, Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, Dnipryany, Mala Lepetykha and Stara Mayachka. There are power outages in the region, and forests are burning.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-july_30.html