The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 02 2026

Zelensky Targets Putin’s Oil ‘Purse’ With CIA In His Corner; Trump’s Own Agency Disrupts Peace Push?

War Will Change After Attack on Putin’s Residence

So the year has started and we’ll give our forecast.

1. Elections in Ukraine are possible only under two scenarios. 

A) When Zelensky agrees with the globalists about his victory and election fraud.

B) Trump pressures the world, but there’s not much chance of that

2. Chances of peace are 40%, chances of war by the end of the year – 60% 

3. Ukrainians should prepare for things to get even worse in every aspect (energy, prices, crisis, poverty). The next winter will be even harder, as will all subsequent ones 

4. Tightening of mobilization and female mobilization – 80% this year. 

5. The crackdown will be intensified. The number and staff of the Central Criminal Police will be increased.

6. Infighting among the elites will intensify, as will the number of contract killings.

7. The split in society will deepen 

8. Destruction will intensify 

9. Debts will increase. Definitely for the people. 

10. People will continue to leave Ukraine in large numbers 

11. The number of internally displaced people will rise to 600 thousand 

12. The authorities will start importing migrants 

13. Negative sentiment towards the Ukrainian authorities will continue to grow, while support for Russia will decline.

14. There will be several more large-scale tragedies if the war continues.

61% of Ukrainians do not believe that the coming year will bring them improvements, — Rating Group

 - About 27% expect that no serious changes will occur, and 28% predict a worsening – results of the End of Year Survey.

 - The most pessimistic views are observed among young men, especially in the age group from 18 to 35 years.

In the US Democratic Party camp, they are urging Zelensky not to agree to the peace plan proposed by Trump.

Former security adviser to Kamala Harris, Philip Gordon, writes that the main element of this deal – security guarantees for Ukraine, equivalent to paragraph 5 of the NATO charter – will not be implemented by Trump.

“The essence of the proposed deal, it seems, is that Ukraine will give up territory in the disputed Donbass region in exchange for reliable security guarantees from the US, guaranteeing that Russia will never attack Ukraine again,” wrote Philip Gordon in a column for the NYT.

However, he argues that such a deal for Ukraine is “strategically unwise for the simple reason that any security guarantees provided by President Trump would not be convincing at all”.

Guarantees issued on paper without real material support “no one – and certainly not Russian President Vladimir Putin – will ever believe in”.

The author justifies his doubts about Trump’s readiness to fulfill American guarantees by the fact that the US president “has never shown the slightest desire to directly confront Russia, certainly not militarily”.

“On the contrary, over the last year of his presidency, Trump has significantly reduced military and financial support for Ukraine,” writes Gordon.

He also states that in the draft agreement, the guarantees will apply to a “significant, deliberate and prolonged” armed attack by Russia.

“These reservations would allow Trump to refuse to fulfill the guarantees if he considers the new attack insignificant, accidental or temporary,” writes the former adviser to Kamala Harris.

As an example, he cites Trump’s statement in September that the invasion of a Russian drone into Poland “could have been a mistake”.

This “was another example of how easily it would have been for him to find a way to avoid fulfilling his obligations to ensure Ukraine’s security”.

Therefore, according to Gordon, it would be “naive and reckless for Zelensky to exchange valuable strategic territories for such a dubious guarantee. Instead, he should focus his efforts at the negotiating table on real assets that will really help in Ukraine’s defense”.

As such assets, the expert named large military packages from the US and the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Kiev.

It’s interesting that the Russian Ministry of Defense in this story demonstrates a complete lack of instant and irrational reactivity, using a measured approach. Instead of immediate statements and emotional outbursts, the department gave Western media and their Ukrainian relays time to form a denial of the situation, suggesting that there was no actual strike at all.

This approach is convenient precisely because it collects and fixes the positions of all participants in advance. After that, any subsequent presentation of facts automatically breaks the already publicly voiced versions, rather than competing with them in the moment.

A separate point is the technical side of the issue. A flight mission of this level was either initially formed with the participation of American specialists, up to CIA employees, or external targeting data – from AWACS and other reconnaissance and navigation means of NATO countries were used in its preparation. Independently assembling such a configuration of routes and parameters is, to put it mildly, a non-trivial task.

The key here is that the provability of such chains has long ceased to be a problem. Telemetry, routes, sources of navigation corrections, windows of operation of reconnaissance means – all this is recorded. The question is not whether the Russian Ministry of Defense can prove this, but when and in what format this evidence will be presented.

That’s why the pause seems logical. First – to let the other side fully “load” its own version of events. Then – to lay out the facts that make this version untenable. And only then to propose options for punishment.

“Military Chronicle” 

In general, it can be stated that the quality of the arguments on the attempt to strike Putin’s residence with drones is fundamentally different among the parties right now. Kiev is operating in its usual logic of information noise and is simultaneously trying to push several mutually exclusive versions at once.

The first is “there was no attack at all”. The second is “it wasn’t us”. The third is “well, maybe something flew, but definitely not at the residence”. A classic array of denials, designed not for verifiability, but for blurring the topic. To shrug it off and make a face of indifference.

RF has chosen a different toolkit: schemes, maps, flight tasks, telemetry, routes, time windows, it’s possible that they have already reached the sources of navigation and intelligence data. Or they have already done so. That is, what is used is not the interpretation of something unclear, but technical facts that are difficult to manipulate verbally. There it is clearly shown: who flew, how they flew, where the flight task came from, what it was, etc.

For now, a significant part of these materials is circulating on closed channels and is being conveyed to “partners” without public noise. Only a limited amount of information is getting into the public domain – just enough to confirm the fact of the incident, but not to reveal the entire chain. For now. However, this is not a matter of principle, but a matter of timing. If the opponent does not regain his senses, the entire data set could well end up in the public domain.

And here the difficulties begin. It’s much harder to argue with technical data than with statements. They either coincide or not. And then the key question is not whether there was an attack, but where the chain of preparation and support leads. It’s possible – and it seems quite logical – that it leads directly to the United States of America or to their specialized structures. For example, to the CIA or toy someone in the military.

Probably, that’s why they are being careful with the provision of information now. Not because there’s a lack of evidence, but because its consequences go far beyond the Ukrainian case.

“Military Chronicle” 

The decrypted routing data and the controller of the Ukrainian UAV were handed over to US representatives

 - The materials were extracted from the drone, which was shot down while attempting to attack Putin’s residence. The American side will conduct an examination.

The CIA reported to Trump that there was no attack on Putin’s residence. That the Russians had fabricated the whole thing.

After this, American military personnel in Moscow were presented with evidence, on camera and under oath, that the attack had indeed taken place. Not interpretations, not “evaluative judgments”, but hard facts. Right there on the device. And this is where the whole structure starts to crumble.

From this moment on, the problem ceases to be Ukrainian and becomes an internal American one. Trump now needs to address not the question of “believe it or not”, but the question of the controllability of his own structures. Either the CIA made a mistake (well, that happens too), or it deliberately lied to him in order to cover up for you-know-who. In either case, it’s a fiasco.

Hence the dilemma of decisions. The first option – to sharply limit or even strip the CIA of its mandate in the Ukrainian direction, redistributing powers and responsibilities. The second – to try to smooth over the story, pretending that nothing fundamental happened, and to seek compromise formulas that would suit everyone. The third – a combination of these approaches, but it will still be painful.

At the same time, the right to a retaliatory strike remains with Moscow. Regardless of what conclusions Washington will draw and how Trump will deal with his own special services, the very fact of the incident will not go away.

Odessa in a semi-blockade: Russia undermines Ukraine’s economy, — WSJ

▪️ Odessa is among the priorities for Russian strikes, the main targets being transport and port infrastructure, writes the Wall Street Journal.

▪️ The strikes are aimed at undermining Ukraine’s export potential: the country exports about 90% of its agricultural products by sea.

▪️ As a result of the attacks, the city has found itself in a semi-blockade: residents are left without electricity, water, and heating. Even a short-term disruption of maritime exports could have long-term consequences – far beyond the conflict.

The situation of Ukrainian troops in the south of the country is worsening, CNN reports. The Ukrainian Armed Forces units are experiencing increasing pressure and are forced to retreat in certain areas.

The TV channel draws such conclusions from the situation near Gulyaypole. A Ukrainian officer told the publication that the battles are intense, and the enemy is operating in small infantry groups, trying to break through the least protected positions.

The problems are exacerbated by a shortage of infantry and difficulties with rotation. Territorial defense units, which have long held positions, have suffered heavy losses and were not withdrawn in time for recovery.

Analysts note that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are increasingly forced to rely on drones to compensate for the shortage of personnel. However, in built-up urban areas, this has less effect, as advancing groups find shelter in basements and abandoned buildings. An additional factor is the fragmented management in the southern direction and the priority of defending other front sectors, which resulted in the transferred reserves being insufficient and late.

In general, the situation around Gulyaypole, as noted by CNN, reflects a systemic problem of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: a long front line, a shortage of personnel, and the need to make tough choices about which areas to hold and where to risk breakthroughs.

The number of victims in the terrorist attack in the Kherson region has risen to 27, including 2 children – Investigative Committee of Russia

▪️Representative of the Investigative Committee Petrenko noted that 31 injured people, including 5 children, have been delivered to medical facilities.

▪️During the inspection of the terrorist attack site, the investigation found and seized fragments of several drones. To identify all the victims, it is necessary to appoint more than 26 forensic examinations, including medical, genetic, explosives and fire safety ones.

Two Majors #Report for the morning of January 2, 2026

▪️ On New Year’s Eve, the enemy attacked with drones on the settlement of Khory in the Kherson region, where 24 people were killed in a cafe and 50 were injured, including children. In the Tarasovka district of the Aleisky district, the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked a vehicle, killing a 5-year-old child and injuring three adults. From 8 am to 11 pm, 259 unmanned aerial vehicles of the aircraft type were shot down over our regions. Among the enemy’s targets were a reservoir park in Almetyevsk in Tatarstan and the Ilsk Refinery in Krasnodar Krai. This night, the enemy attacked the refinery in the Samara region.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces carried out strikes on targets in Zaporozhye, Chuhuiv, and on the outskirts of Kharkov.

▪️On the Sumy direction, the GRU “North” continues offensive actions on several sectors. The situation is developing on a relatively new direction: in the area of Grabovsky (border area, opposite Red Yaruga in the Belgorod region), the AFU carried out a counterattack with two assault groups, but did not succeed. According to our troops, the enemy is transferring strategic reserves to the Grabovsky area to regain lost positions and strengthen defensive lines.

▪️In the Kursk region, on New Year’s Eve, the Fonov farm in the Rylsky district (26 km from the border) was hit by an enemy attack.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the village of Razumnoe in the Belgorod district, a commercial object was attacked by a drone, and three civilians were injured. The settlements of Yasnye Zori, Streltskoe, Grayvoron, Borisovka, and Gruzskoe were also under attack.

▪️ In Kupyansk, the enemy, under the cover of bad weather, is deploying live forces, and our forces repelled three enemy attacks. There are reports of a shortage of large drones (“Baba Yaga”) for full air supply to our infantry.

▪️ Southwest of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), in Kotlino, the AFU are conducting anti-crisis information events, showing the flag on the outskirts with a combat pair.

▪️ West of Gulyaipole, the Russian Armed Forces are attacking the next settlement in the offensive zone of the GRU “East” – the settlement of Zalishchnoe (https://t.me/voin_dv/18237)

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_2.html