Crash landing?

The hits keep coming.

Last weekend the White House said Canada would see a 100% tariff on, like, everything if we did a deal with China. Trump called Carney our ‘governor’. Yesterday he told reporters, “Canada is not doing well. It’s doing very poorly.”

US State Department officials, it’s now reported, have had multiple talks with Alberta separatists – a direct intervention in domestic politics. On Friday a whole shift of workers at GM’s plant in Oshawa left for the last time, joining an equal number in support businesses. The automaker blames “an evolving trade environment” after the US imposed high tariffs on Canadian-made vehicles. GM is also pulling out of its Ingersoll operation. Stellantis says it won’t reopen its Brampton plant, and is building a new one across the border, as the president requested.

And, last night, this…

Cars, steel, lumber, planes – all whacked – and Trump is telling Canada who it can’t trade with, while courting our own domestic traitors and belittling our leader. Is it all part of a demented master presidential plan to annex the place? Remember that North American map he posted a picture of on Truth Social with the stars-and-stripes plastered all over our fair Dominion? First he drives us into recession… then helps the Wexit nutbars create a constitutional crisis… then sends Greg Bovino and his ICE thugs to finish us off?

Yikes. Down the rabbit hole we go.

And meanwhile one of the adults in the room – Bank of Canada boss Tiff Macklem ain’t helping much. He just told Reuters we face a new shock to the economy

“There is unusual potential for a new shock, a new disruption,” he said. “Geopolitical risks are elevated.” And by that he meant Greenland, Venezuela, Iran, NATO’s fissures, new tariffs, a global trade war and Trump’s ongoing attacks on the globe’s most important central bank. (He just picked Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair. He’s MAGA, wants ‘regime change’ at the Fed and Trump says he looks great on TV – “like out of central casting”.)

Macklem’s bank say Canada’s economy will barely grow next year or the year after. In fact, today’s numbers suggest we were recessionary in the final months of 2025. So many risks out there.

“We are feeling like there are more things that can go wrong around that forecast. That forecast is more vulnerable,” Macklem adds. “A Federal Reserve that is not delivering predictability isn’t going to be good for anybody.”

Okay, so Trump’s being prickly. The economy’s feeling it. The Alberta wingnuts think they can join Montana and be rich. Our sovereignty’s being assaulted. The central bank guy’s nervous. Auto workers are in a funk. Et, mon Dieu, que se passe-t-il au Québec?

We clearly need someone who can rub our tummies and mutter reassurances.

Let’s try Derek Holt, the bank economist with not only common sense but a stellar track record.

So, D, the big hurdle this year is the free trade deal between us, them and the Mexicans. Is this going to go sideways? Will Trump tear it up, making us incredibly vulnerable? Or is it all gonna be okay (rub, rub)?

“I don’t find the argument that the agreement will be torn up to resonate,” Holt says, pointing out that the integration of the Canadian and American economies is so deep and profound that US corporations (and workers) would suffer major economic damage if it failed.

Here are his odds for what happens with the deal:

• Tear it up (very low): A six-month letter of notice to withdraw would likely need to be passed by Congress which is not assured. If it were, then challenges could go to the Supreme Court, risking failure. The domestic lobby in the US is strongly supportive of USMCA.
• Roll it over (very low): Triggering the provision to merely extend for another 16 years is very unlikely in this environment.
• Annual reviews (40–50%): The agreement affords the opportunity to conduct annual reviews up to ten years max at which point parties need to decide if they’re in or out. That’s 2.5 administrations from now in the US. This scenario would drive persistent uncertainty, but without fundamentally jeopardizing the agreement.
• A deal (40–50%): There is a reasonable path to a deal perhaps before the midterms that combines security and trade issues.

Well, draw your own conclusions. Logic says Trump has to back off the ledge, stop hammering America’s pivotal trade partner and worry about domestic issues. Or, he’s a power-drunk megalomaniac determined to make money, remake the world, go down in history as expanding the USA and leave an embarrassing gilded ballroom behind.

China looks less weird every day.

About the picture: “This is Nova, an Australian Cattle Dog, doing what she loves most — playing fetch with a frisbee and a ball at the same time,” writes Austin, in Squamish. “We call her doughnut face when she does this, she can navigate surprisingly well in this configuration.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected]’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/01/30/crash-landing/