What Are The Chances Of A Food Stamp Collapse In November?

A classic saying among preparedness experts in the US is that America is capable of weathering many crises, but when the food stamps shut down all bets are off.  In other words, when the free stuff army loses their handouts, that’s when all hell breaks loose.

The US government spends over $100 billion on SNAP programs every year; the largest single food welfare project in the world.  It’s difficult to predict what an end to SNAP might look like. 

One can assume the worst and be ready for a “Walking Dead” disaster in which angry mobs run rampant.  Or, tensions might continue to simmer.  Many people might be forced to simply get a job, and the welfare subset could decide to adapt.  But they probably won’t.

Food banks offer short term relief, though, these programs can be easily overwhelmed in the event of a broad cancellation of EBT.  

In 2025 around 42 million people have tapped into federal SNAP benefits, which amounts to 12% of the population.  More than enough people to create chaos should they be politically weaponized to do so.  But what are the chances of food stamps actually being canceled? 

The longest federal shutdown in history occurred in 2018-2019.  It lasted 35 days and food stamps continued to remain available through the duration of the political standoff.  That said, around half of the staff of the USDA was on furlough which led to delays in new applications and renewals.  A shutdown would have to run for a substantial length of time beyond the record for SNAP benefits to completely vanish, right?

It really depends on Democrats.  A number of economists are warning that the nation’s largest “anti-hunger program” has a contingency fund of about $6 billion, but November benefits are expected to total around $8 billion. The USDA’s shutdown plan noted that funding is available in the event of a lapse, but if the current conditions hold, SNAP would ostensibly run out of cash in early November. 

BREAKING: Letters are being sent out from the Department of Agriculture directing states to pause EBT and SNAP benefits beginning in November due to the Government shutdown

The letter shows benefits will be paused

Democrats are about to cause millions to lose food assistance pic.twitter.com/AiqprI9jF9

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) October 16, 2025

At this time, the government shutdown has lasted 18 days, well below the record.  However, conditions for an extended shutdown have never been so numerous and the nation is quickly heading into the holiday season when the effects will be keenly felt. 

The Trump Administration is facing a rabidly hostile Democratic Party with no intention of compromise.  The Senate requires several of these Democrats to vote in favor of a funding package in order to secure a 60 member majority in tandem with Republicans, and this prospect is growing unlikely.  Keep in mind, Democrats have voted against temporary funding measures seven times. 

The crux of the conflict is over ACA benefits – Democrats demand that Trump continue subsidized health care for millions of illegal immigrants, who qualify for ACA as long as they declared asylum during the Biden Administration.  Trump and Republicans say no.  Democrats have spun a narrative that Trump is seeking to end benefits for millions of American citizens, but the reality is that conservatives want non-citizens removed from the rolls. 

Betting website Polymarket places the odds of the shutdown stretching into the middle of November at 38%, up from 10% a week ago.  Progressives have become even more unhinged than usual in the past year, making a diplomatic arrangement impossible.  Democrat party leaders and the establishment media act as truth filters, keeping left leaning people in the dark.  The world they see is astonishingly different from the world the rest of Americans see. 

Furthermore, Democrats may view a continuing shutdown as a useful crisis in their favor.  They have been successful in the past in scapegoating conservatives as the cause of nearly every budget impasse, even when Democrats were the clear culprit. 

Dems may want the shutdown to drag on, hoping that they can blame any negative consequences on the White House.  If Trump gives them an inch in negotiations, leftists will claim victory and paint the administration as weak.  If Trump refuses to bend, they will paint him as a monster who made little babies starve.   

That is to say, the odds of a food stamp collapse may be far higher than Polymarket currently predicts.