Can the Cubs comfortably declare an ace of the staff?

The Chicago Cubs will have no shortage of starting pitchers (assuming health) come Opening Day, but the question of who the ace of the staff will be still remains. Justin Steele would be the guy, but he will not be ready to pitch come March 26. Plus he will need to ramp up and shake off the rust once he returns.

Outside of Steele, the current rotation has several number one candidates, but there is currently no Carlos Zambrano, Jon Lester, or Jake Arrieta type shoo-in. Most of the Cubs’ healthy starters on paper are arguably considered 3-5 arms on other contending rotations. At least by more “traditional” standards, noting the dynamics of pitching staffs have evolved in recent years. So that’s a bit subjective.

Potential Cubs ace candidates.

When looking at an “ace candidate” right now, it’s primarily about who will start Opening Day. Who starts a postseason series is well down the road, assuming they get there. Based on history and/or abilities, the three arms that stand out are Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, and Edward Cabrera.

Boyd is coming off a career year, pitching to a 3.21 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 3.65 FIP, 7.7 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 in 179.2 innings (31 starts). Of the three names mentioned, he is the veteran who has pitched in over 1,000 innings and made 199 career starts. Horton displayed ace-like potential in his rookie 2025 season. Over his last 14 starts last year, he pitched to a 1.36 ERA, 2.96 FIP, and 64 strikeouts in 73 innings. Cabrera is an electric arm that ranked in the 87th percentile in fastball velocity (upper 90s MPH), while ranking between 70th and 80th percentile in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates.

Boyd likely has the upper hand right now, considering the experience. Durability across a season is a concern based on his injury history, and his strikeout rate last year was not huge. Projections are still pretty solid though, even coming off a career year at age 34. Horton feels like the highest ceiling, though the workload is a question. Marcels Projections (via Baseball-Reference) are fairly bullish on the 24-year old righty, projecting a 3.23 ERA with an 8.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 2026. Though just 117 innings pitched. It would be a bit more surprising to see Cabrera be the guy, but he’s got the stuff to be an ace.

Why not other Cubs starters?

While one cannot definitively rule out Shota Imanaga, he feels like a middle rotation guy going forward. He’s shown he can pitch well in the Majors, sporting a 3.28 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 54 MLB starts. That said the weaknesses really showed in the later half of 2025. He’s a heavy flyball pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs; even in 2024 he surrendered 27 in 173.1 innings (58 in 318 innings total). He can generate whiffs with his repitor of pitches but he’s not overpowering. Worth noting the whiff rate last year was in the 44th percentile vs. being in the 72nd percentile in 2024.

This does not mean Imanaga cannot be an effective pitcher in 2026. It would just be hard to peg him as a 1 or 2 in a rotation right now.

Jameson Taillon has the most innings pitched of any starter on the staff (1,237), but he’s a lower to middle rotation type pitcher. He’s been a workhorse over the past few years, sporting a 3.43 ERA and only 81 walks over his last 385.2 innings pitched. He’s also given up his share of homers (101 over his past three seasons) while not having ace-like stuff that generates whiffs. Not a knock, he’s a good 3-4 starter who can be very effective while not dominant.

The rest of the pitching depth on the 40-man like Colin Rea, Javier Assad, Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks would serve as swing guys. Spring Training will paint a clearly picture on who will get pegged as the top dog in the rotation.

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