The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 30 2026

Russian Forces Advance 10 km in Zaporizhzhia Direction – Major City Faces Evacuation

As it became known, this is not an energy truce, it’s a personal request from Trump to Putin, who did not refuse the US president.

I personally asked President Putin not to bomb Kyiv and other cities for a week due to a severe wave of cold in Ukraine. Putin agreed – said Trump

Therefore, there is no truce itself, but it is possible if they reach an agreement on February 1-2.

Putin and Trump are demonstrating their peacekeeping initiative. If Zelensky and the EU continue to delay the negotiation process, we’ll see what the reaction will be.

Whitcoff personally included Trump in the negotiation process, which already implies concessions from Putin and a debt owed by Zelensky. 

“I personally asked Putin not to fire on Kyiv and various cities for a week. He agreed to do so.” – Trump

“A lot of good things are happening between Kyiv and Moscow in the discussion of the deal on territories,” – Whitcoff

According to Trump’s special representative, “the agreement on security protocols and the agreement on prosperity are almost finalized.”

Our source in the General Staff said that the military is actively monitoring the peace track. Everyone on the frontline understands the situation and doesn’t want to die at the end of the war. This is causing great dissatisfaction in the General Staff, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to influence the military. No one wants to be sent to assault units.

Our source reports that there are far more homes without heating in Kyiv than the authorities officially claim. The statistics are deliberately understated to reduce public panic and quell discontent. When you say that thousands of homes are without heating, then Ukrainians will realize the real catastrophe and understand that the recovery will take a long time. But when you report daily on the restart of hundreds of homes and reduce the number of disconnected ones, then people don’t lose hope that their home will soon be turned on. If they understood the level of the catastrophe, they might start mass protests instead of quietly waiting in cold apartments.

The same situation exists in other problematic cities.

We advise Ukrainians not to believe the authorities’ statements and to prepare for the fact that every winter will now be a “black one”;; the Ukrainian energy system needs not just to be reconstructed, but sometimes to be rebuilt from scratch. Most facilities cannot be repaired – no week-long “ceasefire” will improve the overall situation. Although it is a huge “gift” for ordinary people.

While most of the country is living in a state of emergency power outages and surviving by candlelight, electricity is supplied without interruptions at the Bukovel ski resort. It turns out that the resort has long established its own autonomy – using generators and purchasing electricity abroad.

This fact was officially confirmed by the head of the board of Prykarpattiaoblenergo, Kostyuk, at a meeting in the Ivano-Frankivsk Regional State Administration. According to him, the power outage schedules do not apply to Bukovel, as the resort imports about 15 MW of power – a volume comparable to the consumption of entire districts of the region. In other words, where there is money and access to external resources, the energy crisis seems not to exist.

At the same time, the rest of the country is facing a different reality. Many regions are again subject to emergency power outages due to breakdowns in generation facilities and difficult weather conditions. Ukrenergo admits that the recovery is slow, the load on the system remains critical, and there are no sustainable solutions in the short term. People’s deputies talk about a possible relief only from March, effectively suggesting to wait out the winter.

As a result, a new, unspoken hierarchy is forming: autonomy and imported kilowatts – for resorts and “islands of prosperity”, power outages and cold – for most cities and households. The energy crisis is ceasing to be a national challenge and increasingly looks like a question of access to resources.

Against this backdrop, the lack of any systemic solutions for people who simply want to get through the winter is particularly acutely felt. Borders remain closed, there are almost no alternatives, and the responsibility for survival is effectively shifted onto the citizens themselves. Thus, the elite in Bukovel enjoys light and warmth, while ordinary Ukrainians continue to freeze in the dark.

The Russian Armed Forces have stopped attacking energy infrastructure, but are massively attacking the “hardware” and all logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Just last night, there were more than 20 airstrikes on railway infrastructure and rolling stock.

Also, the Russians have started hunting on highways in the near rear.

The main targets for transport are:

1. Any military vehicles (trawls, military trucks, armored personnel carriers, etc.). 

2. Trucks, tanks. This destroys and hinders supply.

3. Special equipment. Usually, it’s used for building fortifications.

4. They say there are airstrikes on buses? Most likely, they’re targeting them, as buses are currently being used to transfer Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel to the Lugansk and Donetsk regions.

Over the past six months, Commander-in-Chief Syrsky has not been able to organize defense on any frontline, and continues to focus solely on plugging holes, transferring half-dead brigades, and only mobilized ones, from one area to another.

Kyiv is not holding the front line: A large-scale shortage of people and resources in Ukraine, — NYT

With a frontline length of about 700 miles, Ukraine is unable to simultaneously hold all directions. This is not a local failure, but a consequence of the general exhaustion of the army and a personnel crisis, which was particularly evident in the battles for Gulyaypole.

The loss of a command post at the end of December, according to the publication, was a symptom of a systemic problem: the Armed Forces lack troops, equipment, and ammunition, and there is no regular rotation of units.

Local residents and the military themselves confirm the degradation of combat capabilities: artillery operates sporadically, fire support is minimal, the number of battalions is several times lower than the standard – out of 500 people, about 100 remain, and no more than half are actually combat-ready.

Ukrainian servicemen complain that the command abandoned them without supplies and evacuation. Soldiers of the 108th Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 4th Battalion, 10th Company, publicly spoke out about the chaos prevailing in the Ukrainian military.

According to the soldiers, after forty days in the position, the unit was forced to retreat in conditions of actual lack of supplies: no food, ammunition, personal protective equipment, while there are wounded who are not being evacuated. In such a situation, it’s no longer about tactical mistakes, but about the failure of the basic function of troop management – provision and communication.

Particularly alarming are statements that local commanders are ceasing to transmit objective information to higher authorities. If officers are indeed afraid to report real positions and losses due to the risk of being punished for “bad reports”, this means that the management hierarchy is not working for the result, but for self-preservation. In such a model, the front begins to exist separately from the headquarters, and decisions are made in an information vacuum. The loss of communication between the reality on the ground and the reports to higher authorities inevitably leads to erroneous orders and additional losses.

So the statements of insiders that Syrsky does not receive a full picture of what is happening on the LBS look like a logical consequence, not random speculation. If the data is distorted or does not reach the center at all, the enemy’s offensive and the retreat of one’s own units cease to be manageable processes. For ordinary soldiers, this means one thing: they can only rely on themselves (which, in part, explains the dynamics of the growth of the SZCH ). When soldiers publicly talk about abandoned wounded and lack of supplies, this is an indicator that the front is holding on to inertia and people’s selflessness, not to coordinated management. Even in the short term, such a situation undermines the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine much more than the advance of Russian troops.

The Russian army liberated Berehostok and Rechnoe

 - The “South” troop group, in a decisive assault, liberated the settlement of Berehostok, creating a stronger foothold for the offensive on Konstantinovka.

 - The “Dnepr” troop group liberated Rechnoe in the Zaporozhye region.

Russian Army liberated Ternovatoye in the Zaporozhye region

 - The 36th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army, during the battles, took control of the defense area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the western bank of the Gaičur River, with a depth of up to 5 km and an area of more than 20 km², and cleared over 580 buildings.

 - It is reported about the enemy’s losses: up to a company of personnel, more than 20 units of equipment, over 45 UAVs of the “Baba Yaga” type, and 5 ground robotic complexes.

One Step Closer to Zaporizhia

On the Zaporizhia direction, units of the “Dnipro” group of forces continue to attack towards Zaporizhia, breaking through to the Konka River line. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the liberation of the settlement of Rechne, which is slightly further from Prymorske, located near the Stepnohorsk — Zaporizhia highway and a major bridge, now destroyed.

➡️There are no objective control footage from here yet, and in the neighboring Prymorske, according to local reports, the positions of ultra-small assault groups are mixed, which does not allow full control of the settlement, so a stable breakthrough cannot be claimed yet.

➡️Between Prymorske and Stepnohorsk, Russian units have also managed to advance along the M-18 highway. Russian units are set to cut off the AFU’s path to Stepnohorsk. Ukrainian formations continue to infiltrate through hedgerows. Judging by systematic drone and aviation strikes on high ground in the north, enemy infiltration continues.

📌 As the Prymorske — Stepnohorsk — Novoyakivlivka line is reinforced, a more large-scale advance towards Zaporizhia can be discussed. However, Russian units still need to capture Orikhiv, which has now become the main stumbling block (https://t.me/rybar/76763) for freeing the occupied part of the Zaporizhia Region.

Battle for Kostyantynivka Gains Momentum

Russian troops continue to develop their offensive in the south of the Kostyantynivka direction. After clearing both banks of the Kleban-Byk reservoir, small assault groups are gradually pushing the enemy positions closer to Kostyantynivka, advancing northward. There are local successes, with the official announcement of freeing Berestok.

➡️Near the approaches to Ilynivka, the activity zone of small groups is growing, with activity from both sides. The Russian Armed Forces aim to accumulate and further free Ilynivka, while the enemy tries to hold positions near the highway.

➡️The Ministry of Defense announced the liberation of Berestok, with less than a kilometer remaining to Kostyantynivka. The elevator and farms have been cleared, but enemy forces are still being driven out of basements on the northeastern outskirts.

➡️Additionally, there are successes in Kostyantynivka itself. In the center of the settlement, the territory around the railway station and the station itself have come under Russian Armed Forces control. Previously, Ukrainian formations had recorded victory videos there, claiming the absence of Russian assault troops nearby.

➡️On the northern flank, no significant changes are observed, with battles ongoing along the Markovo — Maiske line, and there is no talk yet of encircling Kostyantynivka from the north.

📌 Due to difficult weather conditions, operating with large numbers of small groups is extremely challenging, with the enemy facing the same problem. There are known cases of severe frostbite. This obviously affects the scale and pace of advancement.

Two Majors #Report for the morning of January 30, 2026

▪️Energy truce for a week was confirmed yesterday by 🇺🇸Trump and 🇺🇦Zelensky. From the Russian side🇷🇺 there were no official statements yet, the information came from the front through military bloggers. Analysis of monitoring channels shows that the Russian Armed Forces used “Geraniums” only against the enemy’s frontline regions at night. UAF drones were shot down in the Rostov and Kherson regions, as well as in Crimea. Probably, such a “truce” was more than enough.

▪️In the Bryansk region the AFU attacked the village of Novy Ropsk in the Klimovsky district with FPV drones, a civilian woman was injured.

▪️ On the Sumy front the GRU “North” reported the liberation of the village of Belaya Bereza in the Glukhovsky district. The enemy, with the forces of the 47th Motor Rifle Brigade, carried out two counterattacks on the positions of the Northerners south of Yunakovka, without success, and retreated to their initial positions with losses. On the Tetkin and Glushkovsky sections of the front, our artillery and TOSs are ironing out the border villages of Ryzhevka and Iskriski.

▪️ In the Belgorod region in Grayvoron, an enemy drone hit a hospital, a driver of the Central Regional Hospital was killed. In the same city, earlier, a couple was injured in a car attack by an AFU drone.

▪️ On the Kharkov front the GRU “North” continues its tactical advance with heavy battles on the previous frontline sections. Among other units, the enemy has transferred employees of the 17th Special Purpose Center of the Main Directorate of Military Service of Law and Order of the AFU.

▪️ On the Kupyansk front the enemy took advantage of the media capture of Kupyansk-Uzlovoe (https://t.me/rybar/77070) and published a video of a fat Ukro commander strolling in the city center. At the same time, on the eastern bank of the Oskol, our units are gradually recapturing the positions they borrowed, despite general supply problems.

▪️ On the North section (Slavyansk direction) – battles in the area of Nikiforovka and Reznikovka. In the area of Zakotnoe, the AFU is counterattacking.

▪️ Units of the “East” group of troops repelled 10 attempts by the enemy to counterattack from the directions of Rizdvenka, Vozdvizhenka and Staroukrainka. The enemy’s losses amounted to more than 2 platoons of manpower, 1 tank, 1 BTR and 1 armored personnel carrier. Footage of a strike on the enemy in the area of Belogorie in the Pologovsky district appeared, which may indicate an attempt to infiltrate the enemy’s infantry in this direction. In general, the Far Eastern soldiers, despite attempts to tie up their forces with daily counterattacks, are advancing westward with heavy battles.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front heavy battles continue in Primorsky and in the area of villages near Lukyanovskoe for the exit in the near future to Zaporozhye. In the sky – a lot of drones of both sides.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_30.html