“In Very Serious Negotiations”: Crude Prices Tumble After Trump Says US Close To Nuclear Deal With Iran

Brent crude prices fell on Thursday as geopolitical risk premiums eased following President Trump’s comments during his Gulf tour, where he signaled that the U.S. is nearing a nuclear deal with Iran. Unlike earlier headlines on AI, defense, and aviation deals with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Trump’s comments suggested a potential breakthrough in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.

“We’re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace,” Trump told reporters in a press pool that AFP News first reported. 

Speaking in Doha, Qatar, during his Middle East trip, the president said, ”We’re getting close to maybe doing a deal without having to do this… there (are) two steps to doing this, there is a very, very nice step and there is the violent step, but I don’t want to do it the second way.”

An Iranian source told Reuters that negotiations with Trump administration officials still needed to bridge some gaps before a final deal could be reached. 

Trump’s comments followed an NBC News interview with Ali Shamkhani, a top political, military and nuclear adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said Tehran is prepared to sign a nuclear deal—provided key conditions are met—in exchange for the lifting of U.S. economic sanctions. 

With Trump Touring Gulf, Iran Offers Huge Nuclear Concession https://t.co/NQ4259UIsE

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 14, 2025

Trump confirms reports that Iran have “sort of agreed to the terms” that they cannot have nuclear capabilities!

Trump confirms he is currently in “very serious negotiations with Iran, for long-term peace”!

Trump also highlights how “many people” want war with Iran, but that he… pic.twitter.com/rVSkScNRIN

— Clandestine (@WarClandestine) May 15, 2025

NBC News pointed out that Shamkhani’s comments “appear to be the clearest public statement yet on Iran’s expectations and willingness to reach a deal from the supreme leader’s inner circle.” 

Trump has offered “an olive branch” to Tehran after a multi-month maximum-pressure campaign, including economic sanctions and deploying long-range stealth bombers to America’s “unsinkable aircraft carrier” – located in the Indian Ocean – ready to be deployed at a moment’s notice.

However, last week, ahead of Trump’s Gulf tour, we spotted at least one of these stealth bombers returning to the U.S. We suggested this may have been an act of goodwill ahead of talks by the U.S. or possibly just a routine flight.  

On Thursday, Brent crude futures fell 3% to $60 a barrel on expectations that a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal would ease sanctions and increase crude oil on international markets.

“The overnight development of a possible nuclear deal is the sole reason for the morning’s weakness. If an agreement is reached, Iran agrees to halt enriching weapon grade uranium and the deal is effectively enforced, which is hard to believe, then the Persian Gulf country’s crude oil exports can rise by as much as 1 [million barrels per day],” PVM analyst Tamas Varga told CNBC in an emailed statement. 

“It sounds price negative, but its impact will possibly be mitigated by OPEC+ rolling back on its plan to release barrels back to the market faster than originally planned,” he added.

Goldman trader Rich Privorotsky commented on the development: 

Staying with geopolitics there are some rather positive stories emanating out of Iran. “Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal with certain conditions with President Donald Trump in exchange for lifting economic sanctions, a top adviser to Iran’s supreme leader told NBC News on Wednesday.” Unclear if the U.S. will agree to the terms but they seem fairly broad: “He said Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium which can be weaponized, agree to only enrich uranium to the lower levels needed for civilian use, and allow international inspectors to supervise the process, in exchange for the immediate lifting of all economic sanctions on Iran.” (NBC news) If confirmed I think oil could eventually end up heading back to the recent lows and I would continue to express any cyclical concerns in this space.

Here’s the latest commentary from UBS traders:

Oil Equity Resilience Amid Oil Price Drop Oil prices are down, mainly because of a potential deal with Iran. That could mean up to 500kb/d increased supply coming to market very quickly. Oil equities, however, are already underweight for generalists and specialists have already de-grossed, following the OPEC+ surprises so far this year – hence oil equities are proving to be relatively resilient even though the oil price is down.

If Trump secures a nuclear deal with Tehran, it would cap off a week of landmark agreements with Gulf nations—collectively worth trillions—and add to an already bullish news cycle for the president. Also, this would mean continued easing of geopolitical risk premiums in the region, in other words, lower energy prices for Trump to pursue his ‘America First’ agenda.