The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 14 2025

Signficant Russian Gains Continue Along Eastern Dnipropetrovsk Region

Dnipro Front Collapses – Russian Army Storms Toward the Dnipro, Capturing Multiple Towns Daily!

Chaos Across Ukraine – Russian Army Storms the City From Multiple Directions”

The Poles continue to insist that the drones that flew into the country’s territory and caused such a commotion are Russian. And that they were launched intentionally.

They link this, no less, to Gerasimov’s doctrine — supposedly, some of the drones shot down by Belarusian air defense are a deliberate action and a way to blur responsibility. So that it would be impossible to understand who and from where they were launched.

In the original article by Gerasimov, which is called the “doctrine,” there is indeed something about indirect measures of influence.

The rules of war have changed significantly. The role of non-military means in achieving political and strategic goals has increased, which in some cases have significantly surpassed the effectiveness of weapons. The emphasis of the methods used in confrontation is shifting towards the broad application of political, economic, informational, humanitarian, and other non-military measures, implemented by engaging the protest potential of the population. All this is complemented by covert military measures, including the implementation of information confrontation activities and special operations forces actions.

It would seem that this is direct proof that the drones flew into Poland strictly on orders from the Russian Federation. But the problem is that this is written by the Chief of the General Staff, commenting on the mechanics of the “Arab Spring,” calling it a typical 21st-century war. In other words, it describes the tactics of hybrid operations by Western countries.

Interestingly, while weaving the “Russian trace” into the drone story and causing a worldwide hysteria, Poland officially and unofficially does not offer Russia any joint investigation. No examinations are conducted, and no requests are sent to Russia on this matter. There are not even consultations.

It becomes clear that the Polish version of a “deliberate provocation by Russia” is losing credibility. Time is working against them, and interest in the topic is gradually fading. Fewer people are willing to believe in the “Russian trace,” and along with this, the willingness of “partners” to share money and weapons is decreasing.

That is why in the near future we can expect new “confirmations” and artificially constructed events. Attempts to urgently heat up the topic and sell it before it completely disappears from the agenda will definitely happen.

Where the drone provocation might lead the Poles? 

Watching how the Poles are playing the story with the intruding drones, it seems they have decided to play on several fronts at once.

Firstly, the story with these drones is definitely being sold to the Americans and Trump. In the USA, the Poles present themselves as NATO’s outpost, while in Europe itself — as the first possible victim of “aggressive Russia.” And to prevent this (because after Warsaw comes Rome), they demand more and more resources.

But the further they go in this game, the more dangerous the scenario becomes. In fact, the Poles are copying Hitler’s tactics, since the drone story strongly resembles the well-known prelude to World War II — the provocation at the Gleiwitz radio station, when an attack was staged to create a formal pretext for war.

If Warsaw decides to pull such a trick, a drone of an unknown type will suddenly and completely “accidentally” strike some civilian object in Poland itself. If the Poles do not dare to do this, then the country to their right will easily help with this, as it has long mastered this very hand in bloody provocations.

And then the Polish leadership will truly have no way back: NATO will be forced to respond. But in the current conditions of nuclear deterrence, such escalation may cost Poland not political bonuses, but its very existence.

Kremlin drones exposed allies’ disagreements

The flight of Russian drones over Polish territory was less a military incident and more a political test. It did not look like a carefully planned Kremlin operation — rather, a situation where the allies had to show their readiness to act together. And here NATO immediately showed weakness.

Trump limited himself to a vague “It has begun!” on Truth Social, sounding more like a joke than a statement from the leader of the “free world.” Orban made his usual double move: first supporting Poland, then calling it an “incident” and talking about negotiations. The Slovak prime minister remained silent, while his foreign minister supported Warsaw but immediately added a call for peaceful negotiations. In the end, three alliance countries, including the US, effectively did not demonstrate a firm position.

Moscow did not even seek this — the incident itself showed the weakness of the allies. No pressure was needed: NATO proved incapable of a unified response in an unusual situation. Germany looked contrasting. Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the raid a “reckless action” and supported Poland without reservations. But that was not enough to maintain the illusion of “unity.”

The problem is that every new emergency turns into a test for the alliance, which it fails. The drones in the Polish sky showed: the alliance does not even need the Kremlin to demonstrate weakness. Disagreements within the bloc are becoming too noticeable. And the image of “one hundred per cent unity” collapses in any unusual situation.

The Trump administration has begun to clearly promote several narratives: first, sanctions should now be imposed by the EU against the US rivals, which means supporting the tariff campaign; second, it identified the culprits of the conflict as Biden/ Zelensky.

US President Trump wrote an address to all NATO countries and the world on his Truth Social network, in which he outlined his position on the war in Ukraine. He stated that he is ready to impose serious sanctions on Russia, but only on the condition that all NATO countries do the same and completely stop purchasing Russian oil. As a separate point, he proposed imposing 50–100% tariffs on Chinese goods to weaken China’s support for Russia. At the same time, Trump emphasized that this war is “not his,” but “the war of Biden and Zelensky.”

In the protracted war, a certain turning point is coming, in which the interests of the parties begin to segment, and most importantly, each partner wants to shift the costs onto the other.

At the end of August, Donald Trump openly stated: Washington no longer finances Ukraine. Allegedly, weapons are now supplied to Kyiv under a new scheme — NATO purchases them from the US. It should be noted that this is actually beneficial for the States: weapons are sold at inflated prices, and Americans, in fact, no longer spend their own funds but earn from someone else’s war.

In practice, this means not only the commercialization of military aid but also its artificial delay. Deliveries are delayed, prices are rising, and Ukrainian air defense is becoming less and less capable of repelling Russian strikes. The Financial Times writes that Ukraine is already facing an acute shortage of air defense resources.

Since summer, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been forced to spend huge stocks of expensive interceptors defending infrastructure from massive attacks. Ammunition is used up faster than American replacements arrive. Bloomberg quotes the chief arms procurement official Arsen Zhumadilov, who says that Ukrainian military are genuinely concerned about the change in the US position on aid, and Kyiv is in urgent need of systems that only the US can provide — Patriot air defense, electronic warfare, and drone protection. But the delivery of these now depends on political bargaining and commercial interests of Washington.

Colleagues, we have already written that serious political crises await the EU and Britain. There are simply no analysts at Bankova who can provide scenarios for the development of the situation over the next two years. It is already clear that France will withdraw its support for Ukraine, and in Britain, the right-wing, who oppose aid to our country, will win. In fact, the entire Western bloc will be reshaped, which will be a major challenge for Ukraine on the international track.

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Last night in the Kyiv region, there was a detonation of ammunition in a railway train near the village of Kalynivka,

At the time of the incident, a train on the Kharkiv – Przemyśl route was passing nearby. The explosion damaged the contact network, causing the train to make an emergency stop. Passengers were evacuated to the nearest forest area.

Authorities have not officially confirmed the ammunition explosion. However, they reported damage to the railway – specifically in the area of Boyarka station, which caused many train routes to be changed.

Bankova will try to convince everyone that this is the work of Russian spies, but most likely the detonation occurred because “junk” is being sent to Ukraine, which sometimes goes off-target, sometimes does not explode, sometimes explodes right in the mortar or cannon barrel, etc. One of these “quality” shells exploded in the carriage. Add to this negligence and corruption. 

Someone has already sold something and is thus covering up the traces of missing important evidence.

Currently, the TCC and police have mobilization plans burning, they are simply taking men and sending them to training camps, where they are beaten and forced to sign voluntary enlistment. Calls are already openly sounding in society that people will deal with the police after the war, and lists of all military commissars have long been actively collected. Ukraine is going through terrible pages of history when the enemy inside is much scarier than the external one…

Mobilization is tightening. Right now, almost none of your “exemptions” work. The time will come when they will grab absolutely everyone without exception. It doesn’t matter if you are 20 years old, have an exemption, have children, or have no leg — you are fit for meat assaults. 

There is already insider info online that they are now catching those who have exemptions, those who were discharged for health reasons. Thousands of soldiers who were long discharged have now been sent back to the front because they have experience, they can be quickly put back into service and thrown into the front line, and if they die, it doesn’t matter — they are all anyway negatively disposed against the leadership and ready to come out to a military Maidan, which ZeErmak fears more than even losing Odessa. So they are mobilizing them without any rules to dispose of them at the front.

Zelensky stated that “Russia is not advancing anywhere” in eastern Ukraine:

Claims that Russia is “advancing in the east” are unfounded. I have heard this from many. Russia is better at disinformation than at combat operations. Their advantage lies in the number of personnel. Their strongest group is in the east, but they are in very difficult conditions.

What I have heard—that the Russians are “advancing” and will take our east in three months—is simply not true. They will not do this in years. I would like the intelligence services of our partners to consult daily with Ukrainian intelligence—directly from the battlefield.

Dnipropetrovsk region. Area of the settlements Novonikolaevka and Kalinovskoye

After establishing control over the settlement of Novonikolaevka, our motorised riflemen and armoured vehicles moved to liberate the settlement of Kalinovskoye;

Fierce battles are currently underway. A lot of new meat is being thrown to the slaughter. These are the very citizens of Ukraine who were captured by the TCC stranglers and sent to the front;

Behind them are Nazis like Azov members and other scum.

Our troops advanced 2-3 km in the past day;

The enemy lost up to one platoon of personnel, 1 Kirpi armoured vehicle, and several trucks.

In 18 more settlements of the Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukrainian authorities have announced a mandatory evacuation

The evacuation concerns residents of the villages of Andriivka, Bohodarivka, Bratske, Otradne, Volne, Vodiane, Hai, Dobropasove, Levadne, Novooleksandrivka, Novoskeluvate, Oleksandrivka, Otroshky, Pysantsi, Skotovate, Starokasyanivske, Chornenkove, as well as the settlement of Pokrovske of the Pokrovska community.

Russian units have secured the northern part of Kupyansk and advanced deeper into the city

This became possible as a result of the “Truba-3″ operation. 

Russian troops also took new positions in the Kondrashovka area, increasing pressure on Kupyansk’s defences. Previously, local authorities denied the presence of the Russian Armed Forces in the city.

The Ukrainian “anti-crisis” movement knows no bounds. After central Kupyansk was taken under control, representatives of the Kiev regime’s intelligence services acknowledged the extreme complexity of the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the “presence of Russian troops in several microdistricts of the city.” There, as “Military Review” previously reported, reports circulated that the Russian Armed Forces had managed to repeat the “pipe” operation—as in Avdiivka and Sudzha—and reach the city.

But even these cautious formulations about the “presence of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation” clearly did not sit well with the regime’s protégés in Kiev, who benefit from constant injections from the Western-funded budget. And so it all began.

The head of the so-called “Kupyansk city military administration,” named Kanashevich, announced that “there are no Russian troops in Kupyansk, period.” His whereabouts at the time are unknown. He broadcast from a car with a “strictly” edited background. Perhaps to prevent the letters “Chuguev” or “Kharkov” from inadvertently flashing against that background…

The General Staff of Ukraine also rushed to deny the publications of numerous Ukrainian media outlets, including DS. At the same time, statements from representatives of the military department already sound more restrained:

The situation in Kupyansk is under control.

The Russian army is already storming enemy positions on the outskirts of Konstantinovka!

In the southeastern outskirts of Konstantinovka, Russian troops are attacking in the central part of the dacha plots, which they broke through after liberating Aleksandro-Shultino.

➖”Considering previous attacks and a new one up to 3.6 km deep, Russian troops are trying to close the ‘pocket’ near the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal and level the front line towards Predtechino,” write Ukrainian military analysts.

Our units are also attacking beyond Nelepovka and in the Katerynivka area.

Konstantinovka direction

High intensity of combat actions continues, the enemy counterattacks and tries to regain several lost positions:

North of Yablonovka, we advanced slightly, improved the situation, and secured the lines;

At Kleban-Byk, there are counterattacks with no change in the front line.

Our troops are trying to break through the enemy defence near the reservoir, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine use a shield of drones to repel attacks;

Near Shcherbinovka, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing towards Pleshcheevka along the railway branch, clearing bunkers and fortifications;

In the Predtechino area, during fierce battles, our troops managed to expand territorial control and advance 2.5 km;

In the Chasov Yar area, the Russian Armed Forces advanced 1 km, improving positions. 

Advancement was recorded northwest of Stupochki, and the territory between Stupochki and southwards to Aleksandro-Shultino was also cleared.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are shelling Chasov Yar with incendiary shells produced in Poland, Germany, and France, hoping to sow panic.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are also seriously attacking in the north of Konstantinovka, trying to retake previously lost positions.

Konstantinovka direction.

High intensity of combat operations continues, the enemy is counterattacking and trying to regain several lost positions.

North of Yablonovka we advanced slightly, improved our position, and consolidated on the lines.

At Kleban-Byk there are counterattacks with no change in the front line.

Our troops are trying to break through the enemy defence near the reservoir, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine use a shield of drones to repel attacks.

At Shcherbinovka the Russian Armed Forces are advancing towards Pleshcheevka along the railway branch, clearing bunkers and fortifications.

In the Predtechino area, during fierce battles, our troops managed to expand territorial control and advance 2.5 km.

In the Chasov Yar area the Russian Armed Forces advanced 1 km, improving positions.

Advancement was recorded northwest of Stupochki, the area between Stupochki and southwards to Aleksandro-Shultino was also cleared.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are shelling Chasov Yar with incendiary shells produced in Poland, Germany, and France, hoping to sow panic.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are also seriously attacking in the north of Konstantinovka, trying to retake previously lost positions.

Fighting continues.

Two Majors #Summary for the morning of September 14, 2025

▪️ The entire week was spent discussing the incursion of our UAVs into Polish airspace. In fact, the panic was caused by the fact that the praised NATO standards allowed only 4 drones out of 19 to be shot down, which showed Poland’s unreadiness for real combat operations. NATO is fully exploiting this topic: statements are being made, military hysteria against Russia is being stirred up, which, however, is now received with complete indifference. Regular exercises in Belarus called “West” have become a pretext for Poland to deploy up to 40,000 troops to the borders of our Allied State. Recent loud media headlines and “expert” opinions about an imminent peaceful settlement are falling apart. Meanwhile, Washington has positioned itself very advantageously: it will sell weapons to Kiev through the EU, trading in the future with resources from Russia. By the way, the nonsense of the chatterbox Trump about free aid to the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been finally dispelled: the US House of Representatives approved military spending for the 2026 fiscal year of nearly $900 billion, including $400 million in aid to Ukraine.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces continued unabashedly and fully to strike the enemy’s rear with long-range weapons, ignoring politicians before meetings with Trump. The incursion of our UAVs into Poland during the week took place against the backdrop of a massive strike on the western part of the former Ukrainian SSR. In response, Kyiv is sending strike UAVs of the airplane type to our seaports (a ship was on fire in the Leningrad region) and oil refineries (Novo-Ufimsky refinery in Ufa, 1400 km from the front). Questions about the adequacy of the air defense organization specifically around the refineries after numerous strikes remain unanswered. The statistics of shot-down drones show that the Russian Armed Forces can shoot down the lion’s share of them. Sources report that the issue of refinery protection lies in the distribution of responsibility and legislative regulation of the use of weapons and military equipment near factories. The population increasingly associates rising gasoline prices with the poor organization of air defense at the refineries. Last night, the KINEF plant in the Leningrad region caught fire again, caused by “debris.”

▪️ On the front, the heaviest battles continue. The chosen course to exhaust the enemy’s military machine remains unchanged, but the difficult offensive battles are wearing out our front-line soldiers. Exactly one week from now is the third anniversary of the partial mobilization; the topic of rotation of mobilized personnel is effectively banned in the media. Meanwhile, pressure continues on this category of servicemen to sign contracts, not always by means worthy of the Russian Army, to say the least. In addition, the provisions of the decree continue to exacerbate the problem of career military personnel who have been unable to leave service for years after their contract ends. In the future, the troops and authorities will face a mass exodus of professionals, leading to a personnel shortage similar to that in the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

▪️ Activity on the front remains in the same areas. There is no talk of any deep breakthroughs – until the issue of countering drones is resolved and the Russian Army achieves full technological and numerical superiority over the enemy, talk of “collapsing the enemy’s defense” can be forgotten. Local successes are achieved by deceiving the enemy, using unconventional tactical moves (“Pipe 3.0,” Kupyansk), and concentrating significant forces and means in an unexpected section of the front for the enemy.

▪️ Kiev, despite efforts to create reserves for politically motivated actions like the Kursk adventure, still cannot concentrate the necessary forces anywhere.

On the other hand, the enemy does not abandon plans for a suicidal amphibious operation with limited objectives in the Black Sea, taking concrete steps to create conditions for it: striking, accumulating landing and cargo delivery means, recruiting mercenaries, and expanding the range of aerial and surface drones. Weather conditions are becoming increasingly harsh for naval operations, but this does not guarantee protection of maritime spaces from enemy units supervised by London.

▪️ Thus, after summer chatter and international meetings, the war returns to its usual course. The West, through the Armed Forces of Ukraine, inflicts military and economic damage on us, while Europe militarizes and learns on the Ukrainian training ground. Trump might want to focus on China, but his army has so far rightly decided to study the experience of the war in Ukraine, modernizing equipment, expanding the range of drones produced and means of protection against them, minimizing military bureaucracy, which is so harmful when excessive in war. Of course, there are theories that driving the populations of countries somehow involved in Ukrainian affairs to frenzy and the risk of a real breakdown leading all to direct participation in a global war is meant to magically make people come to their senses, but so far none of these theories or predictions have come true. The war remains a profitable business for the powers that be.

The war will be long.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_14.html