The Possible Outcomes

New policy approaches being conducted by the US Administration mirrors past policy in putting the interests of the United States ahead of those of its adversaries and allies, with possible outcomes remaining to be seen. While likely a result of local midterms being a possible barrier to future policy, the rapid exposure of US policy in the Americas and abroad will probably change the path of mostly failed long term policies to date.

The removal of the leader of Venezuela and head of much of the narco-terror in the region has forced the remaining Chavistas in Venezuela to play ball with the US Administration. While suffering under sanctions, Venezuela’s oil industry was unable to properly modernise their oil and gas production, many facilities once belonging to US energy companies. The US, instead of taking over as they did in Iraq, has chosen a path of self determination with outside pressure to keep the controlling systems in Venezuela in place, while edging them towards a more Western oriented position. The hope is that Venezuelans will move the country towards a healthy state, starting with free elections where Venezuela can change towards its natural path of a traditional democracy.

With Venezuelans being one of the largest refugee populations worldwide due to the Chavez/Maduro regime, many would return to rebuild and redevelop the country if given the opportunity. With an organised and well planned out opposition in Venezuela, the country has been ready for a generation to return to its natural state. Unlike many other states, the traditional structure of Venezuela existed with checks and balances and an independent judiciary, a structure that had always been in place in modern Venezuela until it was corrupted by the rise of Chavismo in the late 1990s. Step by step, we will see if Venezuela can move past the current regime, but still it is not safe to openly challenge the regime on the streets, an issue that should be addressed promptly by the United States.

Iran’s mass protests is the sixth of these kinds of movements to take to the streets in Iran since 2009. In this instance however, the US Administration has voiced its support for a Free Iran, openly supports the opposition movement, and has made it clear by past military actions and recent statements that the tolerance for regime terror is greatly reduced. The lack of support for all minority groups in the Middle East in the last two decades has lead to extreme movements and violence in the region where some of the oldest communities in the region have been targeted for extermination. During this time, with an exception in some extreme cases, Western leaders and media have worked to erase the mention of the existence of these indigenous groups to Western audiences, a move that left the 2009 protesters to be brutalised by Iran’s regime at the time.

While there has been a slight pause in recent actions, it is likely the case that actors in the region on the side of Free Iranians are unsure of the outcome as there is not a recognizable organised opposition on he ground that can take power from the regime as exists in Venezuela. Iran’s true allies will give all support, but it is important that a change in the Government comes from Iranians and goes directly to Iranians so it is a legitimate power structure that operates in the best interests of the country, and not for nations or interests abroad. It is likely the case that allies of a Free Iran are waiting on a leadership plan inside of the country, despite having a strong voice for a Free Iran externally coming from the family of the former Shah of Iran. The most important measure the West can take is to show its full support for the movement in Iran, as in every other of the five past protest movements the Iranian people, especially their women and girls, were intentionally forgotten by Western powers. It seems that the real victims of divisive policies are always the women, and always the girls, and no society can claim any legitimacy if it cannot protect their wives, daughters and children. All such regimes need to fall.