A recession on the horizon?
If we were to see…inflation moving down quickly, or more or less in line with expectations, growth remains let’s say reasonably strong and the labour market remains consistent with its current condition, then I would think that a rate cut could be on the table at the September meeting. If inflation were to prove sticky and we were to see higher readings from inflation, disappointing readings, we would weigh that along with the other things.
I don’t now think of the labour market in its current state as a likely source of significant inflationary pressures. So, I would not like to see material further cooling in the labour market.
Financial markets have been rattled by the prospect of weaker growth. The key questions for investors are:
- Is a rate cut too little, too late to stave off a downturn?
- Has market psychology turned and bad news is now bad news?
The full post can be found here.
Source: http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2024/08/a-recession-on-horizon_02056380413.html
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