The United States Outgrows All Its Major Peers

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Never trust experts who criticise the U.S. economy and have argued for years that it should follow the policies of France, Germany, or Canada.

Statism never works, and France, Germany, Canada, the UK, and Japan are in stagnation, with bloated public sectors that hinder economic growth and excessive regulations and taxes that hurt jobs and investment.

The United States will deliver stronger economic growth than all its major advanced peers in 2025, with inflation, real wage growth, and unemployment figures that also outperform countries like Japan, the UK, Canada, France, and Germany.

In the United States, it is common to read negative remarks about the economy from the same mainstream economists who defended the implementation of European-style Keynesian policies. The results are evident. The United States is growing faster and in a healthier way than all its peers that followed Keynesian spending and tax policies.

Official figures indicate that the US published the fastest economic growth rate among advanced peers for 2025. The economy is growing at 3.8% annualised; the IMF estimates US real GDP growth at 2.0% for 2025, compared to only 0.2% for Germany, 0.7% for France, 1.1% for the UK, 1.2% for Canada, and 1.1% for Japan. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve of Atlanta expects 3.9% annualised growth in the US’s third quarter.

It is important to highlight the quality of this economic growth. The US economic development in 2025 is driven by strong consumer demand, technological strength, and continued investment and, more importantly, with a decline in government spending. In contrast, Japan, Germany, Canada, the UK, and France see weak investment, poor consumption growth, and sluggish external demand, whereas government spending is one of the key factors in “growth.”. Big government and high taxes are limiting their growth to less than 1%.

The US inflation rate is stable, while Japan and the UK see rising and accelerating figures in their consumer price index.

Annual US inflation settled at 3% in September and is expected to ease further in October. However, inflation in the UK remains at 3.8%, the highest in thirteen months. In Japan, consumer prices have risen to the highest level in a year and are expected to accelerate into 2026, according to Bloomberg Economics.​ While the US sees inflation stability and Truflation figures show an annualised rate of 2.25%, both the UK and Japan are suffering rising inflation and economic stagnation.​

The US labour market remains strong and is showing real wage growth, considering the decrease in government and immigration jobs. Federal employment in the US has declined through 2025, with government jobs dropping by 97,000 since January, but the average monthly increase in private sector jobs remains positive. Compared to its European peers and Japan, the US registers lower unemployment and a healthier mix of private sector job growth. Understanding the significant impact of lower immigration and government jobs is essential to analysing the US labour market’s strength correctly.

US real wage growth in 2025, at 1.5%, is almost double that of France, Germany, and the UK and much higher than in Japan, where the figure is negative.

If we compare the United States’ employment, real wage growth, inflation and GDP growth with Canada’s, the difference is striking. Government interventionism, massive regulation and high taxes, as well as a misguided immigration policy, have made Canada slump to stagnation and loss of jobs. Canada’s unemployment rate is twice the US rate, and its growth is less than half.

The combination of strong US GDP growth, improved inflation control, and strong domestic private labour market performance, reducing government spending and immigration jobs, put the United States significantly ahead of all its peers, proving that supply-side measures, tax reductions, and deregulation, as well as a reduction in government spending, drive economic growth and prosperity, while big government and high taxes only bring stagnation and a debt crisis.