Chicago Cubs: Why Imanaga’s return dooms the Cubs to a mediocre winter

The Chicago Cubs are definitely okay with Shota Imanaga being back in the starting rotation for 2026. They wouldn’t have extended him the $22 million qualifying offer if they weren’t.

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The problem all along seemed to be investing in a third year when it comes to a 32-year-old whose home run issues started becoming a genuine problem, with 12 home runs given up in his last six regular season starts and two horrendous playoff outings. That’s why they declined their 3-year, $57 million option on the Japanese star. The feeling is that Imanaga is more than capable of turning things around in 2026, but that it would be too much of a gamble to bank on him staying on track for 2027 and 2028 as well.

In turn, Imanaga did his part and turned away his 2-year, $30 million player option. The Cubs then followed up with the qualifying offer, which was a win-win of sorts as they still had a chance of retaining the lefty’s services for one season, but also stood to gain draft pick compensation should he be lost in free agency.

As things would turn out, Imanaga accepted the Cubs’ offer on Tuesday, postponing a free agent run until after next season. He rejoins a starting rotation also featuring Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, and a returning (at some point) Justin Steele, along with backups Javier Assad and Colin Rea.

Hello again, Shota Imanaga; Goodbye free agent studs?

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The big question for fans, though, is whether Imanaga’s return will impact the Cubs’ publicly declared pursuit of pitching this winter.

According to a payroll projection from FanGraphs, the Cubs’ payroll now sits at just over $191 million after counting in Imanaga return (also counting arbitration-related salary increases). That places the team about $53 million under the first luxury tax threshold of $244 million.

Assuming the Cubs will want a buffer for in-season acquisitions, a safe assumption would be that the team will have about $35-40 million to play with this offseason– if Cubs ownership allows the front offices to spend up to the threshold.

Would it also be a safe assumption that this might take the Cubs out of the running for a high-end free agent starting pitcher?

Money, money, money

ESPN is projecting top-of-the-mark free agents Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez to pull in multi-year contracts making $29 million and $28 million, respectively. If those projections prove to be accurate, that would leave the Cubs with just about $11-$12 million with which to rebuild their bullpen and acquire at least two reliable bench assets. This also means, by the way, that Kyle Tucker is a goner– if this hasn’t been made obvious already.

It most definitely doesn’t seem in character for the Cubs to overshoot budget markers, even though they could justify it this offseason with so many contracts potentially going off the books at the end of 2026 (Imanaga, Boyd, Taillon, Rea, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki, Carson Kelly).

Chicago Cubs, once again bargain hunters?

So, this means Chicago will, again, most likely do their free agent shopping in the bargain bin. Using the justification that they will have five strong starting pitchers and two capable backups, they will likely aim low when it comes to starters, maybe opting for reclamation projects on a one-year deal.
Their bullpen approach will be similar, as they search for under-the-radar assets at a bargain price.

The biggest chance at adding an impact arm will be via trade, as the Cubs are rumored to be interested in the Marlins’ Edward Cabrera and loosely tied to pitchers such as the Twins’ Joe Ryan and the Royals’ Kris Bubic. Cabrera would be especially appealing to Chicago as he’s under contract through 2028, making club-friendly money.

Barring a big trade, though, this winter may turn out to be a dud of an offseason as ownership braces itself for a bad blood labor dispute in 2027 and a likely lockout.

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Source: https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-shota-imanaga-free-agents-2026-cease-valdez