Global warming is happening, but not statistically ‘surging,’ new study finds

Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy

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Researchers find a ‘statistically steady rate’ of warming, which on the face of it wouldn’t rule out natural variation. They say ‘the magnitude of the acceleration is either statistically too small, or there isn’t enough data yet to robustly detect it’. Not what promoters of an urgent climate crisis would want to hear in the run-up to COP29.
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Given the number of record-setting heat waves around the world in recent years, an international team of researchers, including a Lancaster University statistician, investigated if the rate of global warming has increased significantly, or “surged,” over the last half century at statistically detectable rates, says Phys.org.

The new study, published on October 14 in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, and led by scientists at UC Santa Cruz in the U.S., confirms the broad consensus that the planet is getting warmer, but at a statistically steady rate—not at a sufficiently accelerated rate that could be statistically defined as a surge.

Recent years have seen record-breaking temperatures and heat waves globally: Data show 2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850—by a wide margin—and that the 10 warmest years in the historical record have all occurred in the past decade (2014–2023).

Global average surface temperature, by NOAA
These record temperatures have spurred discussion and debate about whether the rate of global warming has increased, with some arguing that it has accelerated over the past 15 years. However, the team’s findings demonstrate a lack of statistical evidence for an increased warming rate that could be defined as a surge.

“We’ve had these record-breaking temperatures recently. But that’s not necessarily inconsistent with steadily increasing global warming,” said lead author Claudie Beaulieu, Professor of ocean sciences at UC Santa Cruz. [Talkshop comment – historical data is limited].

“Of course, it is still possible that an acceleration in global warming is occurring. But we found that the magnitude of the acceleration is either statistically too small, or there isn’t enough data yet to robustly detect it.”
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The research team performed a rigorous analysis of sets of global surface-temperature averages from the four main agencies that track the average temperature of Earth’s surface, including NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA)—dating back to 1850.

Since that year, Earth’s temperature has risen by 0.11-degree Fahrenheit per decade, according to NOAA.

Full article here.