ES Morning Update October 16th 2025

I’ve modified the wave count a little as I think we are going to do part of the “My lean wave count” from yesterdays post, as market is looking like it’s following that path the closest… meaning the “The crash wave count” chart now has low odds of playing out. The market could be accelerating the timeline some too as on the “My lean wave count” chart I think we could complete the larger C wave down by tomorrow or next Monday, instead of the last week of this month.

It’s still the same target zone of 6400 on the ES, and should still complete the even larger wave 4 down. It will then setup the market for a powerful rally into the first week of November where we could see a higher high and complete the even larger wave 5 that everyone is looking for 7400+ to happen. I don’t know if that is going to play or not?

I doubt it though as I think we’ll be lucky to scratch out a slightly higher high, and the tariff wars between the US and China are getting more and more heated, and the government shutdown isn’t looking likely to be resolved either. I don’t think Trump is going to back down from China, and the Democrats aren’t going to give an inch either. I suspect both parties are going to let the market fall apart and we won’t see the Fed come in with massive QE until we are much, much lower.

Without it I just don’t see a blow off top happening into early November. Assuming we drop to the 6400′s in the next few days, I think the final wave 5 up will be a tough one that just uses trapped bears for fuel to keep the squeeze going. I don’t think the smart money will buy, as they will most likely just wait for the double top to get hit (maybe a pierce high to take out the last bear?) where they will short the crap out of the market.

Anyway, that’s all just guessing with the politics, but it does seem likely. Plus the technicals support it as the market is way more overbought on the bigger time frames and it’s only going to be the shorter time frames that give the market the bounce after one more pullback. We could still see a crash happen, but not until after the last higher high. I have a good reason to think it will be on November 6th, but let’s get past this week and next before I go into to much detail on it.

Have an blessed day.