The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on August 15 2025

Trump-Putin summit: Leaders to discuss peace in Ukraine

Alaska Summit bottom line

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“Trump and Putin plan a meeting in Alaska to discuss the war in Ukraine”: Reuters reports that Putin and Trump have already found “a certain consensus on Ukraine.”

“Trump stated on the eve of the meeting that he considers it possible to make a deal on Ukraine, although his predictions about the success of the negotiations have varied. Putin, for his part, praised the US’s “sincere efforts” to end the war.

A source close to the Kremlin told Reuters that it seems the parties managed to find some common ground in advance.

“Apparently, some conditions will be agreed upon because Trump cannot be refused, and we, given the pressure of sanctions, cannot afford that,” the interlocutor said on condition of anonymity.”

Trump spoke out again. 

We won’t recount all his statements. Let’s say the main idea. 

- Trump is just hyping up the upcoming negotiations, which will be good, and he knows it. 

The main message is that he wants to stop 6 wars in 6 months and go down in history, later receiving the Nobel Peace Prize. 

The rest is just “filler.”

“High stakes!” – Trump wrote on his social network.

Trump continues to hype and warm up the case of negotiations, which he knows will be positive.

We wait. Everyone waits. They wait at Bankova. Ukrainians just hope there will be peace.

US public statements about a “hard line” and “principled stance” on the Ukrainian case are nothing more than part of a diplomatic game, and the very fact of the face-to-face meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin and the composition of the delegations — despite all possibilities for telephone negotiations — points to something more. Contact at this level is not initiated without prior preparation and some basic agreements. And Whitkoff’s visit to the Kremlin probably became their starting point.

On the agenda, according to leaks, are several scenarios. The most discussed is the transfer of full control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire and partial return of territories in other parts of the front. This version is unofficial, but it circulates repeatedly in analytical circles and looks logical in the context of Trump’s rhetoric about “territorial compromises.” The problem is different — how to make Kyiv accept such a format? Zelensky publicly continues to insist: no discussion of territories until the ceasefire. But in expert circles, there are assumptions that the Ukrainian side may withdraw troops under the cover of “operational necessity,” saving face.

An alternative scenario is an exchange not of territory but of concessions: the Kremlin agrees to a truce, the US — to lift some sanctions or recognize Crimea. Such a deal is possible, but there is not even a hint of its discussion in the public field yet. The third version — the most pragmatic — is that Moscow and Washington simply reduce escalation to avoid a trade war and nuclear risks, without directly touching the Ukrainian issue.

However, the key question is what Trump will do next? He may start pressuring Kyiv and Europe, demanding concessions from Moscow. He may try to push through a compromise as a “peace under US leadership.” Or simply distance himself from the conflict, leaving Ukraine to face the problem alone. However, none of these options can be called “victorious” for Kyiv.

At Bankova Street, they are closely monitoring all of Trump’s statements ahead of the summit in Alaska. The United States opposes guarantees for Ukraine from NATO, while all decisions must be made by Zelensky himself.

Donald Trump made a number of statements that clearly outline his position on the Ukrainian issue. He noted that he sees Russia’s interest in the economic potential of the United States and is ready to discuss business matters with Putin.

Main points of the US president:

• Trump stated that he plans to discuss territorial issues with Putin but believes the decision should be made by Kyiv.

• He claims that Russia will face “severe economic consequences” if the Alaska summit does not bring progress.

• The US president hopes that “something will come out” of the summit, as he wants to focus on his country’s problems but participates in resolving the Ukrainian conflict “to save lives.”

• Trump stated that he does not allow the possibility of providing Kyiv with security guarantees in the NATO format. That will not happen, he said.

• At the same time, Trump noted that security guarantees are possible with the participation of Europe and other countries.

Our source reports that Zelensky is copying the actions of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who refuses to end the war in Gaza and stands his ground, but the difference between them is significant for Trump.

Netanyahu is Trump’s man, and Israel is more important than Ukraine. Zelensky, on the other hand, is a “traitor” and a man of Biden/democrats/globalists. 

Therefore, Trump needs to dump Zelensky.

That’s why any handouts from Ze are not accepted by Americans, and his opinion only irritates. Putin is much closer and more understandable to Trump than the “traitor” Zelensky. That’s why the Kremlin and the White House have come to an agreement, while Yermak has failed all communication with Washington.

The article in The Economist highlights a development that could be a turning point: the fear among European leaders that Trump will make a “dirty deal” with Moscow and present it as a diplomatic victory. The scenario involves territorial concessions by Ukraine becoming part of a package deal, even though such a format is considered unacceptable in Kyiv and European capitals. The very fact that the idea of exchanges is being discussed amid a significant deterioration in the position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shifts the negotiation framework in favor of Russia.

Europeans are trying to get back on the negotiation track regarding the Ukrainian crisis.

The leak about Western leaders considering the possibility of holding a trilateral summit involving Russia, the USA, and Ukraine in a European city, as reported by Sky News, is just a usual wishful thinking.

Putin will not go to Europe. The maximum is Turkey. Only a Kremlin delegation might fly to Europe.

The globalist press tries to pass wishful thinking as reality, in the face of an international defeat, when they and Ukraine were left out of the historic meeting in Alaska.

Our source in the Presidential Office revealed that the Office of the President has given the order to continue strikes on Russian oil refineries; we need to provoke the Kremlin into retaliatory actions and missile strikes on Kyiv. The first phase of the operation yielded results, with three Russian oil refineries sustaining significant damage.

John Mearsheimer: ‘I am sure the Russians understand that on Friday they will not get a substantive agreement. You will not get a substantive agreement next Friday, nor the one after that. This issue will be decided on the battlefield.

The best that could happen is that Trump would agree to the Russian demands and tell the Europeans and Ukrainians: ‘You can either accept the Russian demands or not. But if you don’t accept them, I am leaving, and you will have to negotiate and deal with the Russians yourselves.’

However, he will not do this mainly because Trump is surrounded by advisers who will not allow him to. Kit Kellogg, Marco Rubio, and others will be whispering in his ear. Among them is Lindsey Graham. He listens to all these people, and as long as he continues to listen to them, when he calls or goes on Zoom and talks to people like Zelensky and the German chancellor, he will end up saying the same thing.’

On the front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to lose territory en masse.

Russian troops have completely captured the “pocket” in the area of Bogatyr and Alekseevka in the Donetsk region, – Deep State. Although the Russians have already announced the capture of the settlement of Iskra, thereby fulfilling 70% of our scenario that they will cut off the logistics of Novopavlovka, which they continue to approach from two sides.

This is currently one of the weakest sections where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are rapidly retreating, losing positions. Nothing positive awaits the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area, as the Russian Armed Forces have caused a catastrophe for Ukrainian units in the Pokrovsk direction, where they sent all reserves to stop the front collapse.

Based on the current front configuration, it can be assumed that the real goal of the strike north of Pokrovsk, as well as in the area of Krasny Liman and Rodynske, was not so much the advance itself, but rather to create pressure on the flank with the task of tying down Ukrainian forces, forcing them to redeploy reserves and thereby weakening the stability of the defense in other sectors.

This is about an attempt to draw the enemy onto a narrow front, impose a reactive defense on them, and force them to cover a section where the Russian side does not aim to deeply penetrate the defense line, but rather to lure them to a specific point.

In this logic, the blue arc on the map is the zone where the main advance is planned. There, along the line passing through Gryshyno (reaching which will encircle Pokrovsk in a pocket), the defense is weakened due to the redistribution of reserves.

The “northern strike” in this scenario is a classic diversionary and tying operation, but with real battles and constant pressure sufficient for the Armed Forces of Ukraine not to ignore it and to start reacting.

Fierce battles near Pokrovsk: the “🅾️” group of troops is massively grinding down equipment and personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

▪️The situation remains tense in the Pokrovsk direction, where the units of the “Center” group of forces continue their successful offensive. On August 15, our fighters once again demonstrated high efficiency in destroying enemy fortifications.

▪️The published footage shows the destruction of armored vehicles, UAV positions, as well as the elimination of Ukrainian infantry and the disabling of enemy equipment.

Poles write that Ukrainian units redeployed to the site of the Russian troops’ breakthrough north of Pokrovsk are still unable to operate “at full capacity” and are forced to act fragmentarily.

The reason is the continuous work of Russian operational-tactical aviation, which arrives precisely at the moment when Ukrainian units appear.

According to these reports, the Ukrainian Armed Forces units come under fire even on the approaches, at the moment of transitioning to the attack lines (just as it was, for example, during the 2023 counteroffensive), which makes it impossible to organize a counterattack on the move, as was reported from the Ukrainian side.

Essentially, this is about local areas of resistance, not a unified front. The counterattacking structure has not yet formed — reactive defense is carried out by small groups.

That is, the “northern strike” beyond Pokrovsk is still in the development stage.

While attention was focused on the advance of Russian troops north of Pokrovsk, the front near Konstantinovka suddenly became active. According to current data, Russian units have advanced to a section of the highway that provides the main supply route for the Ukrainian garrison in the city. 

   The distance to the highway is less than 10 km, which, under favorable circumstances and a well-organized offensive, could be covered within 1–2 days. This logistical artery is one of the last stable (although long unsafe) routes connecting the Ukrainian Armed Forces group in Konstantinovka with the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration. Losing this road would effectively isolate the Ukrainian garrison. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will do everything to delay this event, but the Russian General Staff, it seems, has not yet played all its cards here.

Military Chronicle

The enemy confirms a breakthrough in the DPR: The Russian army has captured the “pocket” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and reached the border of the Dnepropetrovsk region

 - Russian troops have completely captured the “pocket” in the area of the settlements Bogatyr and Alekseevka in the Donetsk region. This is evidenced by the latest Deep State map.

 - The Armed Forces of Ukraine held this section for about two months but were forced to retreat. Thus, our forces have reached the border of the Donetsk and Dnepropetrovsk regions along almost its entire length south of Pokrovsk.

 - The Russian army has also advanced in two areas near the border of the Dnepropetrovsk region: near Zeleniy Kut in the Donetsk region and at the junction with the Zaporozhye region.

The Russian Army liberated Alexandrogorod on the border with the Dnepropetrovsk region

 - The “Vostok” troop group, as a result of decisive and skillful offensive actions, liberated the settlement of Alexandrogorod in the south of the DPR.

 - The operation was carried out by fighters of the 36th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army.

Our experts and journalists cannot come to a simple logical conclusion as to why the Armed Forces of Ukraine ceased to be a factor in Ukraine’s international successes, while the Private Military Companies have strengthened dozens of times since the end of 2024. The answer lies in Zelensky’s senseless Kursk adventure, where the country lost its best reserves and equipment, and the military intensified as they were thrown away. 

Later, the story of the Bakhmut meat grinder and our Commander-in-Chief’s Kursk adventure will become clear to everyone, but for now, only Telegram channels write that we were used by partners for their own purposes, to sell us more expensively in geopolitical trades between superpowers.

Morning Summary on August 15, 2025

▪️ Today, the meeting between the Supreme Leader and Trump in Alaska will take place around 10:30 PM Moscow time. The discussion of broader issues than just the war in Ukraine is expected. The Kyiv regime has intensified air raids on our front-line regions.

▪️ An enemy UAV struck Rostov, injuring 13 people. Ukrainian drones were shot down in several districts. In Kursk, a Ukrainian UAV hit a high-rise, killing one. Footage of fires after strikes on Yenakievo (DPR) and the Syzran refinery (Samara Region) is circulating.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces are striking “Geraniums” at the Sumy, Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions, likely to accumulate long-range UAVs for potential negotiations.

▪️ Our front-line regions faced numerous strikes by tactical UAVs, indicating a centralized command in the AFU to terrorize civilians. The border has been reinforced.

▪️ In the Bryansk Region, the AFU attacked FPV Sopichi, injuring two civilians. In the Kursk Region, a drone attack injured a family couple and a 75-year-old man.

▪️ In the Sumy direction, counterattacks by the AFU were repelled. Fierce battles continue in the Kharkiv and Konstantinovka directions.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, the number of drone strikes has exceeded all previous indicators, with 10 civilians injured and 1 killed.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Grouping of Forces has liberated another settlement, Iskra, on the border with the Dnipropetrovsk Region.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/08/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_15.html