Chicago Cubs: Will Shōta Imanaga have a short leash in 2026?

With all of the Chicago Cubs starting pitchers back in camp, they’ll go through the final stretch of ramp-up before the season starts. Matthew Boyd was just named the Opening Day starter, with the rest of the rotation order to be set. One of the biggest question marks heading into the season is Shōta Imanaga. He will be in the rotation, likely somewhere between the 3-5 spot. The question is, can he rebound from late last year, and does he have a short leash?

Concerns remain in Spring Training as he’s given up four homers in 8.1 innings in Cactus League play. While giving up home runs in Spring is normally not a point of emphasis, given Arizona’s hitter-friendly environment and the fact that pitchers are just working back, it’s a particular concern for Imanaga. The flyball-heavy pitcher’s struggles late last season and in the postseason raised worries about a bad trend.

Imanaga could have a shorter leash.

It’s important to note that a short leash occurs if Imanaga struggles, though he might not. He’s shown he can pitch in this league, even with the flyballs and home runs. There was going to be some regression from 2024’s 2.91 ERA season, with 27 homers surrendered and a 45.5% flyball rate, but his command allowed him to be effective over his first 45 career starts (2.98 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 244 K vs. 45 BB). Flyballs will always be a part of his game; it’s limiting the damage. Getting the whiff rate back up will be important.

However, if there are early struggles, safety valves are available. Craig Counsell was not afraid to pull Imanaga from the rotation in October when he struggled. That was when they were short on starters and opted for bullpen games, too. The current Cubs staff can go in several directions, including pivoting to Colin Rea or Javier Assad. Neither is a dominant pitcher, and going a full season with them as starters isn’t ideal, but Rea was big last year in keeping the Cubs in games while others were down.

Not to mention the return of Justin Steele, hopefully in May or June. That creates more flexibility and a bit less pressure on the rotation, assuming everything is going well with Boyd, Cade Horton, Edward Cabrera, and Jameson Taillon. A bonus for Imanaga is that the games at Wrigley Field before Steele’s return will likely have more favorable pitching conditions.

Imanaga’s 2026 outlook.

With a deep pitching staff that can hopefully stay effective and healthy, it takes some pressure off Imanaga. It’s really good for the Cubs if he can pitch closer to 2024, but he does not make or break the rotation. At this point in a fully healthy Cubs rotation, he’s probably the 4 or 5 starter.

He might be making $22 million in 2026, but it’s for one year. The Cubs are not obligated to make him a staple in the rotation long-term. If he needs to be moved to the pen because of struggles, and a rotation can be filled, they could do it. Hopefully, Imanaga can rebound. Even if he’s not 2024-level good, as long as he can be a solid mid-lower rotation pitcher, the Cubs will take it.

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