France Records First Peacetime Natural Population Decline As Deaths Exceed Births

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

France recorded a negative natural population balance in 2025 for the first time since the end of the Second World War, according to the national statistics institute INSEE, as the number of deaths exceeded the number of births over the year.

INSEE estimates that 645,000 babies were born in France in 2025, a decline of 2.1 percent compared with 2024 and 24 percent fewer than in 2010, the last peak year for births. Over the same period, 651,000 people died, an increase of 1.5 percent year on year. The result was a negative natural balance of -6,000.

The statistics institute said the increase in deaths was due in particular to a severe winter flu epidemic at the start of the year, as well as, in some areas, episodes of intense summer heat. Despite this, life expectancy at birth continued to rise, reaching 85.9 years for women and 80.3 years for men in 2025, both up by 0.1 years and at historically high levels.

The decline in births was compounded by a further fall in fertility. The total fertility rate dropped to 1.56 children per woman in 2025, down from 1.61 in 2024, and the lowest level since the end of the First World War. INSEE noted that the number of women of childbearing age has not fallen and has even increased slightly in recent years, meaning the drop in births is attributed entirely to lower fertility. The average age at which women give birth to their first child rose to 31.2 years in 2025, compared with 29.6 years in 2005.

As of Jan. 1, 2026, France’s population was estimated at 69.1 million, an increase of 0.25 percent over the previous year. This growth was driven entirely by migration, with net migration provisionally estimated at plus 176,000 people. The population included 66.8 million people in metropolitan France and 2.3 million in the overseas departments.

The demographic shift is also reflected in the country’s age composition. Some 22 percent of the population was aged 65 or over at the start of 2026, almost the same proportion as those aged under 20. By comparison, in 2006, 16.4 percent of the population was 65 or over, while 25.1 percent was under 20.

Marriage numbers continued to rise. INSEE projects 251,000 marriages in 2025, including 244,000 between people of different sexes and 7,000 between people of the same sex. The number of civil partnerships, or PACS, was almost stable in 2024 compared with 2023, at around 197,000.

Les chiffres 2025 de la natalité viennent d’être publiés par l’INSEE, et ils sont catastrophiques.

Nombre de naissances, fécondité, désir d’enfants…

En un fil, on vous récapitule ce qu’il faut savoir sur la nouvelle donne démographique françaisepic.twitter.com/kuswGZlwlJ

— Hexagone – La France en chiffres (@Hexagone_org) January 13, 2026

Commenting on the figures, the outlet Hexagone described the 2025 birth data as “catastrophic,” noting that there were around 150,000 fewer births than in 2015 and calling 2025 a turning point in which, for the first time in peacetime, more people died in France than were born.

It added that even the most pessimistic fertility scenarios previously developed by INSEE and the National Institute for Demographic Studies had assumed a higher rate than that recorded in 2025.

“In 2021, INED produced 30 demographic projections for France. The most pessimistic of the 30 scenarios (the ultimate catastrophic scenario) projected an average of 1.69 children per woman in 2025. We learned today that France is at 1.56,” wrote one of its observers, Robin Nitot, on X.

A plummeting fertility rate is not an isolated problem for France; it is an existential crisis across Europe.

In April last year, Czechia reported a significant and sustained decline in its birth rate with a drop of around 12,000 births, pushing the annual total below the 100,000 mark. Its fertility rate fell to 1.66 after several years of gradual improvement.

In July, Germany also reported a rapidly declining birth rate, reaching a concerning 1.35 children per woman in 2023. However, the situation is even more critical for women with German citizenship, whose fertility rate has hit a 30-year low.

So, too, in Sweden, which recorded its lowest birthrate since 2003, with 99,000 babies born in 2024. The average age of first-time mothers was also over 30 for the first time, while in Poland, the birth rate has dropped to just 1.12.

“The total birth rate for Poland in 2024 may be the lowest in the whole of Europe (ex aequo with Spain) and amount to 1.12. This is the worst result in our modern history,” noted Andrzej Kubisiak, deputy director of the Polish Economic Institute, back in October 2024.

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