Are Both Baltimore TEs Worth a Fantasy Start?

Welcome to Week 2. Everyone is either 1-0 and 0-1 and the latter already thinks they’re doomed for the year. On the bright side, we have a fun week ahead with half of all managers offered a chance to level the playing field. Here’s to 2-0 or 1-1.

(All fantasy-related statistics are derived from FantasyPros.com and are based on standard format unless otherwise specified).

Raiders-Ravens Fantasy Outlook

Las Vegas doesn’t appear to have many bountiful fantasy assets this season, at least not yet. Their top finishers were Alexander Mattison (16.2 PPR points), Brock Bowers (11.8 points), Davante Adams (10.9 points) and Gardner Minshew (10.78 points). It’s not a great start for anyone, but at least the same can’t be said for much of Baltimore’s crew despite both teams entering the weekend 0-1.

Start

Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely? (TE)

I think right now, we’re all scratching our heads about Likely’s 111-yard, one-touchdown finish overshadowing Andrews’ mere 14 yards on two receptions.

Are we seeing a changing of the guard at the tight end position? Is Andrews being conserved in Baltimore’s pass game to stay healthy, only to make major strides towards the end of the season?

These are answers I don’t have, nor does anyone right now except the team’s personnel. What I can say is ‘do not panic,’ and instead, look at Andrews’ history against Kansas City:

Mark Andrews in 6 career games vs KC

– 0/0 (0 fantasy points)
– 3/15 (4.5 fantasy points)
– 3/22 (5.2 fantasy points)
– 5/57 (10.7 fantasy points)
– 2/15 (3.5 fantasy points)
– 2/14 (3.4 fantasy points)

I’m gonna go out on a limb & call this a matchup issue…

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) September 9, 2024

Combine these numbers with the simple fact that Kansas City’s top-tier pass rush caused Baltimore to once again shed its own game plan and conform to spamming screen plays. Andrews found himself blocking on more plays than he did getting open downfield, and when he was involved in the pass game, he found himself in double, if not triple, coverage.

This was the opposite for Likely, whose pass-catching abilities made him appear more as a WR2 than a tight end on Thursday. Is this a new norm for the tight end duo? It’s still too early to tell— but against teams where Lamar Jackson needs extra protection, maybe Andrews will start to fall under Likely in terms of offensive production.

Just remember, it’s only Week 2, and if you have Andrews on your team, you likely (sorry) drafted him in the fourth or fifth round. That’s too high of value to sit him just yet. Considering what Likely’s upside looks like after his recent 26.1 finish in full-PPR, both tight ends are contenders for starting this week.

Alexander Mattison, RB

After having an up-and-down 2023 season with Minnesota, Mattison earned himself a strong start in Week 1 against the Chargers with 12.2 points in standard format and 16.2 points in full-PPR.

Despite Las Vegas opting to throw the ball in 60% of their snaps, Mattison’s production in the pass-game kept him relevant on the offense. Scoring the Raiders their only touchdown of the game, he caught a screen pass from Minshew in the first quarter and found the end zone after a 31-yard run.

Mattison finds himself ranked between 47 and 48 at his position across all formats entering Week 2. The sixth-year running back serves as a solid RB2 or flex piece should Baltimore’s formidable secondary present issues for Davante Adams and Co. Considering how Isiah Pacheco put up 33 yards in just two receptions against Baltimore this past week, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Mattison follow suit with some respectable yards per carry.

Others to start: Lamar Jackson (QB), Derrick Henry (RB), Davante Adams (WR), Zay Flowers (WR), Brock Bowers (TE), Ravens D/ST, Justin Tucker (K)

Sit

Rashod Bateman, WR

Marking his second-straight week on my sit list, Bateman has yet to prove his fantasy relevance. There’s no doubt he managed a couple of clutch catches in Week 1 against Kansas City, but it was quite literally two receptions, one of which was a 38-yard catch in the final minute of the game.

Even in the absence of Odell Beckham Jr., Bateman still trailed in receptions to Likely (9), Zay Flowers (6) and Justice Hill (6), while tying with Mark Andrews (2). His five targets were only higher than Mark Andrews (2), Derrick Henry (2) and Nelson Agholor (1).

It’s a crowded corps for Bateman at the moment. Wait to see more involvement before moving him from your bench.

Gardner Minshew, QB

Minshew was a stat-leader in Week 1 with the eighth-most passing yards (257) and fourth-most completions (25) among quarterbacks. He’s shown glimpses that he may be an improvement from Jimmy Garoppolo for Las Vegas, but he finds himself against the second-highest ranked fantasy defense entering Week 2 (Baltimore only trails the Jets on FantasyPros).

Despite leading the Colts to a 22-19 victory over Baltimore last season, Minshew only threw one touchdown pass and was sacked five times. His completion percentage of 61.4% only earned him 13.1 fantasy points.

Now up against the Ravens yet again, there isn’t much upside that puts Minshew past another 13-15 point performance, despite the addition of Adams to his new receiving corps. If you find yourself streaming QBs, look elsewhere; Baker Mayfield is a great pickup if you can swing him.

Others to sit: Zamir White (RB), Jakobi Meyers (WR), Raiders D/ST, Daniel Carlson (K)

Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Frontrunners Around the League Start

Jameson Williams, WR

Williams led Detroit’s receiving corps across the stat sheet on Sunday, taking the attention away from expected playmakers Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The 23-year-old’s five receptions from nine targets (highest on the team) totaled out to 121 yards, resulting in 19.4 standard points and 24.4 points in PPR.

It’s probably unlikely that Williams will outproduce both LaPorta and St. Brown on the offense week-to-week. Detroit was similar to Baltimore this preseason by not playing their starters, so perhaps Williams flourished as No. 87 and No. 14 (as well as the entire offensive line) worked through shaking off the rust.

He enters Week 2 as a sturdy WR3 or flex option.

Tyler Lockett, WR

Lockett received plenty of unwarranted negativity in the offseason, at least in a fantasy sense for being in the company of D.K. Metcalf and year-two Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Lockett in fact led the offense against Denver with seven targets, eclipsing Metcalf’s four and JSN’s two. His 77 yards were also highest on the team and earned him a game ball from new head coach Mike Macdonald.

As Patrick Surtain II seemed to stick like glue to Metcalf in the season opener, Metcalf may face a similar treatment from second-year cornerback Christian Gonzalez when the Seahawks travel to Massachusetts for their 1:00 kickoff on Sunday. Seeing how Gonzalez held Ja’Marr Chase in Week 1 to 15 yards on three receptions (while covering him on 20 routes), combined with Kenneth Walker III’s recent abdominal injury that has him currently marked as questionable, the stars may be aligning for Lockett yet again.

Sit

Tyler Allgeier, RB

Allgeier had perhaps the quietest Week 1 performance among designated RB2s. Bijan Robinson’s 18 carries greatly overshadowed Allgeier’s three, as did Robinson’s 50 snaps in comparison to Allgeier’s 10.

The only upside to Allgeier is that he averaged seven yards per carry to finish his day against Pittsburgh with 21 yards. Robinson’s average yards per carry were 3.8, and the two backs tied their longest runs at 13 yards.

It appears Allgeier still has sufficient talent, but behind a highly-touted second-year star and under a new offensive coordinator, he currently sits far from starting consideration. Wait for his snap count to increase before you expect his projections to be exceeded on game day.

Allen Lazard, WR

Lazard made a big splash while opening his second season as a Jet by hauling in both of New York’s two receiving touchdowns, only one of which was thrown by quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The result was a third-place finish among wide receivers in fantasy, only behind Jayden Reed (another Week 2 starting candidate who reached 29.1 PPR points) and Cooper Kupp (32 PPR points).

Out of all wide receivers who are most likely free agents in your league, Lazard has the most upside with Rodgers at the helm of his offense. His stats from last season were abysmal in Rodgers’ absence, but looking at the duo’s other seasons together in Green Bay, Lazard had some respectable, but rather inconsistent, finishes in 2022 and 2021.

Now, as WR3 next to Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams, Lazard enters Week 2 against the Tennessee Titans who allowed the fewest passing yards in the league (93) in Week 1. Definitely snag him off the waiver wire if you can, but wait another week to see if his high target volume will be duplicated before starting him at flex or WR3. Consistency has always been an issue for No. 10.

Feel free to leave me your questions in the comments, or tweet me @BrennanStewart_ . Also, be sure to check out Tanner George’s top free agent pickups for Week 2 featuring Isaiah Likely and Justice Hill.

Good luck!

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Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/09/10/fantasy/andrews-likely-fantasy/