Who Won The Latest Indo-Pak Conflict?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Opinions are mixed about who came out on top in the latest Indo-Pak conflict, but one thing is for certain, and it’s that India’s new doctrine is the lasting takeaway. 

According to reports, India will regard all future acts of terrorism as acts of war by Pakistan, which will result in cross-border strikes. 

That might not deter Pakistan, whose military leadership relies on the unresolved Kashmir Conflict to legitimize its outsized influence, but it could still make them think twice about orchestrating future attacks.

Moreover, the Indus Waters Treaty remains suspended despite the fragile ceasefire/”understanding” between them, which collectively contributes to the new reality in South Asia. Reports also suggest that it was Pakistan, not India, which asked the US to diplomatically intervene in the latest conflict. About that, India denied that any mediation took place despite the US’ claims, but the US probably passed along messages from Pakistan to India on Islamabad’s behalf during talks between their officials.

CNN claimed that Vance called Modi after receiving “alarming intelligence”, which hints that Pakistan told the US that it might use of nuclear weapons in desperation, likely due to India bombing multiple bases across the country. If that’s indeed what happened, then it would imply that Pakistan believed that was losing, thus lending credence to perceptions that India got the best of it. After all, the aforesaid strikes weren’t intercepted, which shows that India achieved escalatory dominance over Pakistan.

Although some Pakistani drones and missiles hit targets inside of India, Russia’s S-400s were praised by national media for neutralizing many of the incoming attacks. Likewise, the jointly produced BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles were used in India’s successful attacks against Pakistani bases, thus proving that Russian military equipment is truly some of the best in the world. By contrast, Pakistan’s mostly Chinese equipment fell short of some observers’ lofty expectations, which reflects negatively on both.

Nevertheless, many in the Alt-Media Community – including some top “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” – insist that Pakistan defeated India, though there are reasons to suspect that they don’t actually believe this but are driven by ulterior motives in claiming otherwise. Most of these same figures are known for their support of Palestine and/or China, and given that India is close to Israel and at odds with China, supporting Pakistan is “ideologically consistent” with their views and precludes accusations of hypocrisy.

No matter how reliable their takes on Ukraine, Palestine, and whatever else might be, their views on the latest Indo-Pak conflict should therefore be taken with lots of salt. This is important to keep in mind since Putin and Modi “emphasised the need to uncompromisingly fight terrorism in all its forms” during their call last week, which isn’t reflected by these top “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” who present themselves as interpreters of Russian foreign policy. 

Their support of Pakistan over India contradicts Russian interests.

All told, while opinions are mixed about who came out on top in the latest Indo-Pak conflict, India arguably won seeing as how it punished Pakistan for the Pahalgam terrorist attack by bombing multiple bases, the Indus Waters Treaty remains suspended, and a new military doctrine has entered into effect. Pakistan achieved no comparable outcomes despite its supporters’ claims. Even though it lost, Pakistan might not have learned its lesson, so a re-eruption of hostilities at some future time can’t be ruled out.