Saron DCNN8228 – Very poor provenance, unusual sample points and uneven distribution.

52.012925, -4.369967 Met Office CIMO Assessed Class 4 Archived Temperature readings from 1/10/1988

Saron is a small village in a relatively sparsely populated area of southwest Wales with the nearest modest sized town of Newcastle Emlyn about 4 miles to the northwest. This region is exceptionally well served by Met Office weather stations with a hugely disproportionate number of sites relative to its climatological region. This Saron site is of limited, if any, forecasting purposes but does demonstrate how selective sampling can slew derived climate data. This post is to evaluate the area as much as the individual site and how it is remarkably different from other parts of the UK.

Firstly the site is CIMO assessed as Class 4 along with almost half of all Met Office sites. The image below indicates 100 metre , 30 metre and 10 metre radius circles showing it cannot be rated any higher than 4. The site is heavily wind shaded from all compass points and reminiscent of Liscombe for “McDonalds” syndrome of “walling in” rural sites. There is no anemometer at this site which is probably just as well as even on a 10 metre high pole it would be unlikely to register free wind.

Saron is a manually observed station with a highly commendable observation record. Only back in 1992 were there any significant number of missing readings and, in being an exact month’s duration, I suspect this was a transcription issue rather than lack of readings. The standard Liquid in Glass thermometer was replaced in 2017 almost certainly with the original screen and replaced with a Platinum resistance thermometer and data logger from 23/11/2017. There are no overlapping readings with LIGT readings for maximums having stopped 19/9/2107. This period lack of maximum readings appears to be common practise on changeover from LIGT to PRT even though the swap over seems to be only a single day process as demonstrated at Gartocharn.

The huge problem, though is the very dubious provenance of the site. It is difficult to imagine the observer was happy with the historic comings and going around the screen. Images going back a long way regularly indicate the current clear site was anything but the norm. The area appears to have been a general agricultural dumping ground with extensive vehicle parking, rubbish tips and a well used trackway running close to the screen. This image from 2005 shows an unregulated site from which readings could never be considered reliable or accurate, though, as I will soon be revealing regarding other more prestigious sites, this rarely seems to unduly concern the modern day Met Office.

With no disrespect to those operating this site, its historical data is worthless for any genuine climate recording under such circumstances. Unfortunately the Met Office holds different views and indeed seems to seek out such low grade sites particularly in southwest Wales and keeps adding to its questionable portfolio such as at Whitesands. Below is an 18 mile radius circled area of Wales – bear in mind the Met office claims the following but clearly does not even get close to meeting its claims.

“Weather stations are found throughout the UK, typically spaced about 40 km apart, allowing for effective tracking of weather systems such as low pressure and frontal movements. Their locations are carefully chosen to ensure that measurements are representative of the wider area and not unduly influenced by local factors. For instance, stations are often found in open spaces like airports, but equipment is placed at internationally agreed distances from runways to avoid interference.

Consistency is vital for both short-term forecasts and long-term climate records. To maintain this, weather stations must adhere to strict criteria set by international meteorological organisations. These standards cover aspects such as grass cover and the need for clear space, ensuring that readings are not affected by buildings, trees, or other non-meteorological influences.“

Here is just how many currently operational weather stations the Met Office operates in this notably small area. Obviously forecasting purposes require numerous “early warning” points for prevailing westerly systems but surely climate recording does not.

Aberport,Whitchurch, Saron, Whitesands, Scolton Country Park, Dale Fort, Milford Haven Conservancy Board, Castlemartin, Tenby and Pembey Sands are all in the index. 10 weather stations, plus there are no fewer than SIX location specific long term “climate averages” in this area as per this map below. Rather a lot of these “climate averages points” for such a small area especially considering their “life spans”. Carmarthen, Brawdy, Milford Haven, Aberporth, Tenby and Pembry Sands are shown

These “averages” stations include Carmarthan and Brawdy both of which closed down in 1992 making almost the entirety of the 1991 to 2020 averages derived from “other” unspecified stations. In the case of Pembry Sands this site only opened in 1993 but has full 1961 to 1990 data available prior to when it even came into existence. Consider this data below for reference later.

Station: Pembrey Sands

Climate period:  1961-1990 

Month	Maximum temperature (°C)	Minimum temperature (°C)	Days of air frost (days)	Sunshine (hours)	Rainfall (mm)	Days of rainfall ≥1 mm (days)	Monthly mean wind speed at 10 m (knots)
January	7.48	1.89	5.88	–	113.26	15.87	12.78
February	7.33	1.80	5.77	–	86.81	13.40	12.20
March	9.75	2.86	2.97	–	91.45	14.00	12.57
April	11.89	4.04	1.08	–	58.94	10.73	11.36
May	15.32	6.59	0.07	–	67.42	12.03	13.27
June	17.46	9.51	0.00	–	79.16	10.00	10.69
July	19.43	11.64	0.00	–	73.28	7.97	10.68
August	19.24	11.56	0.00	–	88.42	12.43	9.93
September	17.54	9.55	0.00	–	83.54	11.47	12.14
October	14.31	8.22	0.11	–	117.04	13.97	12.06
November	10.53	4.39	2.14	–	117.54	15.33	13.10
December	8.36	2.85	4.64	–	115.76	16.60	13.13
Annual	13.25	6.27	22.67	–	1092.62	153.80	–

Of note from these climate averages stations for southwest Wales is that whilst Milford Haven only shows a sixty year increment in mean minimum of 0.59°C, Pembrey Sands manages a 0.84°C increment – an astonishing 0.25°C difference between them despite (because of?) the first 30 years of Pembrey’s figures being 100% artificially derived. Perhaps just as remarkable is that the same 60 year period for Carmarthen (closed 1992) shows a maximum increment of 0.9°C whilst Pembrey only opened in 1993 only manages 0.61°C a difference of 0.39°C. I find it quite amazing how discriminatory these CO2 molecules can be in achieving such remarkable differences in “Anthropogenic Climate Change” over such small distances apart…….or perhaps there are other reasons such as mathematically modelled conjuring tricks involved.

However, As I pointed out in the review of Castlemartin similar sized areas in other parts of the UK display very different distribution patterns of official weather stations. Below is that same 18 mile radius circled area but in Northumberland instead.

Wallington, Morpeth:Cockle Park and Class 5 Junk Albemarle with only 1 location specific long term climate averages station for the whole area – yes 21st century installed Albemarle.

Despite Morpeth being well over a centenarian and continuously at the same site, the Met Office ignores it for “Long Term” climate data and instead opts for Class 5 Junk Albemarle which only came into being in 2003. So how does this same sized but comparatively much less well represented area compare for 60 year climate averages? Lets look at that data for 1961 to 1990 for Albemarle – after all the Met Office managed to derive figures for Pembrey Sands well before its genesis. This is what it compares to Pembrey’s 1961 to 1990 period above:

Station: Albemarle

Climate period: 1961-1990 

Month	Maximum temperature (°C)	Minimum temperature (°C)	Days of air frost (days)	Sunshine (hours)	Rainfall (mm)	Days of rainfall ≥1 mm (days)	Monthly mean wind speed at 10 m (knots)
January	–	–	–	–	64.40	–	–
February	–	–	–	–	44.10	–	–
March	–	–	–	–	58.50	–	–
April	–	–	–	–	49.20	–	–
May	–	–	–	–	55.10	–	–
June	–	–	–	–	53.60	–	–
July	–	–	–	–	58.80	–	–
August	–	–	–	–	75.60	–	–
September	–	–	–	–	63.70	–	–
October	–	–	–	–	59.00	–	–
November	–	–	–	–	67.20	–	–
December	–	–	–	–	60.80	–	–
Annual	–	–	–	–	710.00	–	–

Is this absence of any temperature averages a new thing? Well no they used to be shown but the Met office has seen fit to delete many station’s data from its site – they seem to have a habit of deleting uncomfortable data (then denying they do) when the Talkshop calls it into question. Unfortunately I have not been able to screen capture everything for keeping records but I certainly recall looking up Albemarle’s data when reviewing before and it was there then. It is also worth noting that the likes of Charlwood (a.k.a. the end of the Gatwick runway) have similarly been retained on the Long Term Location specific webpage but the pre-existance data removed.

This all seems to be coming down to a clever little covert game. The Met Office admits all of its operational sites contribute to the compilation of historic climate averages. Thes stations are very much a “moveable feast” with stations opening, closing and moving over time but, of course, ultimately they have to use readings from those stations which actually exist at any given time. By simply varying the locations of new ones to open, which to close or relocate, and the density of sites in any given area then the system can readily be “gamed” to produce any figures you want for any reason you want..

I am confident everyone will agree that Northumberland has a very much cooler climate than the mild southwest of Wales, by shifting emphasis of area representation from cooler to warmer it is very easy to demonstrate warming especially when the black box devices used to create those averages are hidden from view.

I will be doing more of this area analysis in future as it is quite clear this is not a “level playing field”.

Source: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2026/06/17/saron-dcnn8228-very-poor-provenance-unusual-sample-points-and-uneven-distribution/