Climate Science’s Biggest Shift In Decades: RCP8.5 Is Officially Dead
This scenario was based on the notion of rampant coal burning worldwide for many decades ahead. But the ‘committee behind IPCC scenarios’ (how does that work?) has officially eliminated RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 as implausible. It had been hanging on grimly for several years already in numerous research papers and so-called climate attribution studies. Of course they’re still pushing the idea that ’emissions’ are a cause, not an effect, of slightly warmer weather, contrary to historical data.
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The framework driving IPCC climate modeling has officially ditched the extreme scenarios as implausible, writes Roger Pielke Jr. (via Climate Dispatch).
. . .
In a paper released earlier this month, Van Vuuren et al. (VVetal26) introduce a new set of seven scenarios.
The authors write of the obsolete high-end emissions scenarios:
“For the 21st century, this range will be smaller than assessed before: on the high-end of the range, the CMIP6 high emission levels (quantified by SSP5-8.5) have become implausible, based on trends in the costs of renewables, the emergence of climate policy and recent emission trends.”
Read that again — the high-end scenarios are implausible.
I disagree that the implausibility of the high-end scenarios resulted from the falling costs of renewables or the emergence of climate policy, but that is a debate for another day.
What matters today is that the group with official responsibility for developing climate scenarios for the IPCC and broader research community has now admitted that the scenarios that have dominated climate research, assessment, and policy during the past two cycles of the IPCC assessment process are implausible: They describe impossible futures.
Tens of thousands of research papers have been — and continue to be — published using these scenarios, and a similar number of media headlines have amplified their findings, and governments and international organizations have built these implausible scenarios into policy and regulation.
We now know that all of this is built on a foundation of sand.
Full article here.
Source: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2026/05/01/climate-sciences-biggest-shift-in-decades-rcp8-5-is-officially-dead/
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