Anatomy of a Nearly-Indefensible Red Zone Play

Ravens Pass-Catchers Through 15 Games

For Christmas, the Ravens are gifting us with a meaningful game for the division.  Just two weeks ago that seemed out of reach.  It still might not work out – both the Christmas games could go the wrong way – but in the spirit of the season, it’s worth celebrating the chance itself.  And wow is it worth celebrating beating the Steelers!  So sick of that damn team.  Just not having to hear their fans bleat about how they’ve won X in a row vs the Ravens, that all by itself is the gift that keeps on giving.  Thanks Ravens!

Short turnaround this week!  So here are some notes on a few plays and updated team stats, before I go finish my Christmas shipping.

First TD to Likely

Brian Baldinger called out on Xitter the tactical ingenuity that Todd Monkey showed in the red zone Saturday to dial up the first Ravens TD of the game, the one in the 1st quarter, to Likely.

https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1870814629259341917

One thing Baldy may have missed is that the Ravens ran this same exact play in San Francisco last year in the red zone, for a 3rd-quarter TD to Zay Flowers.  Let’s compare the two plays:

One thing that’s amusing is that last year in his weekly press conference after the San Francisco game, Monken said that when they worked on that play in practice they “never get to” Flowers.  The Niners didn’t play it like the Ravens defense did in practice, so the receiver the offense didn’t think would come open, did.  I guess the Steelers D played it more like the Ravens defense did – and gave up the TD to Likely.

A well designed play has options.  The defense will take something away, but that leaves something else open.  Here we see two different defenses reacting differently to Flowers and Likely.  Each defense takes one and forgets the other, and gets burned.

But that’s not all that’s there!  I want to isolate three defenders on each team, in the last pictures from each sequence.

• The Niners have a player covering Likely near the 10-yd-line (obscured), a player covering the swing pass to Gus near the 15, and a player on the end of the defensive line facing a double-team block.
• The Steelers have a player in no-man’s-land near the 10, not covering Likely, a player in Lamar’s face leaping to try to bat the pass, and a big guy coming free of a block on the 15 at the right hash.

Those are sort of “the same three defenders” on both teams, in terms of their responsibilities on this play.  There’s three of them, and between them they have to handle Likely, the Running Back, and Lamar.  And they’re screwed!

On the play vs the Niners, if they have Flowers covered, then there’s one defender to handle Lamar and Gus.  Whatever he does will be wrong.  Lamar can press that hole and run for the end zone.  If that guy squeezes down, Lamar can loft it over him to Gus, who will have a head of steam and a blocker in front (Likely).  If that guy stays wide to account for Gus, Lamar is gone.  Good luck keeping him out of the end zone.

On the play vs Pittsburgh, the Steelers are attacking Lamar with big #90, to get it out of Lamar’s hands.  That was their strategy all night long.  They did it on all the read-option plays, giving Lamar a clear “give” read.  Lamar gave, and Derrick Henry rumbled for 160.  On this play, that leaves one defender near the numbers at about the 10-yd-line, to handle Likely and Henry.  Here it’s Minkah Fitzpatrick.  Whatever he does will be wrong.   I mean, Saturday night he did nothing: that was clearly wrong.  But if he drops to take away Likely, then Henry gets the swing pass about 12 yards from the end zone with a head of steam.  That’s probably a touchdown.

Options.  This is a gorgeous play design.  You can see how it dovetails with the Ravens personnel.  This might look good on any teams whiteboard, but you need two good 2-way Tight Ends just to line up for it.  One of them is playing Left Tackle for a few seconds!  The other is running the wheel route. You need a Running Back who is a threat to take the toss and could do damage if he gets the swing pass.  Two good Wide Receivers on the right side of the formation, drawing coverage.  And a Quarterback who can react to the quickly-changing picture.

We’ll see that play again.  It’ll be interesting to see how defenses try to play it.

Another Monken Call

In the first quarter, Alex Highsmith blew by Ronnie Stanley for a strip-sack of Lamar.  In Q3, at the 3:16 mark, Highsmith blew by Stanley again, and I was screaming at the TV “Watch out!”

Turned out Todd Monken and Lamar were way ahead of me:

Great play call to counter that pass rush.  Throw the screen in behind it.  Monken is such a professional.  Love watching this crew work.

Anatomy of an Interception

It was 20 years ago, almost exactly, that I learned what it meant for an Interception to be a receiver’s fault.  I know the exact date: October 10 of 2004.  I went with my dad to the Ravens-Redskins game at FedEx Field that day.  This was the game where Ed Reed opened the scoring for the Ravens, causing a sack-fumble and then returning it for a Touchdown.  I was watching Ed on that play, because he suddenly moved toward the line right before the snap – caught my eye – and the whole thing unfolded in slow motion.

Anyway.  Kyle Boller threw a bazillion interceptions in the game; but the defense held the Reskins to 10, and on back-to-back possessions the Ravens got Reed’s TD and a punt-return TD to take the lead.  One of Boller’s interceptions was NOT his fault.  I had a great angle along the QB’s view toward the receiver, and after Boller released the ball the receiver stopped.  Had he kept running, the ball would have landed in his hands; but because he wasn’t there, it hit a Defense Back right in the chest.  I went, “Oh, THAT’s what it means when they say an Interception is the receiver’s fault!”  (I was embarrassingly old to just understanding that, but never mind.)

That brings us to Saturday’s game.  Lamar threw his fourth Interception of the season, intended for Bateman.  Here’s the play:

NOT SO FAST LAMAR!

Minkah Fitzpatrick picks off Lamar Jackson in the red zone.

Lamar to throw an INT was +115. @BetMGM
pic.twitter.com/pWiI3oNsfy

— Covers (@Covers) December 21, 2024

So whose fault was it?  Lamar’s or the receiver’s?  At the podium for his post-game press conference, Lamar said he could have played better, and referenced the interception.

Lamar Jackson: “I feel like I could’ve played better. That interception really got me mad still. We don’t turn the ball over, we win almost any game. That one turnover couldn’t been the difference, but shoutout to Marlo and the defense because those guys played lights out all…

— Sarah Ellison (@sgellison) December 22, 2024

But Lamar is a leader who takes responsibility.  (He doubled-down on that later in the presser.)  Of course he SAID it was his fault.  But was it really?  Here’s a still of Lamar in the act of throwing – notice that Bateman appears to be running:

And here is an instant later, with the ball in the air (red circle). Bateman is planting his foot to come to a sudden stop.

The Defensive Back behind Bateman keeps moving, basically runs Bateman’s route for him, and winds up catching the pass in stride.  Ouch.  Here’s Todd Monken reacting in real time, evidently yelling “Bate!  Bate!”

After Lamar Jackson threw his interception against the Steelers as Rashod Bateman stopped his route, Todd Monken let his thoughts be known on the play

“BATE! BATE!” pic.twitter.com/PBko5CqXm2

— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) December 22, 2024

So, that seems pretty definitive.  Back in Week 12 I showed gifs of all (then 3) Lamar interceptions on the year.  And the crazy thing was, each one of them hit his receiver’s hands before the defender took it away!  Now we have this one where the receiver stops on his route.  Lamar has thrown 37 TDs on the year; and zero interceptions that were his fault or bad throws or “turnover worthy plays”.  That’s insane.

I’m curious what Bateman was seeing that led him to stop there.  He’s NOT settling into a hole in the zone: there’s no defender in front of him that his route would take him into.  I have one idea.  If we go back three or four steps earlier in Bateman’s route, he’s looking right at the Middle Linebacker.  And this is what he sees:

That dude is coming on a blitz!  So Bateman knows the Steelers have seven rushers, and the Ravens only have six blockers.  The six are five O-linemen + Derrick Henry, who is not known for being a passing-down back and regularly handling blitz pickup responsibilities.  I bet Bateman is thinking that Lamar is “hot,” and Bate needs to provide a hot read for him to outlet to.  So he stops behind the blitzer, giving Lamar a target so he can “throw into the blitz.”

It’s exactly the wrong response.  Lamar is way ahead of Bateman in processing the situation, and already has a solution.  Bateman, in trying to help, breaks it.

This is why teams blitz.  Pressure breaks pipes.  The blockers do a fine job picking up the blitz, and Lamar has read it perfectly: but with that much pressure, someone is liable to screw up.  On this occasion, someone was Bateman.  But I will say, at least this is not lack of effort or lack of awareness or poor technique or general stupidity.  If I understand this correctly, Bateman saw the situation and proactively worked to help his quarterback.  That gives coaches something to work with.  Bate & Lamar & Monken can talk it out and handle it better next time.

One reason the Ravens Took a chance with Diontae

Now that the story of Diontae Johnson’s season with the Ravens has ended, it might make sense to look at the logic behind the acquisition.

Ken Filmstudy frequently points out that, in a salary-capped league, the way you win – the ONLY way to win – is to get more production per dollar of cap spent than the other teams get.  This is a truth that’s obvious when you say it out loud, but it’s not something we think about very often.  We fans are usually concerned with matchups and does our team have enough pass rush or enough at Wide Receiver, that kind of thing.  But bottom line, you gotta get more “win” out of your cap dollars than the other teams get out of their cap dollars.  That’s it.  That’s NFL football.

We fans had our frustrations with the Greg Roman Offense; but one thing that offense does very well is get production out of non-premium players.  Backup Running Backs, Fullbacks, blocking Tight Ends: all of those positions have a role in the Greg Roman offense.  They help with ball-control, those long stifling drives that leave opposing quarterbacks throwing tantrums on the bench.  Score, keep the other team’s offense off the field, and save money.  It’s a viable strategy: Roman’s teams have won a lot of games over the years, including here.

We fans chafe when the Ravens go cheap at Wide Receiver; but again, the name of the game is in-game productivity per dollar of salary cap expenditure.  You gotta make the most of your cap.

A couple weeks ago I was running numbers for a discussion on the RSR forum.  I was looking at Wide Receivers and trying to rank them by “production for cap money.”  It turned out that using volume numbers wasn’t very informative.  Basically all the (good) Wide Receivers on rookie contracts give the most production per cap dollar.  That includes Zay Flowers; but also Ja’Marr Chase is on a rookie deal.  Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ladd McConkey, Malik Nabors and Brock Bowers (Tight End) all have over 900 receiving yards this season and are all on rookie contracts.  It just wasn’t very informative; of course getting a great receiver in the draft helps, but we already knew that.

But then I had the bright idea of bringing some of my YTS stats into the picture.  I forget exactly what I did – didn’t save the spreadsheet – but I think I multiplied YTS by targets to get an “effective yards” sort of stat.  That’s similar to something Aaron Schatz did at Football Outsiders, for “effective yards” for Running Backs.  And here’s where it gets interesting: when I put that “effective yards” stat in the numerator, and cap number (or maybe it was season cash outlay) in the denominator, guess which player popped up as the very most productive player per dollar?  Yep, Diontae Johnson.

It didn’t work out.  Maybe it couldn’t have worked out: I had not followed his career, but after the Ravens got him I saw plenty of comments on social media that Johnson had a reputation for trouble.  I didn’t know anything about that – still don’t, really.  But when you think in terms of maximizing productivity on a finite cap, taking a flyer on Johnson is a very understandable gamble.  The Ravens spent nothing for him – didn’t even give up a pick, they just dropped back 10 spots in the 5th round of next year’s draft!  What a nothing burger.  And in exchange they got a chance to try out the very most productive receiver per dollar of cap space in the entire league.  That’s kind of crazy.  Of course you take that chance.  High potential reward for basically zero outlay.  You take that every time; it’s a great gamble.

I want to emphasize that I was just as frustrated as you were at the Ravens actions, or inaction, at the trade deadline.  I wanted them to get pass rush help – and Davante Adams too, but that was a pipe dream.  Eric DeCosta did make a play for Calais Campbell, but the Dolphins didn’t want to let him go.  All the moves the Ravens didn’t make are frustrating as hell; especially as this is clearly an all-in scenario, with the team a legitimate Super Bowl contender where one piece could put them over the top.  But given that they failed to make other moves, the Diontae Johnson gamble was a reasonable one; actually pretty clever.

Yes, the Ravens “cheap out” at Wide Receiver; yes they do it all the time.  But it’s also true that they have an MVP Quarterback with a top-5 cap number this season; and they spend to the cap every year.  They’re not cheap.  They just have to work with a budget.  The cap rules all.

Game Stats

Here are your stats for the game:

(Data from PFR)

Only five players with more than one target.  It was a run-heavy game plan.

Likely’s first QS since the first Steelers game five weeks ago!  You’d think they’d know to cover him.

Flowers’ 7th game this season with multiple explosive catches.

Bateman with only one catch, but he (and Lamar) made it count.

Andrews’s stat line again isn’t super impressive – no explosive plays – but again we see consistency and red zone production.  Those have been the hallmarks of his (now-) eleven-game streak:

Crucial element of the offense even when he’s not going for 90-plus.

Season Stats

(Data from PFR except last 3 cols)

Flowers breaks a thousand yards in his second season.  He’s 24 years old; on track to become the all-time most successful Ravens draft-pick at Wide Receiver.

Lamar had a great & efficient game vs the Steelers: 65% for a cool 9 yds-per-attempt with 3 TDs and 1 INT, for a passer rating of 115.4.  That’s a great rating.  The league’s second-highest-rated QB going into the week, Jared Goff, has a season rating of 110.4.  The reason I mention all that is: Lamar has been having such a great season that a game rating of 115.4 actually drags down his season-long rating.  Crazy.

Next Up

Merry Christmas to you & yours!

Then – not to be greedy, but we need the Chiefs to deliver us one more gift for the season, a road victory in Pittsburgh.  That would give us a half-game lead heading into the nightcap. Kansas City may not be feeling generous.  Having clinched, they may want to rest Mahomes and any other dinged-up starters.  That would be a lump of coal for Ravens fans

Then finally, the nightcap.  The Ravens head to Houston for a dangerous, dangerous game against a Texans team with the #1-ranked defense by DVOA.  I don’t need to tell you that the results could mean sad Christmas for Ravens fans.  Both games could go the wrong way.  (Go, road teams!)  But as Harbaugh said, rejoice:

Harbs with a Christmas message to start the presser pic.twitter.com/34kdUq73IZ

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 22, 2024

The Ravens have clinched a playoff berth, and the holiday season is here.

The post Anatomy of a Nearly-Indefensible Red Zone Play appeared first on Russell Street Report.

Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/12/24/street-talk/anatomy-of-a-nearly-indefensible-red-zone-play/