Study Finds ‘Extreme Weather’ Database Exaggerates Global Disaster Trends
As this article says: ‘Disasters don’t count if you don’t count them.’ Rise in reports of disasters does not equate to a rise in the events, if frequency of reporting has improved. But weather attribution people can make claims that sound as if things are getting worse, without fear of being shown actual contradictory historical data, if it was never collected.
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According to its publishers, a dataset called EM-DAT, which stands for Emergency Events Database, so it’s not even an acronym, lists “data on the occurrence and impacts of over 26,000 mass disasters worldwide from 1900 to the present day” – says Climate Change Dispatch.
Which makes it perfect for studying long-term trends. And what’s even better, for the climate change crowd anyway, is that, as the authors of a 2024 study noted, “There are very strong upward trends in the number of reported disasters.”
But as the same authors noted in the very next sentence, “However, we show that these trends are strongly biased by progressively improving reporting.” Simply put, before 2000, reporting of small disasters that caused fewer than 100 deaths was hit-and-miss.
So, historically, the record of giant disasters that killed hundreds or more persons is reasonably complete, but not the record of small ones.
And the authors of the recent study argue that once they adjust for the effect of underreporting, the trends in disaster-related mortality go away.
The paper, “Incompleteness of natural disaster data and its implications on the interpretation of trends,” by a group of scientists in Sweden, began by noting that they are not the first to point out the problem.
The weird thing is that many authors who have pointed out this massive flaw have then gone ahead and used the data anyway, as though it [the flaw] did not exist, or at least they had not noticed it.
. . .
As the authors argue, it’s not because the events didn’t happen, but instead it is because they weren’t recorded.
Full article here.
Source: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2025/08/29/study-finds-extreme-weather-database-exaggerates-global-disaster-trends/
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