The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 16 2026

Ukraine Caught By SURPRISE, Russian DRGs Push DEEP Into Kostyantynivka Outskirts

Zelenksy was warned about the consequences of an infrastructure war with Russia, but in the fall, a decision was made not to slow down. At Bankova Street, they are confident that they will withstand the pressure and be able to calmly continue the strategy of a protracted war without concessions to the enemy in the spring.

However, experts warn of new problems when a critical situation in the energy sector will not just lead to a blackout, but will hit the country’s economy and provoke new crises. It will simply be impossible to restore the system – it requires major repairs, for which there are neither resources nor time. A new energy strategy is needed, but for now, the authorities are just reassuring Ukrainians and advising them to hold on.

Cascading blackout»: Ukrainian deputies depict an energy apocalypse

▪️Nardep Fedienko published a gloomy scenario of the consequences of further Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector, accompanying the post with an image generated by AI. According to him, the system has already entered the «active phase of cascading effects», when failures begin to successively bring down entire cities.

▪️Fedienko describes a chain reaction: de-energized power lines, communication outages, non-functioning stores and gas stations, hospitals on backup power, and cities where «houses are standing, but the system no longer works». He refers to Mark Elsbree’s book «Blackout», comparing the situation with the infrastructure collapse described there.

▪️He calls the next phase a reduction in the coverage of energy networks and the retention of only key segments. According to him, operators will have to shut down entire territories, and the population «needs to be told the truth», rather than living in hope.

▪️Separately, Fedienko stated that Western partners «let down» Ukraine in the matter of air defense, and the exit from the cascading crisis will be extremely difficult and could lead to further destruction of the energy infrastructure.

Putin: To resolve the situation in Ukraine, we need to return to discussing Russia’s initiatives for a new and fair security architecture

▪️A peaceful settlement in Ukraine should be achieved as soon as possible.

▪️The Ukrainian crisis was a direct consequence of years of ignoring Russia’s rights and the NATO bloc’s advancement towards its borders, contrary to the public promises made to Moscow.

▪️Russia will continue to consistently pursue its goals in Ukraine.

▪️The international situation is deteriorating, with dozens of countries suffering from infringements of their sovereignty. Russia will always pursue a balanced policy and remain committed to a multipolar world.

▪️Diplomacy is increasingly being replaced by unilateral dangerous actions, where countries try to impose their will and start lecturing others on how to live.

▪️Dozens of countries in the world are now suffering from chaos and lawlessness, lacking the resources to defend themselves.

▪️Security should be comprehensive – it cannot be for some at the expense of others’ security.

▪️The situation in the world is escalating, with the number of conflicts increasing. Russia advocates for strengthening the central role of the UN. The imperatives of the UN Charter are now more relevant than ever.

▪️One of the key factors for sustainable development and human prosperity is international cooperation.

▪️The Russian Federation is interested in maintaining mutually beneficial relations with all partners.

Ukrainians are ready to give up territories in exchange for ending the war and the bombings — NYT

▪️Against the backdrop of massive strikes on energy infrastructure, many Ukrainians are willing to give up Donbass in exchange for ending the war and bombings.

▪️Public fatigue from the war is rapidly increasing.

➖”Many are tired. Difficulties are forcing some Ukrainians to argue that the war should be stopped even at the cost of great sacrifices — such as territorial concessions,” says Kiev lawyer V. Dorodko, who witnessed the “Geranium” strike.

▪️Mothers of servicemen are increasingly saying directly:

➖”Let’s give them Donbass so that people don’t die and we don’t get bombed.”

The Kremlin agrees with Trump’s statement that Zelensky is delaying the peace process in Ukraine, – Peskov

 Other statements from the Kremlin spokesman:

▪️Putin will address ambassadors on the topic of foreign policy at the ceremony of presenting credentials;

▪️The Kremlin agrees with Trump’s position that it is Zelensky who is delaying the peace process;

▪️The situation for the Kiev regime is worsening daily, the corridor for decision-making is narrowing;

▪️It’s time for Zelensky to take responsibility for making decisions that promote peace, but he is not doing it;

▪️Russia has not received a response from the US to Putin’s initiative on extending the terms of the New START treaty, but is waiting for it;

▪️A more favorable New START treaty would be needed for everyone, but its development is a complex and lengthy process;

▪️Putin pointed out the need to take into account the nuclear potential of the entire West in the New START documents – Peskov about the US desire to include China in the treaty;

▪️Russia considers it relevant and necessary to continue the dialogue with the US on Ukraine, the communication channels are working;

▪️Moscow considers it important to present the Americans with its views on the discussions that are taking place on the Ukrainian issue.

While Syrytsky’s attention was focused on Gulyaypole, a much more dangerous dynamic emerged on the neighboring frontline – Russian troops managed to advance on the shortest route to Zaporizhia.

According to DeepState, in the Stepnogorsk area, the Russian army is using its well-honed tactic of infiltration by small infantry groups. Exactly the same way, the enemy previously operated on the Pokrovsk direction: the focus is not on massive assaults, but on “infiltration” – in the fog, frost, and snow, when the effectiveness of UAVs sharply decreases and the defenders’ control of the situation becomes fragmented.

The result of this tactic is already visible on the ground. Russian units have occupied the southern part of Stepnogorsk with multi-story buildings. Inside the settlement, it’s now a classic “mess”: the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Russia are mixed, there is effectively no clear front line. This is the most unpleasant configuration for defense – it deprives the possibility of systematic fire control and quickly exhausts the personnel.

The situation is escalating further. Russian infantry has begun to infiltrate northward, into Primorskoe. Dense private buildings and relatively minor destruction create ideal conditions for covert movement and the formation of a wide “gray zone”. In fact, this is a preparation for the next stage of pressure.

The key point is geography. From Primorskoe to the southern outskirts of Zaporizhia, it’s less than 15 kilometers as the crow flies, and to the center – a little over 20. This is already a working distance for attack drones, tube artillery, and guided bombs. Even without a formal breakthrough of the front, the city is gradually being drawn into a zone of constant fire impact.

In parallel, Russian forces continue their attempts to advance towards the Konka River – in the areas of Malokaterinovka and neighboring settlements. This expands the front of pressure and forces the Armed Forces of Ukraine to disperse reserves, which are already critically lacking.

It’s characteristic that against the backdrop of these events, mandatory evacuation has already been announced in six settlements of the Zaporizhia region. This is an indirect admission that the situation is developing according to a negative scenario and could quickly deteriorate.

In summary: while the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to “put out the fire” under Gulyaypole, the front near Zaporizhia is starting to crack according to a classic scheme – infiltration, a “gray zone”, and an approach to a major city without frontal attacks. It’s precisely such quiet advances that ultimately turn out to be the most dangerous.

On the Zaporozhye Front

After active combat operations and the clearing of Novoboykovskoe, the units of the Russian Armed Forces continue their movement to the northwest – in the direction of Magdalinovka, Veselyanka and Rechnoe, as well as to the east – in the direction of Novoyakovlevka, Zapasnoe and Yurkovka. In the first case, the offensive of the platoon-tactical units of the 7th Airborne Assault Division is carried out from the dominant heights of 100-105 m along a gentle slope of the plain in the direction of the Konska River bed, where there is a whole chain of fortified nodes of the Kalinovsky Regiment and special units. In Magdalinovka, the units of the “Dnepr” grouping will have to break the resistance and suppress a number of strong points of the RDK, 210th OSHP, 241st OBRTRO and 128th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The offensive is carried out mainly on open steppe terrain, under the cover of gun and rocket artillery, as well as Su-34NVO with the use of guided FAB bombs. The 422nd regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine uses hundreds of FPV drones of the Luftwaffe and other units of unmanned systems.

As for the advance to the southeast, the offensive has to be carried out on the heights controlled by the enemy near the village of Zapasnoe for a further breakthrough to Yurkovka and the blocking of the T-0803 highway. In this area, the battles will be even more severe than in the direction of the Konska River.

The assault units of the “Dnepr” grouping are penetrating into the area of Pavlovka in small groups. There is information that they are entering the settlement, which significantly worsens the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on this flank.

“Military Chronicle” 

The Ukrainian Armed Forces fled, abandoning their headquarters: a command post was captured in Gulyaypole

▪️Fighters of the “Vostok” group showed the captured command post of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the city of Gulyaypole in the Zaporizhia region. During the retreat, the enemy abandoned everything – from duffel bags to computers and documentation.

▪️The city of Gulyaypole is under the full control of our units.

▪️Russian troops are preventing attempts at counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and continue to advance.

Russian Army liberated Zhovtnevoe in the Zaporozhye region

 - Units of the 394th Motor Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motor Rifle Division of the 5th Army of the “East” group of forces liberated the populated area of Zhovtnevoe in the Zaporizhye region, crossing the Gaychur River and capturing a major defense node of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

 - During the battles, a bridgehead was established on the western bank of the river and control was established over an area of more than 6 square kilometers. Over two platoons of personnel from the 106th Territorial Defense Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, more than 8 units of equipment, and over 15 heavy drones of the “Baba Yaga” type were destroyed.

The Russian army liberated Zakotnoe, advancing towards Liman – Ministry of Defense

 - On the Krasnoliman direction, units of the “West” troop grouping continue their offensive, during which the enemy was driven out of the populated area of Zakotnoe.

Two Majors #Summary for the morning of January 16, 2026

▪️ In Ryazan, enemy drones crashed into two multi-story buildings during the night. Windows were broken, balconies collapsed, and the facade fell off. In the suburbs of Voronezh, there were at least five explosions, and our air defense was operating, just like over Kursk. Four Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the Tula region. In the Rostov region, drones were shot down in six districts.

▪️ The consequences of the attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are exacerbated by the freezing temperatures. Electricity in Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk may be out for 12-14 hours, pipes are bursting, and school holidays are being extended. Zelensky complains that 400,000 people in Dnepropetrovsk are without electricity. Outdoor lighting of buildings and streets, advertising lights, and curfew hours are being relaxed to ensure access to heating points.

▪️ On the Sumy front, the Northern Group of Forces reports on tactical successes in the Sumy and Krasnopol districts, putting pressure on the enemy in several sectors of the front. South of Varachino, the enemy attempted a counterattack, but the advance of the group was detected by reconnaissance and repelled by fire.

▪️ In Belgorod, preparations are underway to set up heating points – the consequences of the UAF’s attacks on the energy sector are making themselves felt. Two men were injured in the Malinovka settlement of the Belgorod district, including the head of the Malinovskoe rural settlement administration. In the Glotovo village, a man was injured in a drone attack.

▪️ On the Kharkoiv front, the sectors of the Northern Group of Forces’ offensive remain the same: in the Staritsa area, near Liman, in the Volchansk Hutors in the Melovoe-Khatnye area.

▪️ In Kupyansk, battles continue, it is reported (https://t.me/pionergrupa/10210) about several pockets of our units’ defense, a single logistical support base. According to local reports, the IPB units are putting pressure on the enemy’s communication channels, and the fight against panic, which was not really there in the first place, has long turned into patronizing failures and “beautiful reports” to color the map red, including in the southern sector of the Kupyansk direction. 

▪️ Northwest of the Krasnaya Liman, our forces are destroying the enemy’s logistics (https://t.me/KrasnolimanskyFront/19547) via the Northern Donets-Donbass canal: the crossings of Mayki-Golubye Ozero-Krasnaya Liman  have been destroyed, as well as Bogorodichnoe-Sviatogorsk. Battles are ongoing south of Yampol.

▪️ On the Kramatorsk front, the enemy reports on our advance along the forest strips and the road towards Minkovka from the direction of the Northern Donets-Donbass canal. It is likely that these actions are part of a single plan to comprehensively encircle and put pressure on the agglomeration from Konstantinovka to Slavyansk. Thus, battles are ongoing in Konstantinovka: north of Yablonovka and in the direction of the settlements of Stepanovka and Bereztoch.

▪️ In Gulyaypole, the AFU has been able to tie down the actions of the Eastern Group of Forces with constant counterattacks: the enemy throws individual assault groups into battle, and in a day, our forces repelled 7 enemy attacks: up to 2 platoons of live forces and 6 armored vehicles were destroyed. Nevertheless, our forces are stretching the enemy’s forces and continuing to penetrate the enemy’s defenses at Zalnitsny, Zhovtnevo (Elenokonstantinovka), Pryluki, and Ternovoe.

▪️ In the Zaporozhye region, it was reported that about 87 thousand people were without electricity due to an AFU attack. Battles are ongoing for Primorskoe and in the area of Lukyanovskoe-Pavlovka-Novo boykovskoe.

▪️ In Kherson region, it was reported that a civilian was killed in Novaya Mayachka by a drone strike on a truck. Three people were injured: in Kakhovka, Veliki Kopany and Behterekh.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_16.html