Four Downs: Can Ravens Avoid a Typical Pittsburgh Slop-Fest?

The Baltimore Ravens travel to Pittsburgh on Sunday, meaning this weekend couldn’t be more serious for the AFC North. The Steelers are 7-2 and the Ravens are 7-3. This will be the second big test for the Steelers in a row, coming off their impressive win against the Washington Commanders. The Ravens had an improbable comeback against the Bengals, keeping pace with their Western-Pennsylvania nestled counterpart. This one feels big.

Let’s break it down and go for it on all four downs.

First Down: Is Steelers’ Offense for Real? With this D, Does it Matter?

Pittsburgh started the season with a string of victories in spite of lackluster offensive performances. They beat the Falcons 18-10 to start the season and followed it up with a 13-6 squeaker against the Denver Broncos. When Mike Tomlin made the choice to bench Justin Fields for Russell Wilson, it raised some eyebrows. Here was a winning team deciding to change things up for a quarterback that was written off after a frustrating couple of seasons after his Seattle days. Wilson has brought a surprising dose of explosive plays to the Steelers. In three starts, he has six touchdowns and just one pick. He’s posted a 100+ passer rating two weeks in a row.

Most importantly, the Steelers have unlocked George Pickens as their number one playmaker. Pickens had five receptions for 91 yards and a touchdown against the Commanders, four receptions for 74 yards against the Giants, and his best game was against the Jets with 111 yards and a touchdown. Pickens being a consistent factor changes things for the Steelers. The most important takeaway for Pittsburgh though is that big plays down the field aren’t a sometimes offered weekly special but a consistent menu item. That game winner to Mike Williams that Wilson tossed over the Commanders’ defense wasn’t happening with Fields in the game.

There are two questions coming into this game:

Are the Steelers for real offensively?; and

Does it matter with the way the Ravens defense is struggling?

Wilson may not be Joe Burrow, but this defense did just give up 428 passing yards and four touchdowns days ago. Pickens may not be Ja’Marr Chase, but a number one target just went off for 11 receptions and 264 yards against this defense. When the Ravens have a matchup problem it sticks out in dramatic fashion. They’re just a few weeks removed from Jameis Winston coming in as a backup quarterback and throwing for 334 yards and three touchdowns. This is a defense that gave up 481 yards to Tampa Bay. It used to be that the Ravens defense would always keep Baltimore in the game, now it’s a defense that keeps their opponents within reasonable striking distance even if Lamar Jackson and the offense are delivering.

The Steelers have the most confidence on offense that they have had in multiple seasons while the Ravens are looking for the defensive prowess of years past.

Second Down: Pressuring Wilson

Don’t throw tomatoes at me, but I was encouraged by something I saw from the Baltimore defense this past Thursday evening. Lost in the Chase madness was the Ravens getting the most pressure on an opposing quarterback this season (or at least since the Sunday Night game against the Bills). Burrow was under fairly consistent duress. It’s easy for it to seem like a bizarre take but this was the best the defensive front looked this season.

Burrow got bailed out too many times because the Ravens couldn’t cover Chase or the officials couldn’t keep their yellow flags at rest on their person. The good news for the Ravens is that the Steelers don’t have a generational talent at wide receiver that set records at LSU; the bad news is the Steelers tend to get the calls everywhere, but especially in front of their home crowd.

The emphasis on the big play though, could work against the Steelers. One reason Wilson is better than Fields is that the offense stays on schedule. Wilson typically gets rid of the football and has a more technical timing of the play. If the Steelers are committed to the idea that the big play is the new lifeblood of this offense, it could encourage Wilson to hold the ball a bit longer, giving Baltimore a chance to knock him around in a bottled up pocket. I think the Ravens were pulling at the right thread (or at least the looser strings at the edge) against the Bengals – they just need the back end of the defense to finish.

The Ravens had three sacks (all from Nnamdi Madubuike) against the Bengals and the stops they did earn came from misfires due to QB hurries. Will the Steelers make a few big plays? Sure. The Ravens have problems that don’t just magically go away. I just have a sneaking suspicion that the defense can make some big plays by clustering the operations in the Pittsburgh backfield. It’s the perfect game for Madubuike to enforce himself. His best statistical game against the Bengals came because it was his most aggressive and assertive effort. He pile-drived the linemen in front of him and played with incredibly explosive leverage. Another two- or three-sack performance will go a long way in the Ravens’ quest to figure things out on defense. If the defense is going to make a stand, pass rush is the only way to do it.

Third Down: Jackson Needs to Face his Bully

Ravens fans have to admit that one of the few teams that has had Lamar Jackson’s number is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jackson has famously missed some matchups in this storied rivalry, but even when playing has a 2-4 record against Pittsburgh. More troubling is that he has tossed seven interceptions in these games. The moral of the story is that any way you look at it, things haven’t been pretty against the Steelers vaunted defense. The bizarre thing is that often the Ravens are the better team. Jackson and the starters didn’t even have to play in the regular season finale last year. The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game in six years, and the Ravens have been the number one seed twice since 2019. Jackson and the Ravens quite simply are tasked with turning the tide in this rivalry.

Jackson’s critics have so focused on his struggles in the playoffs and his problem getting past Patrick Mahomes that the fact that his Kryptonite has often been playing Pittsburgh has gotten overlooked. Jackson is on pace for his third MVP (or at least it certainly feels that way). He’s outpacing his MVP seasons. The Ravens offense is producing at a historic clip. If there was ever an offense that Mike Tomlin’s crew wasn’t ready for, you’d think it would be this one. The Steelers will be without one of their pass rushers with Alex Highsmith, who is out with an awful looking ankle injury suffered against the Commanders. That could be a challenge for Pittsburgh.

The Steelers defense only allows 87.1 rushing yards per game. The Ravens offense thrives best when Derrick Henry and the run game are rolling, and Pittsburgh will be keying in on the run game. While the Ravens want to display their pick-your-poison offense fully against their division rival, there would be some purple satisfaction from Jackson lifting the team past the Steelers. Jackson has the power to start rewriting how these battles go, he just has to change the narrative against Pittsburgh. The good news for the Ravens is that they are certainly tested. Baltimore put up 41 points and had their way with the Broncos great defense. The Chiefs were very lucky Isaiah Likely’s entire foot wasn’t in bounds on the final play of the season opener when the Ravens had 452 total yards.

The Steelers defense is great, the Ravens offense is great. Something has to give and Jackson is in full control of what that something is.

That’s the power a player going for his third MVP award can have in these types of games.

Fourth Down: Be Mindful of Momentum & Inexplicable Pittsburgh Bounce

The Baltimore Ravens are no stranger to the stadium formerly known as Heinz Field. Acrisure Stadium doesn’t have the same ring to it, but the inexplicable waves of momentum the Steelers like to ride still occur at the same frequency. The Steelers have a defense that takes the football away and they’re one of the few teams that prioritizes making plays on special teams. They make a lot of their luck, but there is a history of inexplicable plays that change things in their favor. Strange things just happen in that stadium. It’s okay if an uneasy feeling crept into your football mind; you’ve seen it happen too many times over the years. Remember the 2010 Divisional game? The Ravens were up 21-7 at halftime and a bizarre Ray Rice fumble changed everything. Momentum turned and the sea of yellow towels swirled up an avalanche on the Ravens. It’s a tough place to play and the Ravens aren’t the only team that knows that. I know my audience – you know exactly the kind of plays I’m talking about.

The Ravens need to control what they can control and John Harbaugh has to manage the game well. The Ravens have to hold on to the football and avoid dumb mistakes. No team in the NFL capitalizes off your mistakes like the Steelers. It’s a persistent and unavoidable thing, like that one song that you can’t stand that is somehow always on when you go shopping.

The Ravens need to control every aspect of this game. The Steelers want this to be an ugly, grueling fight. The Ravens need to try to win this one pretty. They need to control the ball and finish drives with scores. They need to play their game and put the same pressure on the Steelers that they would any other team. The Ravens mindset this season is that they know they’re scoring over 30 and the opponent knows they have to be nearly perfect to beat them. Just think about how the Bengals feel. Burrow and Chase put up video game numbers and it didn’t matter. This is the type of bind the Ravens have to put the Steelers in. If the Ravens win this game it’s because they stuck with their style of play and did what they wanted to do.

If the Ravens lose this game it’s because they didn’t finish drives and got into an underperforming brawl with a gritty Steelers team.

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