Sea ice and jet streams: New Scientist jumps the climate gun – NetZeroWatch
The hunt for anything that might be of use to support the alarmist climate biases of the usual suspects never stops.
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This week’s prize for jumping the climate gun goes to New Scientist, twice – says Dr David Whitehouse @ NetZeroWatch.
Firstly, it tells us that low sea ice levels in Antarctica signal a permanent shift. This, they say, because for the second year in a row Antarctic sea ice has reached near-record low levels, “initiating concern that climate change has initiated a ‘regime shift’ in the amount of ice that forms in the Southern Ocean each year.”
Sorry New Scientist, but two years does not a trend make.
Looking at the data, 2023 was indeed a record low and 2024 slightly above that, but if you look at previous years, especially the 2011–2020 average, you will see no trend, just confirmation that 2023 and 2024 are outliers. Much more data than the past two years will be required to signal a permanent regime change.
Their second example of spurious trend-setting concerns the questions of if there is a long-term poleward shift in the jet stream, and if it might be the result of global warming.
The jet stream is powered by the Earth’s rotation and by temperature differences between the tropics and higher latitudes. Its poleward drift is a prediction of some climate models.
According to New Scientist, a new analysis indicates that the Pacific Jet Stream has started its poleward drift, moving at 30–80 km a decade.
The problem with this research, which is clearly stated in the paper, is that the Jet Stream’s natural bounds of variability are not known, and despite the data going back several decades, if the past ten years are excluded from the analysis then no poleward trend is seen.
The researchers say it’s going to take to the end of this century to be sure of any systematic Pacific Jet Stream drift.
Full article here.
Source: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2024/09/29/sea-ice-and-jet-streams-new-scientist-jumps-the-climate-gun-netzerowatch/
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