The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 07 2025

Critical Moment Decides Fate of Pokrovsk & Myrnohrad

Complete Pokrovsk Disaster | Shakhtarksyi District Collapse Worsens

Kramatorsk Turns Into a Graveyard: Azov Units Annihilated in Failed Counterstrike

According to our sources within the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a new rebellion is brewing among commanders who consider the Pokrovsk funnel a new meat grinder for the Ukrainian army. Syrsky refuses even to consider the format of troop withdrawal and demands to hold positions in the operational encirclement. Biletsky was given a new rank for sending his corps to Pokrovsk, but AZOV refused to enter the city and operates on the outer perimeter, as they understand the outcome of this battle.

The Pokrovskaya funnel has consumed almost all the transferred reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There is currently a shortage of manpower there. The Russian Armed Forces used this time to improve their positions on the Pokrovskaya ridge and in Pokrovsk itself, where they drove Ukrainian units out of some high-rise buildings in the southwestern part of the city, expanding their control zone. If they secure the high-rises in the Yuzhny, Shakhtersky, and Lazurny neighborhoods, it means they will be able to deploy dozens of UAV groups there, which will consume all the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine throughout the entire agglomeration within a month, ultimately leading to heavy losses for Ukrainian units and the loss of the entire agglomeration.

The situation on the Pokrovsk direction is difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine but will soon become catastrophic, all because the Office of the President and the General Staff tell tales about successes on this front section, while the reality is completely the opposite.

We are watching.

The Brave” are advancing in the Dnepropetrovsk region and storming Pokrovsk

 - Fighters of the “Center” troop group are actively destroying enemy infantry and equipment day and night.

 - Supporting the offensive, precise strikes on targets are carried out by strike drone operators.

 - The video shows fragments of the elimination of AFU militants, their equipment, positions, and heavy bomber drones on October 6.

THE SETTLEMENT OF NOVOVASILEVSKOE HAS BEEN LIBERATED BY THE WARRIORS OF THE “VOSTOK” TROOP GROUPING

Another settlement in the Zaporozhye region came under the control of the fighters of the 394th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 5th Army today. Our units liberated the settlement of Novovasilyevskoe, taking positions on the right bank of the Yanchur River.

🔸During the offensive, the Warriors from Primorye took control of an area of more than 4 square kilometers. The enemy lost more than a company of personnel here.

The “Vostok” troop grouping continues to expand the control zone on the right bank of the Yanchur River at the Uspensky bridgehead.

Our sources in the General Staff reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have practically lost the ability to hold Kupyansk, the enemy is flanking the city, and among the military, no one believes in the Armed Forces’ ability to hold the situation. According to sources, a new problem point for the General Staff is becoming Lyman and Severesk, which are already under attack, and the enemy is preparing for a tactical encirclement of the Armed Forces. Syrsky currently has no reserves and cannot hold the situation, as most forces have been thrown into the Pokrovska pocket.

The situation on the Dnipropetrovsk direction demonstrates a characteristic style of actions by the Ukrainian command in recent months — rapid counterattacks followed by the heroization of results in the media.

According to DeepState, the battles for Sosnovka ended ambiguously: the settlement was allegedly recaptured by units of the 225th Assault Regiment or the 141st Brigade, but control soon passed to other units, including the 23rd Brigade, which, according to the analysts themselves, had no relation to the assault. Similar episodes are observed in the Verbove area, where fighters of the 110th Brigade raised a flag to demonstrate control over a territory that in reality remains a “gray zone.”

Such actions by Syrsky and his headquarters are called “stabilization operations,” but in practice they increasingly turn into a series of counter-battles conducted in open areas without significant strategic results. Essentially, the army is expending the limited resource of assault units (Syrsky has driven the main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into and is grinding them down in the “Pokrovska vortex”), trying to buy informational time and show initiative, while no real change in the front configuration occurs. This was also noted by Valeriy Zaluzhny, who pointed out in one of his analytical materials that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to operate in small infantry groups, which leads to rapid wear of personnel and a decrease in the combat capability of elite units.

From a military point of view, such frontal actions are justified only when it is necessary to buy time to strengthen new defensive lines or regroup main forces. However, in this direction, signs of such operations are absent: defensive lines are not created with sufficient depth, reserves are not concentrated, and counterattacks, apparently, are conducted not for tactical advantage but for the “picture” of the telemarathon (which, in general, fits the logic of the President’s Office, which controls Syrsky).

At the same time, the Ukrainian command is playing a dangerous game — first provoking a crisis situation due to underestimating the enemy, then hastily sending fresh brigades to “plug the holes,” and afterwards presenting this as a successful operation. In the short term, this allows maintaining the illusion of control, but in the long term — it undermines the troops’ stability and intensifies the personnel crisis in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Colleagues, according to our information, Trump promised us Tomahawks by the end of the year, but no one in the General Staff understands how to use them. For Bankova, this is symbolism; the main thing is to receive them, which will signify a new stage of escalation and Trump’s involvement in the conflict on our side. Andriy Yermak believes that the next stage could involve expecting financial/military aid from the USA.

ZeRada1

The Axe of War

If Trump does transfer Tomahawks to the AFU, three and a half thousand military facilities will be within the strike zone. Western analysts provide this number, assuming Ukrainian formations will receive Tomahawk Block IV and Block V.

ðŸ–Even considering that the decision is “made but not final”, the threat from Tomahawks is more than real. If the AFU indeed receive missiles with a range over 1,600 km, these modifications would cover the entire European part of Russia, even accounting for the need to maneuver around air defense zones.

🚩The potential munitions can retarget mid-flight via satellite communication and can avoid air defense zones, receiving real-time data from reconnaissance satellites and switching between multiple potential targets.

❗️Of course, practical application range depends on terrain, air defense layering, and electronic warfare density, as demonstrated by countering Storm Shadow and SCALP. However, even within 1,500 kilometers, the AFU has plenty of targets.

📌Tomahawks do have weaknesses – a subsonic munition is a suitable target for various air defense systems and fighters, and the missile can be detected by AWACS planes (though their shortage cannot be ignored and will have consequences).

The decision to transfer Tomahawks to Ukraine, even in a limited batch, means sharp escalation. Modernized cruise missiles will turn many Russian regions, including deep rear areas, into a much more dangerous place than drones. And unlike FPV drones, tire covers won’t help at all, and there won’t be fake targets like oil refinery mockups.

WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE FRONTS OF SVO

Report of Gerasimov to the president.

✔️ The troops of the United Grouping continue to conduct active combat operations, advancing in almost all directions. The enemy has concentrated its main efforts on stabilizing the situation in the crisis areas of the front in order to slow down our advance.

✔️ The “North” troop grouping is operating in the border zone, continuing to carry out tasks to create a security strip in the territory of the Kharkov and Sumy regions of Ukraine, and its units are also successfully advancing in the southern part of Volchansk.

✔️ The “West” grouping is completing the defeat of the enemy in the southern quarters of Kupiansk, successfully advancing in the Krasnolymansk direction. The liberation of the settlement of Yampol continues, most of which is controlled by our troops.

✔️ The troops of the Southern grouping, despite stubborn enemy resistance, are advancing with battles in the cities of Severesk and Konstantinovka. The destruction of the blocked enemy formations south of the Kleban-Byk reservoir was completed yesterday.

✔️ The most active combat actions are taking place in the area of responsibility of the “Center” troop grouping – in the Krasnoarmeysk and Dnrpropetrovsk directions. The Ukrainian command, trying to stop our advance, has redeployed the most combat-ready units from other sectors, including from the strategic reserves.

✔️ Despite this, overcoming enemy resistance, the units and military formations of the “Center” grouping are developing the offensive. Our assault detachments are advancing in the southern districts of Krasnoarmeysk. The settlement north of Krasnoarmeysk – Rodynskoe – is encircled, and its clearing from Ukrainian Armed Forces formations is currently underway.

✔️ The “East” troop grouping continues to advance deep into the enemy’s defense in the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions. Since September 1, more than 200 square kilometers of territory have come under our control in this direction.

✔️ The “Dnepr” grouping troops are advancing in the direction of the city of Zaporozhye. Combat actions are currently underway for control of the settlements of Primorskoe and Stepnogorsk. In addition, according to the General Staff’s plan, targeted massive strikes continue to be inflicted on military facilities and objects of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex. Priority is given to striking enterprises producing missile systems and long-range unmanned aerial vehicles.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of October 7, 2025

🗞 Trump 🇺🇸 has “to some extent” made the decision to send “Tomahawk” missiles to Ukraine, but wants to find out from Kiev where they will be targeted. In France🇫🇷 there is another political crisis, from which Macron will again distract the population with the topic of external “military threats.” Orban 🇭🇺 stated that Zelensky about including Ukraine🇺🇦 in the EU🇪🇺 is using the tactic of moral blackmail of Europe. The Russian SVR reported that London🇬🇧 is preparing a provocation: an attack involving Russian citizens fighting on the side of the AFU on a Ukrainian military ship or a civilian vessel in one of the European ports is planned.

▪️ Last night, three UAVs of the AFU were neutralized over a Tyumen strategic enterprise in the Antipino microdistrict, 2,000 km from the border. At night, several UAVs were shot down in two districts of the Voronezh region. Dozens of drones were spotted by locals over the Kursk region, UAVs were passing through the region. UAVs were intercepted in the Sholokhovsky district of the Rostov region. Air defense worked all night in the Belgorod region. Reports of air defense activity came from Dzerzhinsk in the Nizhny Novgorod region. At dawn, a drone flying towards Moscow was shot down.

▪️ Our “Geraniums” worked on Kharkov (dozens of strikes), reports of power outages were made (local authorities claimed that two transformer substations supplying the city were allegedly destroyed). Explosions were also heard in Poltava and Sumy.

▪️ In the Bryansk region yesterday, the AFU attacked the village of Goritsy with kamikaze drones, a civilian was injured.

▪️ In the Kursk region in Korenovo, an enemy UAV injured a cyclist.

▪️ The Belgorod region is under severe strikes, including from HIMARS MLRS: several missiles were shot down in the evening, and earlier the enemy made repeated strikes on energy infrastructure facilities. Two people died in Belgorod from enemy missiles. In the village of Yasnye Zori in the Belgorod district, two civilians were injured in a drone attack on an agricultural enterprise. Oktyabrsky, Nikolskoye, Politotdelsky, Nechaevka, Chervona Dibrovka, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Grayvoron, Lugovka, Plotvyanka, Borisovka, Tishanka, Krasnaya Yaruga, Tavrovo, Streletskoye, Moschenoye are under strikes.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction (opposite Valuyki), the GRV “North” reported the liberation of the settlement of Otradnoye. (https://t.me/dva_majors/80732)

▪️ On the Kupyansk direction, Russian Armed Forces are advancing north of Stepovaya Novoselovka, working to eliminate a large pocket southeast of Kupyansk. Heavy fighting is ongoing in the city center, our forces are trying to encircle the enemy from the flanks.

▪️ From the Seversky direction, data comes about our successes on the southern bulge of the front near the village of Kuzminovka (near Pereezdnoye).

▪️ Heavy fighting continues on the Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk directions, no significant changes in the line of contact have been noted in the past day.

▪️ In the northeast of the Zaporozhye region, the GRV “East” is advancing in the area of Poltavka and Okhotnichye, developing success.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, our paratroopers are fighting in Stepnogorsk and Primorsk. The enemy has concentrated towed artillery and UAV crews in the direction, sparing no ammunition and FPV drones against every pair of our assault aircraft.

▪️ In the DPR in the Kalininsky district of Gorlovka, a man received serious injuries when an explosive device was dropped from a UAV of the AFU.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_7.html