The “Draft Ty Simpson at 16 but absolutely not at 2” Take

I understand this take as a fan: it feels like the inevitable hedge for a Franchise QB-less Jets team. The logic is that whiffing at #2 means losing out on a blue-chip non-Mendoza prospect, whereas whiffing at #16 only costs you the 15th-best non-Mendoza prospect.

That’s a fan’s take. If you are the GM?

If you are the GM, you accept that he is your FQB swing, whether you pull the trigger at #2 or #16. Success is binary: you either find the guy (and this leads to team success) or you get fired. Whiffing at #2 or #16 gets you canned either way, unless you happen to miracle into a Day-3 Brock Purdy to offset the Simpson bust (while making the playoffs at the same time).

If you truly love Simpson enough to bet your GM career on him at #16, why risk losing him to someone else in the #3–15 range? If you like him at 16, you love him, and that’s enough to take a QB at 2—especially in the absence of an obvious, generational-hype prospect at the top of the board.

The “I like Ty Simpson at 16, but not 2” crowd is simply putting their thumb on the scale. They don’t actually love the player; they just recognize the Jets need a shot at the position and have three first-rounders next year. In practical terms, a “Sure, why not?” QB pick for a GM occurs at #33, or even better at #44, not in the middle of the first round.

What do I think will happen?

My guess here in March is Mougey only takes Ty Simpson if he falls to #33 (or within short reach via a trade-up from #33). Absent a Breece Hall trade, he likely drafts a LB/Edge at #2 and then uses #16 on a WR (draft or BTJ trade) or on a CB.

If Mougey loved Simpson enough to bet his job on him, he shouldn’t risk losing him to another team over some flawed #2 pick. Furthermore, the Jets may be leaking interest in multiple prospects at #2 anyway (with more leaks to come); a GM does that when he wants to trade down, not when he’s locked in on a QB who could otherwise go as high as #3.

Why won’t he?

• Taking him at #2 is a gambler GM’s move.
• Liking him enough to take him at #16 (but risking losing him before then) is a gambler GM’s move.
• A FQB-less gambler GM drafts Jaxson Dart, not a safe RT prospect, in 2025.

If Simpson doesn’t slip to the second round, Mougey likely takes a lower-risk (or even PR-based) shot with Beck, Allar, or Nussmeier at #44—or waits for Day 3 entirely.

I think Mougey’s actual plan is to keep his powder dry for 2027. He has been targeting that class since the 2025 trade deadline, preferring 2027 picks over 2026. He wants to build a cushier landing spot for a future QB than the one he has now. This is a pragmatic play based on Simpson having only one year of starts and a scouting profile that is far from all-glowing.

My dark horse for big Jets news on draft day?

If he can swing it, Mougey uses #16 or #33 to flip into another 2027 first-rounder. If he gets that blessing from Woody in advance, it buys Trader-Moug a second mulligan year and provides more ammo (if needed) to move up for Manning or Sayin in 2027.