The confidence deficit

Veteran real estate broker Robert Ede says average prices could rocket ahead 1.09% this month. Or, they could tank by 2%.

Yup. That’s reality. Nobody knows. Not your local house-flogger. Not even the guys running the nation’s central bank.

When the Bank of Canada decided to keep its rate locked in at 2.25% yesterday (for the fifth time) it said if the Canada-US trade talks go sideways or Trump spanks us again, it might have to lower rates. Of course, if Trump’s war and oil prices fuel inflation, “”there may be a need for consecutive rises in the policy rate”.

So, yeah. Mortgages could go down. They could go up. Just like real estate values. And did we mention the stock market?

The big news this morning: producer prices in the US raged higher by 6.5% last month, suggesting the current consumer inflation rate (which has leapt to over 4%) is about to get a lot worse. In response, inexplicably, the American president said, “I love inflation.”

That’s a good thing. Because he just started the war again.

A deal with Iran looks distant now and oil prices will likely stay elevated for months – well into the autumn. Meanwhile Trump has again said, “We don’t need anything Canada has,” suggesting talks with Ottawa will go about as well as his dialogue with Tehran. And meanwhile we can’t even get that damn Gordie Howe bridge open.

So no wonder we’re running a little short on confidence. It seems like people are waiting for something big and ugly to happen.

“Never seen it like this,” are words being uttered a lot by experienced trades. The guy servicing my Generac said May was the first month in two decades when not a single new client ordered a generator. The fencing guy. The driveway pavers. The fireplace installer. The tree dude. Same story. (Thankfully there are fools like me still spending – and getting deals.)

The contrast between Main Street and the financial markets is stark. In the last twelve months the TSX is ahead by 30%, for example, despite all the volatility and doubt. US markets have also hit record high after record high, despite the resurgence of inflation, war and the actions of a rogue president. Hype over AI and now this bevy of tech IPOs have pushed aside the reality of stressed-out families and wary consumers.

Average wages in the States are lower than the rate of inflation, while SpaceX will create 4,4000 new millionaires among employees when it goes public tomorrow. The polarization in our world, in wealth and politics, has hit a record level.

So far Canada’s doing well. Good job stats. Lower inflation. Stable rates. Centrist leaders (except AB). Income gains. Cheaper houses.

What a contrast. America may be a dumpster fire between now and its key November elections. Europe is contending with a war that’s now lasted longer than WW1. The Middle East is downright dangerous. Populations are starving in Gaza, Cuba, Somalia and elsewhere. Ebola in the Congo. Riots in Belfast. Authoritarianism, protectionism, fascism and racism imbedded into so many countries.

Take a minute today to reflect on this nation. We are blessed.

Then go buy something.

About the picture: “Hey Garth, you have seen our flying Westie in previous submissions,” writes Paul. “This is Paisley living life to the fullest. We should all be so blessed!”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/06/11/the-confidence-deficit/