Fantasy Preview: Derrick Henry

Welcome to Ravens Fantasy Preview! This week, I’m doing a deep dive into five Ravens, one per day, and examining the impact they might have on the 2024 fantasy football season in PPR leagues.

Today, we’ll start with one of the biggest offseason additions from around the NFL: Derrick Henry. While the King is no longer the fantasy beast he once was, he’s still a serviceable starting running back week in and week out. Now that he’s running behind good blockers and is in a good offense, I suspect we’ll see a jump in his fantasy scoring this season.

Let’s take a look at how he fared in 2023 and where he might be drafted in ’24.

Player Breakdown: Derrick Henry, RB, BAL

2024 Rank (ESPN): 19 overall, RB9

2023 Output: 246.66 PPR Points (14.5 per game)

2023 Stats: 280 carries, 1167 yards, 12 TDs – 28 receptions, 214 yards, 0 TDs

While it wasn’t the most exciting year, Henry put together a solid 2023. I drafted him in the second round last year to be my starting running back, and he played consistently enough to stay in my lineup every week. He again finished within the starting tier of all RBs, eighth in that position group, and is predicted to do so again in 2024.

However, I have to say that #22 was a slight letdown for me last year. Before the draft, Henry was projected to go in the late first or early second round, and I highlighted him as a guy who brought really great value at that price point. So, I traded my first round pick for a second and a third, leaving me without a pick in the top 10 but 4 selections in the next 20. Henry was the first player I drafted, and I expected him to be a top-5 back for fantasy purposes in 2023. However, the King had a bit of a down year, at least by his standards, and wasn’t the dominant runner I’d thought he’d be. He was still solid, don’t get me wrong, but he finished as just a bottom-end RB1 in my 10-team league.

According to Fantasy Pros, Henry’s ADP is currently sitting at #24 overall, a decent fall from last year. That means that, in 10-team leagues, you can get him in the middle of the third round, and managers in 12-team formats can expect him to be on the board at the end of the second round.

I approach my draft picks by asking myself this question: Do I anticipate Derrick Henry being the 24^th best player in fantasy football this season?

And I have to say, no, I don’t.

I expect him to be far better.

There’s been so much momentum building for Henry this offseason, and I’m not really sure why analysts around the league don’t believe he’ll return to the dominant form he showcased just a couple of years ago. He hasn’t lost any athleticism, as evidenced by his yearly insane workout video. Despite being 30 years old, he’s content to let his play on the field speak for itself. Roquan Smith has chimed in on the issue, saying that there’s “a lot of tread left on that tire.”

Okay, so that makes the case for Henry to maintain his 2023 level of production. What makes me think he’ll surpass it?

First of all, in 2023, Derrick Henry faced the most stacked boxes of any running back in the entire NFL. Lamar Jackson, though, is the best passer in the league when facing those same looks… meaning that defenses can’t afford to load up at the line of scrimmage. Speaking of the line of scrimmage, the Ravens’ offensive line is far, far better than that of the Titans in ’23. Tennessee had arguably the worst o-line of any team last season, and Henry averaged just 2.0 yards before contact per attempt. While Baltimore’s retooled line likely won’t be as strong as it was last year, it’s still a solid unit. More space for the King to run = more yards = more fantasy points, just want managers want to hear.

Oh, did I mention touchdowns yet? If we learned anything from last season, when the Ravens get inside the opponent’s 10-yard line, Todd Monken wants to pound the rock. Gus Edwards surprisingly punched it in more times than Henry last year, and it’s pretty easy to see why. Of The Bus’s 13 touchdown runs in 2023, eight came from within the 2-yard line, and 11 came from within the three. His longest scoring play was seven yards. On the other hand, just five of Henry’s 12 scores came from runs inside the 3-yard line. If the Ravens are close to the goal line, you better believe they’re giving it to #22. Plus, Henry will have more opportunities to score because Baltimore just has a better offense than Tennessee, so they’ll naturally take more trips to the red zone.

All of this spells a big year for the King – one that will see him outperform his ADP. Pick him if you can or try to buy low in a trade after the draft. I predict Henry will again be a top-5 fantasy running back in 2024… and you don’t have to pay a top-5 positional price to get him.

Thanks for tuning into Day 1 of Ravens Fantasy Preview! Come back tomorrow for a deep dive into a stalwart of this offense over the past five seasons: Mark Andrews.

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