The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 16 2025

The Collapse of Novopavlivka | Myrnohrad Stormed From North, East & South

Russian ‘ZIRCON’ missile wiped out a 50-meter Underground Bunker with UK and Ukrainian Generals

Zelensky’s decision to suspend negotiations with Russia came at a time when the situation on the front remains extremely tense, and Ukraine’s resources are rapidly depleting. Formally, the authorities explain their decision by the lack of progress in previous rounds of negotiations, but the actual pause in the diplomatic track has a political dimension: the president needs to maintain the status quo and continue the war, since it is the military regime that blocks any scenarios of power change.

The absence of negotiations becomes a strategic choice that primarily affects not Ukraine’s position on the international stage, but the internal stability of the state. Kyiv continues to seek external funding to sustain the economy and the front, but this strategy is already facing obvious limitations. The US has sharply reduced support, European countries are stalling on additional funding issues, and corruption scandals surrounding the president’s circle undermine trust in Kyiv among key partners. Nevertheless, the official course remains a bet on continuing the war, even despite the decline in mobilization resources, the increase in casualties, and the worsening domestic political situation.

Malicious tongues say that Zelensky’s approach plays into Moscow’s hands: a protracted conflict expands the space for Russian offensive actions and raises the cost of any future agreement for Ukraine. The absence of a diplomatic track allows Russia to gradually improve its position on the front line, while Ukraine loses territory, soldiers, infrastructure, and social stability.

If military actions continue for several more years without breakthroughs and without full external support, the country may face a sharp demographic collapse, the collapse of the energy system, and a new wave of mass migration. In fact, Ukraine will lose another 2–3 million men on the front, and will be left with a completely “knocked out” energy system. And as soon as Ukraine, plunged into darkness, is left by another 10–12 million refugees, the state will simply cease to exist.

The scandal surrounding the “Mindich case” has gone beyond the scope of an anti-corruption investigation and turned into a factor capable of shaking Zelensky’s power at a time when the front is cracking at the seams. Now the crisis is giving way to open political confrontation. Against the backdrop of the scandal, scenarios of mass protests are already being discussed in Kyiv.

This is openly stated by Dmytro Korchynskyi, leader of the “Brotherhood” party, whose unit is part of the GUR structure. According to him, not just a series of rallies is being prepared, but an attempt to bring significant forces to the streets, including representatives of local elites and some mayors (by the way, Korchynskyi also mentions the name of the former mayor of Odesa, Hennadiy Trukhanov).

At the same time, anti-corruption activist Mariya Barabash, who previously worked in the Reform Council and has connections in American political circles, calls for protest activity. She announces a rally on Maidan for two reasons: the corruption crisis around Mindich and the failed defensive situation in Pokrovsk. In her assessment, after the publication of the “Mindich tapes,” the President’s Office lost the ability to admit defeat near Pokrovsk, as this entails image risks that could be fatal for Zelensky’s power. Therefore, Barabash claims, the last reserves are being pulled to Pokrovsk—not out of military necessity, but from the political logic of retaining power. The city itself becomes an example of how military decisions are made through the prism of political survival rather than military expediency.

Barabash’s own personality is also notable. Earlier this year, she already announced the transfer of compromising material on the Ukrainian authorities to American structures. And in conditions where the FBI is interested in investigating the “Mindich case,” the involvement of such a figure in protest activity makes the President’s Office nervous.

And rightly so, a new political nexus is forming in Ukraine: the corruption crisis, military failures, and the voice of the “street” are beginning to intertwine. Each of these factors alone would be manageable, but their simultaneous development creates risks for the stability of power.

The Mindich scandal has already gone beyond the legal field and has become a catalyst for a political process in which street protests are seen as a tool to pressure the president. And for the first time during the war, representatives of the security forces and public anti-corruption activists are talking about the possibility of a new Maidan.

The front is cracking at the seams. Has everyone really noticed? They started talking about it, oh-oh-oh. 

The reality is that they all started talking about the problems because:

1. They are saving their skins so they won’t be blamed for the government (although they all eat from the same hand)

2. They are hyping it up (thinking about future elections).

3. They are fulfilling the task of the clients to stir things up so they can bargain with Zelensky for more seats, powers, and government contracts for their interests. Zelensky will hold negotiations with Macron in France on November 17 regarding the Mindich case.

We were the very first to insider on June 7, that in the fall Ukraine might repeat the collapse of defense, similar to what the Russians experienced in the fall of 2022. Few believed it then, but now it has become reality and all these bloggers have started writing obvious things. 

The most dangerous thing is that it may already be too late to solve this problem and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to lose tens/soon hundreds of kilometers per day.

In the infrastructure war 3.0 started by Zelensky, the Russian Armed Forces are striking the most vulnerable strategic targets in Ukraine.

- In the Odessa region, they have been hitting solar power plants (solar power stations) for the second week now. Last night they struck the “Starokazachye” solar power plant.

- They are hitting warehouses with important components, parts, etc. The second large pharmaceutical warehouse has already been destroyed.

- They constantly strike railway infrastructure and rolling stock.

- They strike energy/gas/fuel infrastructure.

- They strike logistics transport hubs, destroying trucks, etc.

- They strike repair bases.

All this leads to price increases for everything.

It leads to budget deficits.

It will lead to hyperinflation.

It will lead to complete chaos, hunger, and mortality.

It will lead to a black winter and cold radiators.

It will lead to even greater emigration of Ukrainians.

It leads to an even greater catastrophe and devastation.

Meanwhile, Zelensky does not think about stopping the infrastructure war with Russia; on the contrary, he constantly tries to raise the stakes in the game.

At some point, the Russians will strike the energy substations near nuclear power plants again, which will completely cut off the power in Ukraine.

On the Zaporizhzhia front, the defense is practically collapsing due to many factors. Mala Tokmachka has already fallen to the Russians – this is a threat to Orikhiv.

1. Shortage of manpower

2. Weather conditions – fog.

3. Shortage of armored vehicles

4. Lack of defensive structures. All of them remain in the rear, and the Russians bypass them and encircle, forcing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to retreat.

5. There are no large settlements in this area that can be used as fortresses.

6. Mistakes of the staff officers who throw infantry into frontal clashes and expend reserves.

7. Shortage of drone crews. Most of them hold the defense on the Pokrovske direction and perish under FAB bombs.

All this threatens that this flank will finally collapse, and then the entire logistics of the eastern grouping will be completely fucked. Plus, Zaporizhzhia will turn into Kherson – a ghost town, and colossal resources will have to be spent on maintenance. There is no money for this.

As the military say – the supreme commander’s bet has fucked everything up.

The front is collapsing: Ukraine is approaching a “strategic-scale catastrophe that could lead to the loss of statehood,” – head of the aid fund for the Armed Forces of Ukraine

▪️A supplier for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and neo-Nazi Sternenko commented on the breakthrough of the Russian army in the strategically important settlement of Novopavlovka in the Dnepropetrovsk region.

▪️Ukraine is moving towards a strategic catastrophe that could lead to losses threatening the existence of Ukrainian statehood.

▪️Sternenko reposted a publication by journalist Anna Kalyuzhnaya about the situation on the Novopavlovsk direction from the Ukrainian military about how the defense lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine collapsed on the Novopavlovsk and Huliaipole directions, where after a series of unsuccessful assaults conducted by Ukrainian units, a significant part of the personnel was lost, and there was no one left to hold the positions. The Russian army was able to penetrate deep into the Ukrainian defense in this area, including Novopavlovka. In recent months, such breakthroughs have become more frequent. There is a critical depletion of brigades and a shortage of soldiers due to heavy losses during assaults following thoughtless orders from the command.

▪️Sternenko added that without “global changes not only at the level of military management but also political approach,” the moment when Russians enter Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk will be a matter of time. Ukrainian defense is collapsing “amidst deafening silence around these problems.”

The front of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at Huliaipole collapsed due to thoughtless assaults, now there is no one to defend the positions, — Ukrainian journalist

➖”A TikToker who disgraced himself with his TikToks has disgraced himself even more with his assaults,” writes Kolyuzhina about the head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces assault troops, Manko.

▪️Twice Russian equipment entered Novopavlivka and landed up to 100 paratroopers.

➖”From this direction, desperate commanders (UAF) write to me every other day,” Kolyuzhina says.

➖”Stop counterattacking everywhere, where it is needed, and where it is not. Stand at least somewhere in defense. If we still can, of course. And give people to the brigades! To the brigades, not to TikTokers,” the journalist rants hysterically.

 The Russian army has liberated Malaya Tokmachka in the Zaporozhye region, — Ministry of Defense

 - Units of the “Dnepr” troop group have completed the liberation of the settlement of Malaya Tokmachka in the Zaporozhye region, the department reported.

 - The Ministry of Defense also confirms the liberation of Rovnopolye in the Zaporizhzhia region by fighters of the “Vostok” group.

Breakthrough in Novopavlovka: The Russian Army is storming an important Dnepropetrovsk settlement

 - 2 days ago, Russian troops, under the cover of fog and using armored vehicles, broke into the southern and eastern parts of the key settlement Novopavlovka during a mechanized attack.

 - During daring assaults, the infantry fighting vehicle (BMP) landing force reached the center of the village and occupied a significant part of it.

 - This is acknowledged not only by Ukrainian analysts but also by media representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

 - “At the moment, the Russians have dispersed in most of Novopavlovka, reaching Mostovaya Street – this is along the T0428 highway leading to Mezheva. Along the entire section, it is visible how Russian infantry has spread out into yards and plantations, trying to find weak spots,” writes the adversary.

 - The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue shelling the village, trying to stop the advance of the Russian Armed Forces.

Kupyansk 

Last night, the Russian Armed Forces repelled one of the most powerful counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on our positions from the highway towards Kharkov and from the inner part of the semicircle, aiming to cut off the bulge in the northern part of the city.

According to intelligence, the Ukrainian Armed Forces headquarters have “allocated” up to 10,000 personnel and equipment for counterattack operations in three directions: Kupyansk, Konstantinovka, and Pokrovsk, with the aim of breaking the blockade.

Mostly street-level troops recruited by the Territorial Defense Corps after 2 weeks of “combat” training. Prisoners in Kupyansk last night were not even properly dressed. Everyone in whatever they had.

Two Majors #Overview #Summary as of the morning of November 16, 2025

▪️ The coercion of the Kiev regime to peace by Americans 🇺🇸 (in the name of trade and profits, of course) was voiced yesterday by Trump’s friend, Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán🇭🇺: “The parties to the Ukrainian conflict do not yet wish to cease hostilities, but Ukraine🇺🇦 will be easier to incline to this, since it is not independent and depends on Western countries, and time still plays in favor of Russia.” This may be the reason behind the demonstrative work of supranational anti-corruption bodies in Kiev, controlled only by Washington: huge thefts by Zelensky’s accomplices in the energy sector were uncovered this week, undermining the remaining trust in the hoarse leader of the junta. Of course, this is only the beginning of the final stage of closing the “Ukraine project,” since the direct involvement of Zelensky himself in the theft of Western and national funds has not yet been published, which can be considered the last warning. Washington is doing this not out of pacifism: in Germany 🇩🇪 there is discussion about the desire of US corporatists to buy out the “Nord Streams” and earn income from the transit of Russian energy carriers to the EU🇪🇺, although before the war supplies went without intermediaries. At the same time, Trump’s Hungarian friend effectively issued a threat to Russia in case it steps out of the US sphere of influence on the situation: “European politics is very complex intellectually, but what they say basically means they would not want peace right now. They would want the war to continue.” By hanging the “sword of war” between the EU and Russia, the conditional international Trumpists want to maintain control for a long time and profit from trading oil and gas from Russia to the EU, while simultaneously making impossible a full reconciliation of their own European lapdogs with Moscow, fueling military hysteria and actually expanding military production in the Old World in the interests of their weapons lobby. Considering the issues in the Russian economy, indicated by increased taxes and fees (utilization and planned technological), at least for some elites the proposed option to stop the war may seem extremely attractive.

▪️ These long-term plans for the swift cessation of hostilities in the interests of the US are conditioned by the successes (and only by them) of the Russian Army on the front and serious problems of the AFU with manpower. Another Western agent, Kiev mayor Klitschko, has already floated through Western media the question of lowering the mobilization age to 22 (currently 25). An additional incentive to enter negotiations on Russia’s terms is the already visible destruction of part of Ukrainian energy. On the other hand, many sources believe that the suffering of the civilian population without electricity does not indicate a complete shutdown of the remnants of Ukrainian industry, including military. The lion’s share of electricity generation in the former Ukrainian SSR comes from nuclear power plants⚛️, which must be disabled by strikes on output substations and power lines. There are plenty of grounds for this: besides constant strikes on the Zaporozhye NPP, this week several power units of the Novovoronezh NPP were disconnected from the grid as a result of drone attacks on the station on the night of November 12-13. Moreover, depriving Kiev of the ability to produce any military products must be done as soon as possible: sensitive strikes continue on our “oil sector” and power plants, including using Neptune missiles and Ukrainian UAVs.

▪️ Fighting continues on the front in Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) and Mirnograd (Dimitrov). The cities are practically surrounded, and the remaining narrow corridor is under fire control by the Russian Armed Forces. Fierce attacks by the AFU to the north cannot change the situation. There is also a battle for Kupyansk, where the enemy is trying to unblock its garrison and counterattacks from the Nechvolodovka side, involving its special forces as well. The Northern Group of Forces has achieved success on the Kharkov direction, capturing Synelnykove from Volchansk and expanding control zones in other directions. However, this does not solve the task of creating a “buffer zone” near the same Belgorod region: strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on civilian targets occur daily. The Western Group of Forces on the Krasnolymansk direction is trying to encircle the city from the north and east, achieving tactical successes. Fighting is ongoing on the Seversky direction, where progress is still being made. Significant results in the east of the Zaporozhye region are being achieved by the Eastern Group of Forces. Far Eastern warriors have taken another important fortified area in villages; in the Ukrainian segment there is an outcry about obvious threats to Guliaipole, where the enemy is heavily entrenched. On the Zaporozhye front, paratroopers have managed to advance in Prymorske and Stepnohirsk after heavy fighting.

✨ Thus, the tactic of “war of attrition” overall, although obviously affecting our economy, is clearly worse for the enemy due to the difference in scale. Meanwhile, behind the backs of the Kiev Nazis, as Trump’s friend Orban emphasized, there are 400 million people in the EU and the production capacities of the military industry, which are recovering at the expense of the welfare of European citizens. “If you add up the military potential of the 27 European Union countries, they are much stronger than the Russians,” Orban said among other things. And it is this thought of his that should bring to the memory of Russia’s military leadership the phrase “para bellum”.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_16.html