Brandon Aiyuk to Baltimore?

Last week, Brandon Aiyuk once again made headlines as he requested a trade from the San Francisco 49ers. And, of course, that led to members of the 31 other fanbases clamoring for their squads to trade for the disgruntled wide receiver. Naturally, much of the Flock spoke up, dreaming about how a Jackson-Aiyuk pairing could dice up opposing defenses.

But that begs the question, “Should the Ravens bring Brandon Aiyuk to Baltimore?”

My initial reaction to that was a hard no. That’s not a slight against Aiyuk at all; he’s a great player that’s found a way to stand out in a crowded offense jam-packed with Pro Bowlers. At the end of the day, though, the NFL is a salary cap league and ultimately a business. You can’t always get what you want, and I started to feel like he fell into the category of a “nice to have” for the Ravens.

Well…

Then I reconsidered. If you can find a way to get 75 catches in the NFL, you’re probably a pretty good player. If you can get 75 catches San Francisco’s offense, though, you’re pretty darn special. That’s exactly what Aiyuk did in 2023, racking up 1,342 yards at a clip of 17.9 (!!!) per reception and scoring 7 times. If he can do that while surrounded by Christian McCaffery, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel, he can at the very least match that production in Baltimore, catching passes from a 2-time MVP.

I’m not denying that Brandon Aiyuk would be great in purple and black. But that wasn’t my original question. Does it make sense for the front office to pursue him? Should they bring in the 2023 All Pro?

My answer: no. Here are three reasons why the Ravens shouldn’t go after Aiyuk.

1. Risk

Despite being the great player that he is, Brandon Aiyuk carries a lot of risk with him, and it’s the type of risk this team has traditionally avoided. Let’s start with money. Aiyuk carries a cap hit of just over $14M. Since the 49ers exercised his fifth-year option, the entirety of his base salary is guaranteed, which is a tough pill to swallow for any team… especially for the Ravens. Not counting the addition of Eddie Jackson (whose contract value has yet to be reported), the Ravens have just over $6M of cap space remaining according to Spotrac. That’s extremely tight, good for the fourth smallest in the league, and that number will likely be closer to $3M when Jackson’s cap number is made available. The front office will probably want to maintain around $5M in space to leave the door open for in-season acquisitions, so some serious cap acrobatics would be required to facilitate the Aiyuk trade. DeCosta would need to free up somewhere around $16M through contract restructures, which is no small task.

Additionally, the 49ers seem to want a lot for the star wideout in a trade. New England reportedly offered them the 34th overall pick in the 2024 Draft in exchange for Aiyuk, but San Francisco declined. Pat McAfee recently reported that at least five teams were in the running for him before the Draft and may still be interested, which obviously drives up the price. In addition to the Patriots, the Commanders, Steelers, and Packers have all been rumored to be in the market for Aiyuk, and they (particularly the first three) will likely have higher picks in the ’25 Draft than Baltimore.

Did I mention that Aiyuk’s in the final year of his contract? Even if the Ravens brought him in, there’s a very high chance that they wouldn’t be able to retain him beyond 2024. The going rate for top-tier receivers is around $30M/year (which is an insane number, by the way), and you better believe that’s what he wants – if not more. Baltimore is projected to be over the cap in 2025 (although only by ~$1M), and I can’t believe that EDC would be willing to stomach that type of contract at the expense of extending in-house talent. And there’s no way he’d be willing to fork over significant future assets for one year of Aiyuk; that’s just not how the Ravens operate, and nor is it the way they should.

2. Development

I’m a huge fan of developing in-house talent, but players can’t develop without reps. And players can’t get reps if there are too many guys ahead of them on the depth chart. I’m one of the people that still believes that Rashod Bateman can be a great wide receiver in this league. He has all the physical tools and is a good route-runner, but he just never seems to be on the same page as Lamar.

But how can the two get on the same page if they don’t get enough reps?

The same goes for rookie Tez Walker. Many say the UNC product would be a first-round pick in next year’s Draft, but he can’t develop to that point if he never sees the field. He, too, has a lot of great physical tools. However, the former Tar Heel definitely needs a bit of development if he wants to round into a good NFL wide receiver… and, again, he can’t develop of he can’t get enough reps, especially in games.

It’s much more cost-effective for the Ravens to rely on development, too. This year, Flowers, Bateman, and Walker have a combined cap hit of just $4.82M… compared to the $14.1M hit carried by Aiyuk. If the Ravens can develop those three young guys into an effective trio while costs are low, they free up money to shore up needs elsewhere or extend a guy like Brandon Stephens.

The acquisition of Aiyuk would directly block the growth of Bateman and Walker, which is far from ideal considering the current market for pass-catchers.

3. Fit

And, finally, my last point: fit. The Ravens aren’t exactly a pass-happy offense (although Todd Monken’s begun to achieve the balance Greg Roman never could), and, coming for the 49ers, Brandon Aiyuk wants targets… and he wants a lot of them. While Lamar did attempt more passes than Brock Purdy in 2023 (457 vs. 444), he was still only 17th in the league in that category. Plus, the Ravens figure to be more run-heavy this season to get the most out of Derrick Henry, with Monken going as far as to say that he wants the King to have 300 carries in 2024. I’m not sure if that’s the type of situation that Aiyuk wants to be in, and this contract drama has made it clear to me that, if he’s unhappy, he’ll let the world know.

That brings me to the other type of fit: cultural. The Ravens are very specific about the type of guys they want in the locker room and don’t want to have any more drama than necessary. The way Aiyuk has navigated his contract situation is decidedly anti-Ravens, which is why I strongly doubt the front office should – or will, for that matter – make a run at him.

Just blessing the timeline with some of Brandon Aiyuk’s filthy routes over the years#49ers pic.twitter.com/XFtQyaSMLO

— Coach Yac (@Coach_Yac) December 10, 2022

I won’t deny that Aiyuk could take this offense to another level, but bringing him in probably isn’t the best move the Ravens could make right now. There’s no guarantee that he would want to return beyond 2024 or that the team could even bring him back, so sacrificing the assets required to acquire him really isn’t worth it.

Yeah, it’s fun to dream about what a Lamar-Aiyuk pairing could do… but it just doesn’t make sense to pursue it.

I’m content to watch the Steelers overpay for him!

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