Slicing into Schedules: Analyzing the Early Slates for AFC North, Chiefs & Bills

Preseason is here and the excitement for the season is beginning to ratchet up.  Many people race to make season predictions, attempting to predict wins and losses throughout the whole season and guess where each team stacks up at this point.  We also know that NFL schedules are not created equal, and every team has different challenges built in.  You will see rankings of schedule strength all over the place, but keep in mind that these are based off of last year’s standings and don’t consider changes teams have made, good or bad, since then.  In reality, there are many teams that we don’t know if they will be good, bad, or somewhere in between at this point.

We all know lots can change between now and January (and hopefully February), so rather than breaking down the entire schedule for the Ravens and other teams I feel are competitors, I am breaking down the September schedules for the AFC North, and the Bills and Chiefs, since most people expect them to be the top contenders in the AFC.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Week 1:  @ Buffalo Bills, Sunday 9/7 8:20 EDT

Week 2:  vs. Cleveland Browns, Sunday 9/14 1:00 EDT

Week 3:   vs. Detroit Lions, Monday 9/22 8:15 EDT

Week 4:  @ Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday 9/28 4:25 PM

No doubt about it: the Ravens will be tested early with a brutal schedule the first month of the season.  First off is a road game and rematch of their playoff defeat last year in Buffalo.  Then Week 2, they have a Browns team that always plays them tough. Throw in that they’re seeing a familiar face in Joe Flacco at QB.  Week 3 is home against one of the best teams in the AFC, then Week 4 brings the Chiefs at Arrowhead (on short rest after a Monday night game), which is always an ultra-challenging test.

The good news is we’ll know how the Ravens stack up early.  The bad news is that the Ravens better bring their “A” game to start the season; hopefully their decision to rest starters in preseason doesn’t lead to sloppy play early.

If that’s the case, the Ravens could find them self in a hole early.  Going .500 in this stretch is probably most likely; 3-1 would be a great start.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Week 1:  @ Cleveland Browns, Sunday 9/7 1:00 EDT

Week 2:  vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday 9/14 1:00 EDT

Week 3.  @ Minnesota Vikings, Sunday 9/21 1:00 EDT

Week 4:  @ Denver Broncos, Monday 9/29 @ 8:15 EDT

The Bengals start out on the road against the Browns in a game that they should win, but we all know division battles are always tight.  Cincy has started off slowly in years past, so they have switched up their preseason strategy, opting to play starters more in preseason.  Week 2 is another very winnable game at home vs. the Jaguars.  Week 3 brings them to Minnesota.  The Vikings are a bit of an unknown with inexperienced J.J. McCarthy at QB.  You could definitely make an argument that the Bengals caught a break by getting the Vikings early, in what will likely be only McCarthy’s 3rd NFL regular season game.  Week 4 brings a tough road game against up and coming Denver Broncos.

There will be tougher tests to come for the Bengals this season, but I think this schedule sets them up for a strong start, most likely 4-0 or 3-1.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Week 1:  @ New York Jets, Sunday 9/7 @ 1:00 EDT

Week 2:  Home vs. Seattle Seahawks, Sunday 9/14 @ 1:00 EDT

Week 3:  at New England Patriots, Sunday 9/21 @ 1:00 EDT

Week 4:  vs. Minnesota Vikings (in Dublin, Ireland), Sunday 9/28 @ 9:30 am EDT

Week 1 brings the revenge match for both QBs.  Justin Fields was discarded by the Steelers and goes to the Jets.  Aaron Rodgers was discarded by the Jets and goes to the Steelers.  I expect an ugly game that could go either way.  In Week 2, the Seahawks travel from the West Coast and have to play at 1:00 EDT, which is a benefit to the Steelers.  Week 3 sees the Steelers travel to Gillette to face the Patriots.  Many people think the Patriots will be much better this year, but Drake Maye is still a young QB, so expect the Steelers defense to wreak havoc.  Week 4 is an international game, so all bets are off, as you never know how a team will respond.  McCarthy (likely) will face a tough Steelers defense in just his 4th NFL regular season game.  All four of these games are hard to predict, but you know the Steelers will play tough.  I expect the Steelers to come out 2-2 or 3-1 from this stretch.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Week 1:  Home vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday 9/7 @ 1:00 EDT

Week 2:  @ Baltimore Ravens, Sunday 9/14 @`1:00 EDT

Week 3:  Home vs. Green Bay Packers, Sunday 9/21 @ 1:00 EDT

Week 4:  @ Detroit Lions, Sunday 9/28 @ 1:00 EDT

The Browns have a very tough schedule to start off with two tough division games vs. the Bengals and at Baltimore, followed by tough games against Green Bay and in Detroit.  Old friend Joe Flacco leads them into battle to start the season.  We all know Flacco is a competitor who is capable of keeping them in games, but also of losing games with turnovers.  I still have faith in Flacco, so I think the Browns steal a win somewhere in September (hopefully not against the Ravens), so I will guess the Browns will be 1-3 in this stretch.  The question is when do the Browns decide to give one of their young QBs a shot, as it is unlikely they will be in contention this year.

BUFFALO BILLS

Week 1:  Home vs. Baltimore Ravens, Sunday 9/7 @ 8:20 EDT

Week 2:  @ New York Jets, Sunday 9/14 @ 1:00 EDT

Week 3:  Home vs. Miami Dolphins, Thursday 9/18 @ 8:15 EDT

Week 4:  Home vs. New Orleans Saints, Sunday 9/28 @ 1:00 EDT.

The Bills of course have the playoff rematch with the Ravens week 1, which should be an absolute thriller of a game.  Their next three are very winnable games against non-playoff teams from last year:  Jets, Dolphins, and Saints.  Of those teams, the Dolphins are capable of putting a scare in them if Tua remains healthy.  Hard to see the Bills being any worse than 3-1 to start the season (let’s hope they pick up a loss in Week 1!)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Week 1:  vs. Los Angeles Chargers (in Sao Paulo, Brazil) Friday 9/5 @ 8:00 EDT.

Week 2: Home vs. Philadelphia Eagles Sunday 9/14 @ 4:25 EDT

Week 3:  @ New York Giants, Sunday 9/21 @ 8:20 EDT

Week 4:  Home vs. Baltimore Ravens, Sunday 9/28 @ 4:25 EDT

The Chiefs will be tested in their first four games, playing the Chargers, Eagles, and Ravens in their first four weeks, but KC caught some breaks from the NFL schedule creators (of course).  First, they get a division opponent in an international game, which counts as a home game for the Chargers.  They then get two extra days of rest before a home game vs. the Eagles.  Then, after traveling to the Giants, they get the Ravens who will be on short rest after playing the previous Monday night.  It seems like things always go the Chiefs’ way, so despite the tough schedule to start, expect the Chiefs to be sitting at 3-1 at the end of September.

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