A Chess Match Rematch at Arrowhead

Defense

Discipline and Patience Over the Middle

The Ravens defense did their jobs in the AFC Championship Game. After giving up touchdowns on the Chiefs’ first two drives, the clamps came on. The defensive line controlled the point of attack and Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, and Patrick Queen combined for 35 total tackles to limit Mahomes and Co. to a measly 4.4 yards per play.

That’s a winning formula against a largely similar Chiefs offense that relies on superior scheming from Andy Reid and unflappable quarterback play from Patrick Mahomes. They use motion to identify and break defensive coverages while opening up space in the run game. With Zach Orr carrying over much of Mike Macdonald’s scheme – simulated pressures, disguised coverages, weaponizing his playmakers – the Ravens will have to be disciplined before and at the snap to avoid giving away their intentions.

Reid has a particular ability to take a defense’s strengths and turn them into weaknesses. He will target the aggressiveness of Smith, Hamilton, and especially Trenton Simpson. The second-year linebacker looked sharp throughout the preseason, but he’ll face the toughest test of his football career on Thursday. His athleticism can lead to splash plays, but he has to stay focused on his assignments to avoid getting caught out of position.

The Chiefs will target the middle of the field with hi-lo, dagger, and mesh concepts to force Simpson to sift through traffic. He’ll have to stay patient and trust his reads as well as his teammates to keep the Chiefs from breaking off big gains over the middle.

The Ravens’ use of their safeties will also be crucial to controlling the middle of the field. Sending Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton to buzz the middle from two-high looks will give Mahomes some traffic of his own to sort through while providing some backup for Simpson if he gets sucked in by an underneath route.

Make Them Be Perfect

Another key element of the Ravens’ performance against the Chiefs in January was their ability to take away the deep ball. Mahomes only completed one pass over 20 yards with a 5.9 average depth of target according to Pro Football Focus, taking a lot of underneath passes to set up third-and-longs (see next point).

That’s become a consistent theme for the Chiefs in the last few seasons. Many teams have started to deploy two high safeties against Mahomes, limiting him to just two deep touchdown passes since 2022, per NFL Pro. That will likely mean some snaps for Eddie Jackson so Orr can use Hamilton around the line of scrimmage. Jackson will need to slide into a Baltimore secondary that communicated very well on the back end last season to avoid broken coverages and big plays downfield. The Ravens’ cornerbacks should also press Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy to disrupt their timing and target the weaknesses in their game.

That will force the Chiefs to dink and dunk their way down the field, taking underneath passes and using all four downs to move the chains. The Ravens tackled well in the AFC Championship Game, limiting the damage after the catch and holding the hard-running Isaiah Pacheco to just 2.8 yards per carry. They’ll need a repeat performance on Thursday, a tough ask for the first game of the regular season. Much of the starting defense didn’t play a snap in the preseason, and they’ll immediately be faced with bringing down Pacheco and Travis Kelce consistently. Baltimore’s defenders will have to be technically sound in their tackling by wrapping up and waiting for help to arrive rather than flying downhill looking for big hits. 

Mix and Match Blitzes

If the Ravens can take care of the first two keys, they’ll put themselves in a strong position on third down. In 2023, the Chiefs faced the third-longest average distance on third down at 7.11 yards, which showed up in the AFC Championship Game, per Sumer Sports.  Baltimore’s defensive discipline and sharp tackling consistently forced the Chiefs into third-and-longs, allowing Mike Macdonald to open up his bag of blitzes. Judging from Orr’s play calling in training camp and the preseason, he’ll be putting his own spin on the Ravens’ pressure packages.

That will include the simulated pressures with which Macdonald found so much success, sending an extra linebacker or defensive back while dropping a defensive lineman into coverage. Orr should use simulated pressures on early downs to delay Mahomes’ processing and keep numbers in coverage to limit big gains before opening up with bigger blitzes on third down to force the ball out quick and tackle before the sticks.

But Orr will need to pair his coverages with his blitzes to avoid the intermediate gains that plagued the Ravens in January. According to PFF, Mahomes completed six of his eight passes that were 10-19 yards downfield for 93 yards, almost 40% of his passing output in the game. Even against the blitz, Mahomes was able to identify 1-on-1 matchups and layer throws over coverage drops.

The Ravens wisely avoided Cover 0 blitzes altogether in January, despite using it 7.4% of the time during the regular season, per NFL Pro. Orr should follow suit on Thursday, keeping Williams and Jackson in coverage over the top when blitzing to limit those intermediate completions and prevent them from becoming breakaways.

Offense 

Help the OL

The Ravens posted their first depth chart of the season, with Ronnie Stanley, Andrew Vorhees, Tyler Linderbaum, Daniel Faalele, and Patrick Mekari starting, left to right.

At first glance, it doesn’t inspire much confidence. Mekari over Roger Rosengarten is the safe pick, going with the veteran’s experience over the rookie’s upside. But Vorhees is virtually untested at the NFL level, as is Faalele at his new right guard job.

A matchup with Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive array of blitzes is a tall task for the two youngsters, who will spend the game taking turns against Chris Jones. Linderbaum will help out with plenty of double-teams, but that will leave the tackles exposed against edge rushers and any additional blitzers. The Chiefs’ 34.9% blitz rate was 6th highest in the NFL last year, and they led the league with an 8.8 sack percentage according to NFL Pro.

Todd Monken may have the long-term goal of fielding a five-man pass protection unit, but he shouldn’t throw his O-line into the fire in Week 1. At least one of Patrick Ricard and Isaiah Likely should be on the field most of the time. Ricard can stay in against the Chiefs’ heavier fronts, while Likely can isolate in winnable matchups against linebackers.

Monken should also get Jackson’s legs involved in the passing and running game, something he used to successfully counter the Texans’ blitz tactics in the Divisional Round last year. Jackson had four designed rushes for 52 yards, per PFF, which in turn opened up more room for the Ravens’ RBs. In the AFC title game, Jackson had just two designed rushes for 25 yards as Baltimore went away from their run game altogether.

Never again. Jackson’s legs open up space in the running and passing game by pulling defenses in his direction only to hand the ball off or throw it over their heads. Using RPOs, draws, and plays that move the pocket will also prevent the Chiefs’ pass rush from pinning their ears back and throwing everything they have at Jackson.

Creating the Nightmare

During one of his training camp press conferences, Monken said that he wanted an offense that was a “nightmare” to defend. One other player used the term “nightmare” to describe his role in the offense: Isaiah Likely.

That’s no coincidence: Likely is the key to unlocking the dangerous versatility that the Ravens’ offense can offer. With Henry now in the backfield, the Chiefs will try to keep their linebackers on the field. Putting Likely on the field at the same time as Mark Andrews will take advantage of the coverage deficiencies of Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill.  If the Ravens can use that to isolate 1-on-1 matchups, they’ll be able to move the ball through the air with ease.

But Likely being on the field doesn’t mean the Ravens have to compress their formations. He should see a healthy dose of snaps in the slot, allowing the Ravens to use a pseudo-11 personnel to attack the Chiefs’ weakness.

What I’ll be watching W1 for the Ravens is how often they run out of 11 personnel.
Last year, the Ravens ran out of 11 personnel at the lowest rate in the NFL (20.2%).
The Chiefs allowed the 3rd highest EPA/rush when facing 11 personnel.

Thoughts #RavensFlock?

— Daniel Rees (@DPRees8) September 1, 2024

Likely also comes into play in the run game. Jackson’s legs have a gravity of their own, and Henry next to him will only draw more attention from opposing defenses. If the Chiefs choose to match a defensive back up with him, the Ravens can move to pseudo-11 personnel with Likely in the slot and attack the outside with their run game, an area where the Chiefs struggled to defend last season.

Win on the Outside

The Chiefs’ biggest defensive success against the Ravens in the AFC title game came in single-high coverages. Jackson averaged 8.8 yards per attempt against single-high looks last season, second-best in the NFL, but went 5-for-15 for just 75 yards against Kansas City, per NFL Pro.

That was largely due to the physical play of the Chiefs’ cornerbacks, who consistently disrupted the Ravens’ receivers at the catch point. Spagnuolo weaponizes his cornerbacks, using them to attack screens, blitz the quarterback, and defend against the run.

L’Jarius Sneed’s departure should help out a bit, but Baltimore should scheme more ways to free up their receivers beyond checking into screens against the blitz. Monken’s use of motion to give Zay Flowers free releases was effective last season and should be relied on once again to get the Chiefs’ CBs moving at the snap.

The Ravens’ biggest answer to KC’s cornerback play is Rashod Bateman, who finally got a fully-healthy offseason and enters the season as Lamar Jackson’s WR2. He’s flashed the ability to beat press coverage and get open downfield across his first three seasons, but now he has to put it all together on a consistent basis. That includes run blocking and communication with Lamar Jackson against the blitz.

If Bateman can even threaten the Chiefs on the outside, he can neutralize Spagnuolo’s aggressive deployment of his cornerbacks and open up more space for the Ravens in the middle of the field where they’re strongest.

1-on-1 Matchup

Zay Flowers vs. Trent McDuffie

It’s tempting to put Hamilton and Kelce here, but we already covered that in January. First-round picks Xavier Worthy and Nate Wiggins are equally tantalizing as the only two players to run a sub-4.30 40-yard dash at the 2024 NFL Combine, but that matchup may not even materialize.

But one matchup we didn’t see in January but will certainly see on Thursday is Zay Flowers vs. Trent McDuffie. Flowers gashed the Chiefs for 115 yards on five catches, but McDuffie wasn’t his primary defender on a single target. With McDuffie taking over Sneed’s role at the nickel, he’ll frequently match up against Flowers, who took 40.5% of his snaps from the slot in the AFC Championship game, per PFF.

McDuffie has the coverage chops and tackling ability to stick to Flowers and limit his yards after the catch. But the Ravens can also use McDuffie’s playmaking role against him by getting Flowers in motion for jet sweeps, free releases, and misdirection. That will help open up space for Flowers while also occupying McDuffie and limiting his ability to impact the rest of the Ravens offense.

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