Fantasy Preview: Lamar Jackson

Welcome back to Ravens Fantasy Preview! Over the last two days, we’ve looked at what might be in the cards for Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews in 2024, and today we move on to see what this season has in store for Lamar Jackson.

As you know, Jackson is coming off an impressive MVP campaign that saw him lead the Ravens to a 13-4 regular season record and a big win over Houston in the divisional round before ultimately falling to Kansas City in the AFC Championship. That success saw Lamar finish as QB4 in the 2023 fantasy season, not a bad ranking at all. With that, let’s dive into some of his numbers from last season and where he’s ranked pre-draft.

Player Breakdown: Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL

2024 Rank (ESPN): 49 overall, QB5

2023 Output: 331.2 PPR Points (20.7 per game)

2023 Stats: 457 attempts (67.2% completions), 3678 yards, 24 TDs, 7 INTs – 148 carries, 821 yards, 5 TDs

According to the Worldwide Leader, Jackson just cracks the top 50 of all players heading into the season despite a very good fantasy campaign last year. Sure, there are flaws in his game, but #49 seems a bit low for a guy who finished in the top 5 of his position group last year and took home a second MVP award. Jackson still has a lot of upside in the fantasy world.

The main reason #8 is such a great option at quarterback for your fantasy roster is simply because of the way PPR scoring is set up. In most leagues, quarterbacks earn just 0.04 points for every passing yard, but they pick up 0.1 points per rushing yard. Think about it this way: to score one fantasy point, a given QB can either throw for 25 yards or rush for 10 yards. When you have a quarterback that can really take off and run, the fantasy points pour in quickly. The same number of points are scored for a QB getting out of the pocket and scampering for 20 yards and for the same player having to pick apart the defense for 50 passing yards. You tell me which sounds easier to get.

Plus, quarterbacks are rewarded with more points for rushing touchdowns than passing scores. Every TD on the ground is worth six fantasy points but throwing it to the end zone scores just four (again, check your league’s settings). That doesn’t sound like a huge difference, but it could be what wins you a close matchup. I like to think about it mathematically; after all, this game is really just a lot of formulas. One rushing touchdown scores the same number of points as a passing touchdown and 50 passing yards. Jalen Hurts racked up a ton of fantasy points last season because of the Brotherly Shove. All he had to do was dive a yard – or less! – across the goal line to add six to his matchup total. It’s an incredible advantage to have a quarterback who’s able to take off and run, especially if he can punch it into the end zone.

Jackson is the epitome of a quarterback who’s able to take off and run. Last season, he carried the rock nearly 150 times for an impressive 821 yards and five scores. With the addition of Henry, his rushing volume will in all likelihood decrease. However, I expect Jackson to again record 800+ yards on the ground, mostly due to the return of “skinny Lamar.”

Much has been made of Jackson’s lost weight this offseason. Despite being at 230 pounds just two seasons ago, he claims he’s now down to 205, which will do nothing but make it harder for defenders to bring him down. Because the Ravens now have the King at their disposal, I interpret Lamar’s smaller frame to mean that he won’t have to take too many short inside runs. Now, he’ll be able to showcase his elite wheels by taking more outside runs, which will allow him to operate where he’s at his best: in the open field. I anticipate Lamar breaking off some big chunks of yardage on the ground this year, and he will be a much more explosive runner than in 2023. It’s reasonable to expect between 5-7 rushing TDs in 2024, and that output will go a long way toward helping you win your matchups.

It isn’t all sunshine and rainbows for Jackson, however. I have multiple concerns for him from a fantasy perspective heading into the season, and the most pressing of these is his injury history. 2023 was the first season Lamar started every game he needed to since 2019, and his risky play style doesn’t assure me that he’ll do that again in 2024. In fact, that combined with his propensity to get sick, makes me almost certain that he’ll miss some amount of time this season. And that’s not something I’m overly comfortable with if I’m spending a relatively high pick on my quarterback. Jackson’s slimmed-down frame only increases his odds of injury, and it certainly feels like he’s tempting fate by losing that much weight. The reason he bulked up to 230 in the first place was to… help prevent getting hurt!

Plus, the passing production just isn’t there from a fantasy standpoint. Jackson was only 17^th in the league in pass attempts last season, averaging around 28 per game. This is certainly an improvement over previous seasons, but he’s still not throwing the ball a whole lot. Sure, he makes up for it in rushing production, but I’d like to see him score some more points through the air.

Will I go after Lamar in the draft? No, but it has nothing to do with him. Jackson will again be a top-5 fantasy finisher at quarterback, but QB is such a deep position group that you’d be better off spending a fourth or fifth round pick on a wide receiver or running back. Quality starting quarterbacks are going to be available late into the draft; 2023 QB6 Brock Purdy, for example, has an ADP of 82. Fantasy football is all about resource allocation, and you’d be much better investing your top-tier resources in a different position group.

Thanks for tuning into Day 3! Come back tomorrow for a deep dive into a very intriguing pass-catcher, Zay Flowers.

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