BATTLE PLANS: How to Beat the Bills Defense

Stick To Your Identity

The Ravens committed a cardinal sin in the AFC Championship game last year. After spending the entire season establishing an identity – running the ball out of heavy personnel with a healthy does of play action – they turned away from it. They must avoid the same mistake against the Bills this weekend (and going forward, should they continue to advance).

This year, Todd Monken has taken his offense’s ability to force mismatches to another level. It starts with his use of heavy personnel to press their advantage in the run game. In the Ravens’ Week 4 win over the Bills, they used multiple tight ends and running backs (or both) on 75% of their snaps. That forced Buffalo into their highest base personnel rate of the season (24.6%, compared to a season average of 3.6%), but Baltimore still rumbled for 247 yards on the ground, per Josh Norris of Underdog Fantasy

Monken went from heavy to colossal in the Wild Card round, with an 89% rate of heavy personnel with 16 snaps of jumbo personnel (six offensive linemen). Zay Flowers’ absence has led to a significant jump in jumbo usage, but even if he’s back on Sunday (unlikely), the Ravens should still stick with their 6-OL packages in the run games.

That’s because the Bills will be much more likely to match heavy and jumbo sets with nickel personnel now that Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, and Taron Johnson are healthy. Their defense prefers to keep their DBs on the field, mostly running nickel with a dime rate of 16.6%. Despite the high rates of light personnel, their loaded box rate (more defenders than blockers) still overs at 43.1%, just below the league average of 45.7%. Johnson slides into the box on 39.0% of his snaps, especially when the Bills match jumbo with nickel (55.9% of the time compared to a league average of 12.2%).

Opponents have largely played into the Bills’ light-personnel, loaded-box strategy, running the ball just 19.7% of the time. The Ravens haven’t fallen into the same trap this year, running the ball against loaded boxes 40.9% of the time with league-leading numbers from Derrick Henry (143 carries, 839 yards, 12 touchdowns, 49 missed tackles forced, +305 rush yards over expected).

With Johnson in the box, the Bills can stick to their 4-3 defensive structure and philosophy. The Ravens have gashed 4-3 defenses this year with wham and trap concepts, plus a healthy dose of QB-designed runs, all of which put penetrating defensive linemen in a bind. Taking one DL out of the play allows the Ravens’ blockers to climb to the second level and set up chunk opportunities for the ballcarriers.

But the Ravens have to stick with the run to work those explosive plays. The Bills will get a few stops, but virtually no defense is built to withstand a four-quarter onslaught from this rushing offense. The Ravens are one of the few teams who can run themselves out of a deficit. They just need to remember that.

Spread and Attack

Heavy personnel doesn’t mean that the Ravens have to crowd the line of scrimmage. Splitting Mark Andrews and/or Isaiah Likely into the slot and out wide will force the Bills defenders into a bind no matter what they call.

If the Bills choose to spread out to defend the pass, the Ravens should work the read-option game with Jackson and Henry with plenty of time in the pistol. Henry leads all ballcarriers since 2016 with 9.3 yards per carry from pistol, including a six-carry, 127-yard performance against the Bills in Week 4. Option plays allow the Ravens to change the math at the line of scrimmage, taking a front-seven defender out of the play and allowing their blockers to climb to the second level.

More likely, Buffalo sticks to loaded boxes. The Ravens should still be willing to get under center and run the ball, but Monken should mix in play action to open up passing lanes for Jackson. Baltimore’s 61.8% play action rate ranked fourth in the NFL, and Jackson led the NFL with a 130.3 passer rating on such plays. The Bills have been disciplined against play action this season, limiting opposing passers to just 7.4 yards per attempts (third-lowest), which is why the run has to remain an ever-present threat to suck in the linebackers. Unfortunately, Zay Flowers was a large part of that success.

Ravens Didn’t Miss a Beat Without Zay? Not So Fast…

Those play action passes should be designed to attack zone coverage, which the Bills run at a 76.3% rate (eighth-highest).. Jackson has reached new heights against zone coverage this year, leading the league with 9.5 yards per attempt and a 119.1 passer rating that leads all quarterbacks since at least 2018. He can work underneath and target the seams with his tight ends while also looking for Rashod Bateman, who is excellent at sitting down in soft spots. Play action will also help draw in the linebackers to set up deep overs.

The Bills may choose to test Jackson’s ability to handle the blitz without Flowers. Opponent blitz rate jumps from 32.9% to 45.5% when Flowers leaves the field. The Bills tend to stick with a four-man rush (75.5%, seventh-highest), but they’re effective when blitzing (47.0% pressure rate). That will set up another big game for Justice Hill, who was an excellent outlet for Jackson in Week 4 and the Wild Card round. Across both games, he caught all 10 of his targets on just 23 routes for 91 yards and two touchdowns. His ability to pass block and then leak out of the backfield as a receiver will be crucial to beating the blitz if Flowers can’t play.

Win on the Outside

Ultimately, the Bills will commit to controlling the middle of the field and will be able to rack up a few stops. The offense has stuttered when that has happened, so they need to be able to change gears and attack on the outside.

Motion has been an extremely effective part of the Ravens’ offense this year. Their 7.1 yards per play with motion lead all offenses since at least 2018 because of Monken’s ability to use motion in a variety of ways. His use of jet motion was especially effective against the Steelers, getting them to move laterally to open up rushing games while mixing in a sweep for Steven Sims that went for 15 yards.

But Monken does far more with motion. He’ll frequently put a tight end on the move, working a numbers advantage or pulling the defense to set up a cutback lane. Henry gashed the Bills on the outside in Week 4, racking up 173 yards on 13 carries while being held to 2.4 yards per carry on the inside. The Bills will be focused on holding the edge this week, so Monken should mix in counter concepts to take advantage.

Winning on the outside also applies to the receivers. Especially if Flowers is out, the Bills will let the Ravens’ wideouts work 1-on-1 matchups on the outside. The run game should keep them out of split-safety looks, so Bateman will have his opportunities. The ball won’t come his way often, but he has made the most of his opportunities with 10.5 yards per target this season, the eighth-highest in the NFL. When he gets going off double-moves, defenses simply can’t stay with him. The Ravens’ offensive line needs to give Jackson enough time, but when they do, he needs to look for Bateman downfield.

1-on-1 Matchup: RT Roger Rosengarten vs. OLB Von Miller

The rookie’s gauntlet continues. Week 4 was Roger Rosengarten’s first start at right tackle, but he faced Von Miller on just nine snaps before the veteran edge rusher went down with an injury.

Since Week 12, Miller has taken off, with league-bests in pressure rate (24.1%) and average get-off rate (0.60-seconds). He’s played all but one snap on the left side of the defense this year, setting him up for an extended matchup with the rookie.

Rosengarten’s 12.0% pressure rate ranks fourth among right tackles, but he has continually improved as the year has continued. He’s also gotten plenty of help from chips, but there will be situations where he has to contain Miller on his own.

Miller has dominated in those scenarios with a 32.4% pressure rate on third downs since Week 12. Rosengarten doesn’t have to shut him down, but he has to avoid quick pressures and give Jackson a chance to create some magic on the run.

All advanced stats via Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted.

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