Tropical timings: origins of Earth’s 2.4 million year eccentricity ‘grand cycle’
There are numerous research papers and articles discussing and referring to a 2.4 million year climate cycle, often linked to Earth’s long-term eccentricity, e.g. see here for a few examples (credit: Google Scholar search).
We merge two lines of evidence:
— 3 long eccentricity cycles (LEC) = 13 short ones (SEC) – for details, see here and here.
— 2 LEC is the key sub-harmonic in José Rial’s 1999 research article: Pacemaking the Ice Ages by Frequency Modulation of Earth’s Orbital Eccentricity, which examines evidence in oxygen isotope time series records.
The beat period of 3 and 2 LEC is 6 LEC (3*2/(3-2)= 6).
6 LEC = 2.474~ myr (2484*996 tropical years (TY) in our calculation). This equates to the much-publicised 2.4 myr cycle proposed in various papers, e.g. Zhang et al (2025):
100-kyr climate cycles caused by 2.4-Myr eccentricity-modulated carbon cycles.
The geometric mean of 2 and 3 LEC is 1010032.4 TY.
The geometric mean of 2 and 3 obliquities is 101003.24 TY, i.e. 10 times less, because 10 obliquities = 1 LEC according to our tropical timings series of posts.
This gives a link to the widely discussed ‘100-kyr’ period, sometimes called The 100,000-year problem. Zhang et al (link above) say: ‘unlike inclination’s singular ~100-kyr peak, glacial cycles exhibit variable ~80–120 kyr periodicities.’ That looks a lot like a rounded-down version of 2-3 obliquities (~82-124 kyr). The variability would be around a central period (the geometric mean) of just over 100 kyr, as described.
In a follow-up post we’ll look in more detail at the José Rial (1999) research article, with plenty of analysis of the data centred around the 2 LEC sub-harmonic as it’s described there, but with an extra factor not mentioned in this post.
Source: https://talkshop.blog/2026/08/26/tropical-timings-origins-of-earths-2-4-million-year-eccentricity-grand-cycle/
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