Chicago Cubs: Power numbers way down in 2026, per projection

The Chicago Cubs had a banner offensive year in 2025. One could even argue, especially over the first half of the season, that the offense carried the team to a great extent.

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It’s definitely not outrageous to say that the team’s outstanding start to the season– led by the offense– put them in a good spot to cruise to a playoff spot despite a not-so-outstanding last part of the season.

For about the first part of 2025, the Cubs’ offense was an absolute juggernaut.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong lit up the league with MVP-level numbers over the first half of the season, hitting 25 home runs, stealing 28 bases, and driving in 71 runs. Seiya Suzuki was on fire, posting 25 dingers by the All-Star break. Even Carson Kelly looked almost “Babe Ruthian” very early into the season, when he hit 6 home runs in a span of 46 at bats in March-April.

But there was even more.

First baseman Michael Busch had a monstrous sophomore season with 34 home runs and 90 RBIs. Shortstop Dansby Swanson upped his home run total by 8 over the previous season. Second baseman Nico Hoerner’s power numbers didn’t go up, but his batting average rose 24 points to .297.

Then, of course, there was right fielder Kyle Tucker, who had come over from the Houston Astros via trade to become the linchpin of the Cubs’ lineup, at least until post-All-Star break struggles made him more of a lineup liability.

Despite a fairly lackluster second half of the season (by comparison to the first half), the Cubs offense finished sixth in home runs (223) and fifth in runs scored (793).

A projected power outage for 2026

This coming season, though, analysts haven’t been kind when it comes to how the Cubs’ offense will fare.

Thomas Nestico of TJStats recently compiled a power projection that ranks Chicago eleventh in MLB team home run total for 2026. Nestico sees them finishing with a total of 198 homers, just ahead of the Houston Astros and in a statistical tie with the Philadelphia Phillies.

If that projection proves to be correct, it means the Cubs will hit 25 fewer home runs in 2026, something which represents a significant drop in long ball proficiency.

Nestico’s projection is just a composite number based on the average from five other projection systems (Steamer, ATC, The Bat X, ZiPS, Oopsy), but the numbers tell the tale of an offense seen as in regression. It should also be noted that none of the listed projection systems have the Cubs anywhere near their 2025 home run total, with the lowest projection being 187 and the highest at 205.

In terms of run production, Nestico hasn’t produced a composite projection yet, but the few available projections in that regard also aren’t kind to the Cubs. PECOTA, for example, projects 736 runs scored in 2026, down 57 from 2025.

The logic behind the pessimism

It all kind of makes sense, though.

Tucker was a non-entity over the second half of last season, but he still projects as a more potent offensive weapon than the incoming Alex Bregman. Meanwhile, Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki, and Busch are coming off career years and will likely see some more modest numbers this coming season.

None of this is to say that Chicago will have a bad year. The power and run production numbers still put them in the top half of baseball and are consistent with the tallies of postseason-bound teams.

It does mean, however, that the Cubs might have to push a little bit harder to get to last year’s total of 92 wins.

The post Chicago Cubs: Power numbers way down in 2026, per projection appeared first on ChiCitySports.

Source: https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-power-home-runs-projection-2026-pca-suzuki-busch-bregman-tucker/