India Defied US Pressure To Dump Russia For These Five Reasons

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The common denominator is India’s rivalry with China…

Trump recently made a show of doubling his 25% tariffs on India as punishment for its continued purchase of Russian energy and military-technical equipment.

Influenced by Lindsey Graham, he expected that India would dump Russia after the costs of doing business with it spiked, the Kremlin would thus lose this important foreign revenue flow, and then Putin would make concessions to Ukraine in exchange for lifting these secondary sanctions in to avoid bankruptcy.

Here’s why India defied the US:

1. The “Voice Of The Global South” Can’t Bow To US Demands

India has presented itself as the “Voice of the Global South” since it hosted the first of these namesake summits in January 2023. It’s sought to play this role by virtue of being the most populous among them, commanding the largest economy of them all, and having the fast-growing one too. India is also one of the founders of the Non-Aligned Movement. If it bows to US demands, then it’ll cede leadership of the Global South to China, which India doesn’t consider to be part of this category of countries anymore.

2. Discounted Russian Energy Accelerates India’s Economic Rise

India is the world’s fastest-growing major economy and on pace to become the third-largest by 2028 due in no small part to its massive import of discounted Russian energy. Not only would India scramble to replace Russia’s one-third share of its oil supplies, which would lead to a surge in global prices that would decelerate its growth, but Russia would probably sell more oil to China at an even steeper discount to replace some of its lost revenue. That would be doubly bad for India’s objective interests.

3. India Can’t Defend Itself From China & Pakistan Without Russia

Most of India’s military equipment is still Soviet/Russian despite the decade-long trend of diversifying its defense suppliers and promoting indigenous production. India is therefore still reliant on Russian ammo and spare parts. Accordingly, it wouldn’t be able to defend itself from China and Pakistan without Russia, which is an unacceptable position to be in. In fact, some in India might suspect that the US wants to leave them at their mercy, perhaps as part of a Machiavellian deal to contain or even dismember India.

4. Trump Is Hellbent On Derailing India’s Rise As A Great Power

Building upon the above, this eponymous analysis here explains Trump’s geostrategic machinations vis-à-vis India as of late, which are predicated on subordinating it as vassal state. Frankly speaking, India is rising too fast and becoming too independent of a force to be reckoned with in global affairs for the US’ comfort, which fears that this will hasten the decline of its unipolar hegemony. Attempting to place India in a permanent position of dependence and vulnerability is one way to possibly avert this scenario.

5. India Can’t Allow Russia To Become China’s “Junior Partner”

The earlier points contextualize this one by highlighting the importance that Russia plays in India’s grand strategy. Even if India maintained military-technical ties with Russia, if it curtailed or cut off oil imports, then Russia would still likely become China’s “junior partner” due to the even greater economic-financial role that China would play for it. That could lead to the dangerous scenario of China pressuring Russia to curtail or cut off arms, ammo, and spares to India, thus placing it at China’s and Pakistan’s mercy.

As can be seen, the common denominator between these five reasons why India defied US pressure to dump Russia is its rivalry with China, which India calculated would inevitably benefit if it complied.

The grand strategic costs of allowing that to happen are considered to be much greater than the financial ones imposed by the US. In fact, the US might even lift some of the latter as part of a compromise with Russia during the upcoming Putin-Trump Summit, which would be an indisputable victory for India.