America Keeps Threatening the Lenders It Can’t Afford to Lose

Late last week, Congress and the White House established a new law authorizing the President to impose tariffs of up to 100% on any country that ranks among the five biggest buyers of Russian oil or gas.

This law had broad, bi-partisan support and passed with by a whopping 86-11 margin in the otherwise deadlocked Senate, and 262-159 in the House of Representatives.

Their big idea is to penalize anyone who supports Russia economically by buying their oil & gas, and that specifically singles out China and India— the biggest buyers of Russian crude.

In fairness, India and China aren’t buying Russian oil to help prop up Putin or assist him in winning the war. They don’t really care. They just like the fact that Russian oil is REALLY cheap right now. It’s a good deal, and they like scoring good deals for their country.

At the moment there is no international law preventing anyone from buying Russian oil & gas; this restriction is something the US wants to impose in order to force Russia into a peace over Ukraine.

And it may very well be a good idea in terms of bringing an end to the war in Ukraine. We make no judgment on the moral implications.

Unfortunately the world is not so black and white, especially when you have a $40 trillion national debt. When your fiscal situation is in such dire straits, you have to weight the pro’s and con’s.

And the con’s are numerous: given its gargantuan national debt and the need to borrow an ADDITIONAL $2 trillion per year just to finance the budget deficit and stay afloat, the US government has to rely on foreign creditors more than ever.

In short, America desperately needs cash-rich foreigners to continue buying US government bonds.

It’s a bit difficult to shove this rule down their throats and tell foreign countries, “We will force you to stop buying cheap Russian oil,” yet simultaneously ask those same countries to loan you hundreds of billions of dollars.

The strangest part is that this is nothing new.

Back in February 2022, days after Russia invaded Ukraine, the US and its allies froze about $300 billion of the Russian central bank’s reserves.

Again, whether it was justified is beyond the point. US government bonds had long been considered the safest asset on earth. But every central banker on the planet learned that day that US Treasury bonds were only safe as long as their country stayed on America’s good side.

That’s why foreign governments and central banks have been quietly diversifying away from US government bonds and buying gold… because no other government can freeze the physical gold in their own vaults.

In fact, for the first time in decades, the world’s central banks now hold more gold than they hold US Treasury securities.

China in particular has cut its Treasury holdings in half since 2013, and they’re now at their lowest level since 2008.

Japan, the biggest foreign lender of all, has seen its Treasury holdings fall every month since April.

At peak (in 2011), foreigners owned nearly half of all marketable US Treasury bonds. Now foreigners’ share of Treasury securities is down to just over 30%.

That’s a fairly slow burn over 15 years; it’s not panic selling. But it’s a clear and obvious trend.

These same foreign nations have also been openly discussing how to rely less on the US financial system.

The BRICS countries, led by China, India, Russia, and Brazil, met in Delhi earlier this month and agreed to settle more of their trade in their own currencies.

This is a big deal; if India starts accepting Chinese yuan, or Russia accepts Indian rupee, these nations by definition won’t need to hold as many US dollars. And a decline in demand for US dollars translates into less demand to hold dollar-denominated assets like US government bonds.

Xi Jinping arrived at the White House yesterday, and he came to negotiate on trade as the leader of one of America’s three largest creditors.

China has serious leverage; even though they have been selling their Treasury bonds slowly over time, they still own a ton of them. And if Xi wanted to, he could dump them in a heartbeat and cause a complete collapse of the bond market. Interest rates would skyrocket.

To be clear, such a move would wound China as well. But America would be hurt the most. It’s a nuclear option he could exercise, and it gives him real negotiating power.

America seems to think it’s still the 1990s when everyone was begging to buy US government bonds… which is exactly what gave them the leverage to be able to weaponize the US dollar.

That is simply no longer the world we live in. US finances are incredibly weak. And every time America tries to flex its US dollar power over the financial system, more foreign lenders walk away.

It’s not clear to me if anyone in Washington even understands this reality. No one seems to be questioning, “Will this action increase or decrease foreigners’ demand to buy US dollars and US government bonds?”

And I doubt anyone is really doing any real analysis to weight the benefits of, say, peace in Ukraine, against the potential costs of losing more foreign lenders.

By the way, if you’re thinking, “Big deal, America can finance its own deficits,” it cannot.

The entirety of ALL net private savings in the US, i.e. the total amount that corporations and households manage to save, is only about $2.2 trillion each year. The budget deficit for FY2026 is projected to be about $2.1 trillion.

So basically the US economy would need to dump 95% of its total net savings into US government bonds, leaving just $100 billion to finance EVERYTHING ELSE in the economy, from data centers to mortgages to every other investment.

This is why the US needs foreigners so much. When you burn up that much money, you can’t afford to turn away any lender.

If they keep alienating foreigners, there will essentially be only one lender remaining— and that’s the Federal Reserve, which has the ability to create money out of thin air.

We all saw how that works during the pandemic, when the Fed created roughly $5 trillion to finance all of the debt-fueled government bailouts. The result that money creation was 9% inflation.

This is why we continue to write that real assets make so much sense.

The Fed can create money by the trillion, and the government can borrow to oblivion. Neither can print an ounce of gold or a barrel of oil. And that’s why real assets tend to hold their value, and often climb, exactly when paper money is falling apart.

Owning a piece of the companies that produce real assets— metals, energy, productive technology— is a great way to protect yourself from higher prices and inflation.

P.S. Since 2022, Schiff Sovereign’s investment research service, Strategic Assets, has focused on exactly those companies: the metals, energy, food, and ships an economy actually runs on.

A company gets featured only when it is already profitable, carries little or no debt, and trades cheap against the cash it is generating. Two precious metals producers on our research list are up more than 300% and nearly 400%, and earlier this year we locked in gains of more than 10x on a small silver producer.

You can learn more about Strategic Assets here.

Source

Simon Black is an international investor, entrepreneur and permanent traveler. His daily letter is both educational and entertaining, and we suggest that those who want unbiased, actionable information about global opportunities sign up for Sovereign Man’s free, actionable newsletter at http://www.SovereignMan.com.

From Simon Black of SovereignMan.com

Source: https://www.schiffsovereign.com/investing/america-keeps-threatening-the-lenders-it-cant-afford-to-lose-155923/