OTL: Which Rematch Will Ravens Get in Round 1?

We’re staring down the end of the year 2024, and with it, the end of the NFL’s regular season. As the game clocks hit zero this weekend, Baltimore’s first-round opponent will be named, but as of now, we’ve narrowed the list to only a few teams.

If the Ravens beat the Browns in the regular-season finale, Baltimore would win the AFC North and secure the AFC’s No. 3 seed. The Ravens would then play host to either Chargers or Steelers in first round of playoffs.

Chiefs and Bills have clinched top 2 seeds in AFC.

— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) December 30, 2024

Every NFL seeding scenario entering Week 18, via @RealJackAndrade: pic.twitter.com/5EkM16aRM6

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 30, 2024

The very busy chart that Tom Pelissero posted gives you the rundown of all of the scenarios which could determine the playoff matchups, so you can follow along this weekend if you’d like. To put it more simply, with a Ravens win on Saturday, they clinch the AFC North, lock up the #3 seed, and await either a home game against either Pittsburgh or the LA Chargers. With a loss and a Pittsburgh win against Cincy, the Ravens would go on the road and face the Texans in Houston.

With those opponents in mind, let’s talk about what you need to know coming into any one of those matchups. An important note: the scenario against the Texans is considered highly unlikely by the oddsmakers in Vegas, and ESPN’s Playoff Machine lists it as only 6% likelihood. For what it’s worth, Vegas oddsmakers also currently have the Ravens as a whopping 18-point favorite in their matchup against the Browns on Sunday.

The Ravens are currently 18-PT FAVORITES vs. the Browns Saturday pic.twitter.com/AVZkFKnbsH

— br_betting (@br_betting) December 30, 2024

I can’t say I disagree, especially after Tyler Huntley and the Dolphins tore them up this past weekend, and I hope the Ravens can do more of the same and simplify this equation. Still, let’s do our due diligence and run through each opponent anyway. You can get more information here about likelihood of each one at this link, but here we go:

LA Chargers

The fourth edition of the HarBowl would be the second time the Harbaugh brothers have squared off in the NFL postseason, with the first one working out pretty well for the Ravens. The Chargers have managed some of their offensive woes from earlier in the season, and are no doubt boosted on the offensive side of the ball with the return of J.K. Dobbins from IR. They’ve also won their last two games, beating the Broncos and Patriots while putting up a combined 74 points of offense. Ladd McConkey’s sterling rookie season has added to the threat posed through the air, and McConkey did register six catches for 83 yards when the Chargers met the Ravens back in November.

Still, the Ravens came away with a win in that one, and largely made the Chargers offense one-dimensional. Dobbins was limited to just 40 yards as he exited with an injury, and the Chargers managed just 43 more yards on the ground the rest of the day. The other factor to consider in the rematch is that this one would be in Baltimore rather than in LA, where the comfortable conditions of SoFi Stadium’s covered field would give way to the blistering January cold at The Bank. Beyond that, the travel distance from LA to Baltimore is no joke, and I can see it being an uphill battle for the Bolts.

Pittsburgh Steelers

On the one hand, this is a matchup that a lot of fans would like to see. Not only would a heated divisional rivalry in the playoffs be good TV for neutral fans, but a playoff win is also that much sweeter if you can end your most hated rival’s season. On the other hand, as Ravens fans, isn’t there just the slightest twinge of dread at having to face this Steelers team a third time? After all, the Steelers are the only one of Baltimore’s potential first-round foes to have beaten them this year. Still, the Ravens got the better of Pittsburgh in the more recent showdown, pulling away late and winning in pretty convincing fashion. While most players would love to tell you they have short memories after suffering losses, I’m sure the Steelers are still feeling the sting of how demoralizing that loss was, especially in the midst of their current losing streak, and that mental aspect could carry over into a rematch.

In the Mike Tomlin era, the Steelers have had only periodic postseason success, having not won a playoff game since the 2016 season. Beyond that, as of this writing, Pittsburgh has lost three in a row, all to playoff teams, which hopefully portends their odds once the postseason begins. It’s worth noting, though, that thanks to the virtue of the scheduling geniuses from the league, Pittsburgh does get the benefit of being able to know if they can rest starters going into their game against Cincy.

The Ravens and Browns will kick off at 4:30 p.m. Saturday, per the NFL.

The Bengals and Steelers will kick off at 8 p.m.

Sure would’ve helped the Ravens to know Pittsburgh’s result ahead of time. They could’ve rested starters with a Steelers loss and the AFC North secure.

— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) December 30, 2024

If they end up being the draw for the Ravens in the first round, the Bank is going to be raucous, and Baltimore’s players will be champing at the bit to try to send the Steelers on vacation.

Houston Texans

If things don’t go according to plan, the Ravens may end up having to go on the road to take on a division winner, and as much as I would dread them having to rack up the travel miles even more, Houston certainly isn’t the strongest contender in the world at the moment. C.J. Stroud has sputtered in the midst of a sophomore slump, and this team looks like there’s a world of difference between its current iteration and the version that beat the Bills back in October. That was their only win this season against a current playoff team, and they now approach the final week of the season without much to play for, having already locked up the AFC South and the #4 seed. Sure, this would again give a team the benefit of resting starters if they so wished, but last time we saw the Texans take the field, the Ravens skull dragged them at home in front of a national audience on Christmas Day. I mentioned before that players want to have short memories but can sometimes be demoralized by a tough loss; can you imagine the pit in the stomach of every Texans player and coach if they have to face Baltimore again so soon?

Houston will likely be the only AFC playoff team with a negative point differential, unless Miami can somehow sneak in. They’re down one of their top receiving targets for the remainder of the year, and other than their rush defense, the team as a whole hasn’t been dominant in any facet of the game. It may not be another beatdown like what we just saw, but I’d imagine a rematch doesn’t produce too different a result just a few weeks removed from the first game.

Regardless of the opponent, it looks like the Ravens are coming on at the right time. Hopefully, we’ll all be packing into The Bank to make the house loud for that Wildcard matchup.

Who would you rather the Ravens face in the WC round?

— Russell St. Report (@RussellStReport) December 31, 2024

The post OTL: Which Rematch Will Ravens Get in Round 1? appeared first on Russell Street Report.

Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/12/31/out-to-lunch/wild-card-rematch/