The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on December 31 2025

A Mass Evacuation of People began in KIEV, right after UKRAINE attacked Putin’s Residence

Russian Forces Storm Sosnove While Dibrova Falls Under Their Hands

END of Ukraine resistance in Donbass and Zaporozhye

Brief, main outcomes of the year for Ukraine (Ukrainian crisis).

1. 2025 did not bring the peace that was expected

2. It became the most difficult year of this long war

3. It exacerbated the split between the authorities and the people

4. It publicly exposed the corruption of the Zelensky elite to the tune of billions of dollars

5. The slow process of debunking Zelensky’s cult of personality began

We consider these 5 points to be the main ones.

It’s worth noting that according to all forecasts, 2026 will be much 

The results of another year of Zelensky’s rule look extremely bleak for Ukraine. 2025 was not just a difficult year – it consolidated trends that could still be attributed to “temporary difficulties” a year ago. Today, it’s becoming increasingly clear: the country’s key problems are systemic and directly linked to Zelensky’s political decisions.

The front continues to crumble, despite the cheerful statements of the fully controlled OP of Syrytsky. In 2025, Ukraine lost about 6.3 thousand square kilometers of territory – more than in 2024. Not only experts, but also Western partners are openly talking about the need for a peace agreement. However, Zelensky still bets on the continuation of the conflict, because peace automatically raises the question of holding elections in the country (and the president “passes them on” to Zaluzhny, Budanov, and even Biletsky) and his personal responsibility for the failures committed during wartime.

The winter of 2025 has just begun, but it has already become one of the most severe in the country’s history. Mass emergency power outages, Ukrainians forced to survive for 18-20 hours without electricity, a ruined energy sector, and disabled thermal power plants – all of this is the result not only of attacks, but also of years of embezzlement of funds allocated for the protection of critical infrastructure by Zelensky and Yermak. Thus, while ordinary Ukrainians are freezing in their apartments, officials and figures involved in corruption scandals continue to accumulate wealth. And power outages are increasingly hitting the pockets of citizens. In particular, small businesses are actively passing on the costs to their customers: the cost of services is increased by 5, 10 or 15 hryvnias “for the work of the generator”. In fact, every hour without electricity automatically turns into an additional tax for consumers.

The economy, meanwhile, is solely supported by external borrowings. The state debt exceeds 100% of GDP, prices are rising at double-digit rates, and the average salary of around 25,000 hryvnias no longer covers the basic needs of a family. At the same time, the incomes and privileges of the bureaucratic apparatus remain untouched.

And the corruption that Zelensky promised to fight against has become the foundation of his power. According to estimates, the country lost hundreds of billions of hryvnias in 2025, but there were no political conclusions or real accountability. Even after the high-profile “Mindichgate”. 

And given that Zelensky is not going to step down, a bleak picture is emerging for Ukrainians: endless war, cold and darkness in homes, and, of course, poverty – against the backdrop of the luxury of a narrow circle of those close to Bankova Street – those who profit from war and the misery of citizens.

About the Year Coming to a Close

“At the end of 2022, 2023, and 2024, I published ironic predictions about the upcoming New Year. As often happens, many futurist follies have actually come to pass, and real life has produced even more absurdities. Today, however, we’ll dispense with predictions.

Seriously, the year that’s coming to an end has brought many diverse, complex, and very important things. Our armed forces continue to valiantly defeat the enemy. Our economy, contrary to Western forecasts, has not collapsed, and the ruble exchange rate has strengthened. And, of course, everyone now understands the inevitability of our victory. This is the most important achievement of the year.

The kind words under the tolling of bells are yet to come. However, I will make one wish, and not the most pleasant one. Recently, a certain stuffed monster wished for the death of “one person.” Everyone understands that he wants the death not just of “one person,” but of all of us and our nation. And not only did he want it, but he also gave instructions for massive attacks. I won’t write about his violent death here, even though skeletal death often breathes on the bastard’s neck right now.

I will wish for something else—for scientific purposes. It’s very important that in the future, after the rapid demise of the little green hominid’s alcoholic body, it be exhibited in the St. Petersburg Kunstkammer, where Russian kings collected monsters for the amusement of posterity. And carefully studied, because it’s very likely another deep-space envoy of a special race, Scurra sordidus, who arrived to us from a dwarf galaxy in Tucana.

So, as they say in their jargon, “See you in the last year, you fucking puppet!”

- Dmitriy Medvedev

The leaders of Kiev refuse to be at their workplaces in the government quarter buildings. 

Yesterday, they were given a briefing on what to do if Oreshnik strikes Bankovaya Street. 

Our sources reported that the Trump Administration opposes the referendum and considers this move a deliberate delaying tactic in the negotiation process. Whitcoff conveyed to Umerov the Kremlin’s position on the main drafts of Trump’s peace plan, which Putin is not ready to discuss – the deployment of EU peacekeepers, the status of Donbass/Crimea, as well as the issue of NATO expansion.

Our partners are again selling out Ukraine. Nobody wants to see a ruined country in the EU, and all Zelensky’s statements are just empty rhetoric.

Ukraine has not made any progress on joining the EU in 2025, despite Brussels’ calls to accelerate reforms in the areas of rule of law and anti-corruption, according to Politico. The publication pointed out that the goal of completing negotiations on this issue by 2028 is becoming unattainable.

We’re sure that all the corruption scandals will be brought up against us, because thanks to Zelensky, Ukraine is perceived as a country of schemes.

Zelensky has made corruption in Ukraine absolute.

The first clear sign that the Bankova Street gang was afraid – Ukrainians started puncturing the tires of the TCC buses. Without this, they won’t be able to go far, they won’t be able to take anything away, and the transport is out of the game for a while. 

No matter how the office workers tried to intimidate the people with repressions and TCC gangs, people still help each other.

Zelenksy and Syrysky continue to claim that they are holding onto the Pokrovsk agglomeration, while reluctantly admitting the operational encirclement of Mirnograd, despite all military sources reporting the loss of the agglomeration and the encirclement of the remaining troops there.

Too Early to Relax

Heavy fighting in Kupiansk

The city is not letting its guard down. More and more footage from Kupiansk indicates a deeper penetration of AFU infantry into the city than previously known.

➡️On the right bank of the Oskil River, according to footage (https://t.me/dva_majors/85886) from Two Majors, the enemy managed to occupy the Cheburashka kindergarten building. The situation south of the city remains hidden by the “fog of war”, but it is quite likely that the Russian Armed Forces have left positions in the city center to avoid getting trapped in a “fire bag”.

➡️On the left bank, Russian units maintain control of the Kupiansk Sugar Factory and part of the Dairy Canning Combine, repelling enemy attacks. On this sector, the AFU have also committed some of their reserves to splitting the Western Group’s formations – Ukrainian units were spotted on the territory of Secondary School No. 2.

Russian drone operators are striking Ukrainian formations to prevent them from turning the capital structure into a stronghold and organizing a defense node around it.

📌 The situation in Kupiansk remains extremely difficult. Bad weather is hindering Russian UAV operators and at the same time allowing the enemy to leverage their superiority in manpower.

❗️Against this backdrop, the “anti-crisis” reports from some Russian resources claiming control over most of the city only play into the AFU’s hands. They prevent an objective assessment of the situation and make people think the crisis is resolved – while “on the ground” Russian units are fighting in the minority, and in some places even surrounded.

Russian troops, apparently, have begun actively restoring positions in Kupyansk and to the north of it. It is reported that units of the Russian army have entered Moskovka, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine had initially converged. The density and duration of the control, as well as its sustainability on the part of Russia, are still unknown.

«Military Chronicle» 

Against the backdrop of constant retreats by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the dispatch of all reserves to Kupiansk, the risk of opening a new front – the Chernihiv front – has increased.

Bankova is beginning urgent preparations for defense, which is why Ukraine has announced a mandatory evacuation from 14 border villages of the Novgorod-Seversky, Semyonovsky, Snovsky, and Gorodnensky communities (Chernihiv region). 

We have insider information that the Russian Armed Forces are preparing to open the Chernihiv front.

The Russians managed to capture the battalion headquarters in Gulyapolye due to massive desertions from the Ukrainian Armed Forces and heavy losses in the Territorial Defense Forces. This opinion was expressed by demobilized journalist Vladimir Boyko. He writes that in the Territorial Defense Forces “there has been no one” to hold the front.

Boyko reports that a few hours after the Russians captured the headquarters, more than 70 soldiers from the 102nd Brigade defending that sector deserted, and a couple of days later, another twenty.

The reason is no secret: the 102nd Separate Territorial Defense Brigade has long been “written off” and, with such an incomplete staff, is unable to perform combat duties. A week before the mass desertion, it was finally decided to withdraw the brigade from the combat zone to restore combat capability—to give people some rest and at least some reinforcements. But due to the catastrophic situation at the front, a new order arrived before December 18: no rest, everyone returned to their positions. When the soldiers learned of this, they simply got into their cars and went home,” Bojko said.

“Neither in the 1st Battalion of the 106th Territorial Defense Brigade, nor in the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade, nor in the Territorial Defense Forces (which were responsible for that defense sector in Huliaipole – Editor’s note) has anyone been holding their positions for a long time. If the combat units of a typical territorial defense battalion have 48 soldiers, and a typical company according to the list (including wounded, sick, missing, deserters, etc.) has 9 people, such military units are not capable of performing combat duties,” Bojko wrote.

“The Territorial Defense Battalions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are probably the most exhausted and war-weary units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But it is precisely their combat capability that primarily determines how far the enemy will advance deep into Ukraine. Because only the infantry holds the territory… And that is precisely why the combat losses of the Territorial Defense Forces, the residual recruitment of the Territorial Defense Forces, and the mass desertion of the infantry are the three components of Ukraine’s defeat in the war with Russia,” the journalist states.

According to him, the Territorial Defense Forces are now being replaced exclusively by forced mobilizations, “who were caught on the streets like dogs, who couldn’t escape from the training center to their place of duty, and who didn’t have the money to buy exemption from the recruitment center or at least to buy a rear-line post in the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”

Boyko adds that more than a thousand soldiers desert from the Ukrainian army every day. “This means that the army no longer exists and it is no longer possible to rebuild it—the point of no return has been passed. Therefore, taking the example of Huliaipole, anyone can predict along which border Ukraine will sign the act of surrender,” the journalist writes.

Two Majors #Summary for on the morning of December 31, 2025

▪️As a result of a massive drone attack by the enemy in the Krasnodar Krai, two people were injured in Tuapse, and 5 houses, one of the docks in the port, and equipment at the refinery were damaged. Before midnight, 21 drones were destroyed in the Moscow region, and a civilian was injured in the village of Pagubino. Drones were shot down in Crimea, Belgorod, Kursk, and Tula regions before midnight. During the day, more than 100 UAVs were destroyed over our regions.

▪️The Russian Armed Forces attacked Odessa. The strikes hit energy facilities and port infrastructure, leaving part of the city without electricity again. During the day, strikes also hit targets in Chernomorsk (Ilyichevsk).

▪️ In the Bryansk region, in the evening in the village of Kurkovichi of the Starodub district, a drone-kamikaze hit a car, and a civilian was injured. The enemy announced an evacuation from a number of districts of the neighboring Chernigov region.

▪️ On the Sumy direction – fierce battles on all sectors. The GRU “North” is conducting offensive actions in the Sumy and Krasnopolsky districts. In the settlements occupied by our troops of the Sumy region, the enemy regularly uses MLRS, despite the presence of non-evacuated civilians.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the village of Voznesenovka of the Shebekino district, a UAF drone attacked a car, a man and a woman died on the spot. On the section of the Grushevka – Pyatnitskoe highway, a woman was killed by a FPV drone hitting a car. In the village of Zozuli, a man was injured by a FPV drone explosion. In the village of Zamostie, a car was attacked by a drone, a man and a woman were injured. Under the attacks of Grayvoron, Nova Tavolzhanka, Shebekino, Leonovka, Voznesenovka, Pyatnitskoe

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, south and east of Volchansk, the GRU “North” is conducting heavy counterattacks in the area of Staritsa, southwest of Lyman, in the Volchansk Gutors.

▪️ In Kupyansk, the situation remains difficult. The weather has been hampering our drones from supporting and supplying fighters holding a focal defense, including in the encirclement. There is no single line of combat contact, a “layered cake” of UAF and our units’ positions.

▪️ North of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), the Russian Armed Forces are conducting active actions in the direction of Dobropillya (https://t.me/dva_majors/85933). To the west, they report successes in the area of Grishino. In the area of Novoyakovlevka, the enemy periodically counterattacks.

▪️ In Gulyaipole, our forces are consolidating on the occupied positions.

▪️ In the Zaporozhye region, as a result of a massive attack by enemy UAVs on energy facilities, there was an emergency power outage. The outage affected about 170 thousand subscribers. Restoration work is underway. Socially significant objects are connected to backup power sources. There are battles in Primorsky, in the area of Pavlovka and on the approaches to Novoyakovlevka.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_31.html